March 2021

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO played a prominent role. For February, the AO averaged +3.440. For March, it averaged +2.990. February closed with a very strong AO+ regime (+5.911 on February 26) and the AO remained strongly positive through March 30. A strong PNA- pattern developed after the first week of March and this could have been the trigger for the sequence of events that culminated in the exceptional warmth that occurred near mid-March.

Overall, the exceptional heat occurred within an enduring pattern that favored above to much above normal temperatures with only short breaks of colder weather (2/25-3/9 cool period but a smaller number of days with much below normal temperatures).

Select NYC Data:

February 1-24: Mean Temperature: 42.2°; Days 50° or above: 15; Days 60° or above: 4

1990-91 was one of our warmest periods on record, especially for that era

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
1220 PM EST FRIDAY MAR 12 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

AS OF 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON, THE TEMPERATURE AT BRIDGEPORT CT IS 65 
DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN 2012.

 

it's hotter than Tuesday!  it hit 70.0 here!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

March 6th 1990 NYC got 3-5" of snow...the next morning it was 13 degrees on the 7th...all that with a plus 4sd ao...a week later it was 85 degrees...a little snow in April and 90 degrees to close out the month...

wild weather!  1990-91 were crazy times

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the lowest relative humidity of the year so far at Newark at only 13%.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   70  18  13 

I want us to hit 100 with this kind of humidity in July!  70.0 here now!

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Loving the 12z runs of the Euro, Para GFS, GFS through day 10. Glorious, days and days of 100 degree heat

I look forward to you saying this in July ^^^^

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s over for the metro area, the fat lady has sung 

I cant wait for 90 degree heat come April and 100+ July

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

and 70.0 here on the south shore!

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant wait for 90 degree heat come April and 100+ July

good luck with either of those....

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

good luck with either of those....

it'll make him melt, which is good enough for me lol

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I want us to hit 100 with this kind of humidity in July!  70.0 here now!

NYC is on track for the 2nd driest March 1-15th on record. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Mar 15	Missing Count
1	1886-03-15	0.07	0
2	2021-03-15	0.16	4
3	1927-03-15	0.26	0
4	1894-03-15	0.30	0
-	1879-03-15	0.30	0
5	1873-03-15	0.38	0

[donsutherland1]

JFK: 69 degrees at 3 pm (old daily record: 68 degrees, 2012)

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: 69 degrees at 3 pm (old daily record: 68 degrees, 2012)

Don, what is JFK's earliest 70 degree temp....I imagine it's in February?

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC is on track for the 2nd driest March 1-15th on record. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Mar 15	Missing Count
1	1886-03-15	0.07	0
2	2021-03-15	0.16	4
3	1927-03-15	0.26	0
4	1894-03-15	0.30	0
-	1879-03-15	0.30	0
5	1873-03-15	0.38	0

Maybe we'll have a 1966 kind of summer.....

 

[jm1220]

Sea breeze made it to the barrier beaches. Wunderground temps there seem to be up to 10 degrees cooler than just inland. 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what is JFK's earliest 70 degree temp....I imagine it's in February?

 

I see a 71 (2007) On January 6th

Jan 26: 69 (1950)

Feb 27: 71 (1997)

 

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we'll have a 1966 kind of summer.....

 

The worst droughts since 2003 have been to our west. Very challenging for us to sustain an extended dry pattern. We are in one of the areas that have seen a steady increase in precipitation as the climate has warmed.

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what is JFK's earliest 70 degree temp....I imagine it's in February?

 

January 6, 2007: 71 degrees 

[weathermedic]

Dews in the teens-20's with RH values  mostly in the teens around the tri-state area. Red flag warnings for much of Connecticut and SWS for enhanced fire risk for much of the remaining area.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 6, 2007: 71 degrees 

wow 11 yr anniversary of the Jan 96 blizzard!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The worst droughts since 2003 have been to our west. Very challenging for us to sustain an extended dry pattern. We are in one of the areas that have seen a steady increase in precipitation as the climate has warmed.

 

1995 and 2002 were exceptionally dry, what did we have back then that we haven't seen since?

2010 was pretty dry too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

I see a 71 (2007) On January 6th

Jan 26: 69 (1950)

Feb 27: 71 (1997)

 

 

I guess real spring begins at 75 around here lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Sea breeze made it to the barrier beaches. Wunderground temps there seem to be up to 10 degrees cooler than just inland. 

66.4 here

[uncle W]

droughts usually dont last long around here since 1970...is there a deluge around the corner?...probably not soon but it will happen....

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same in January

Watch next week 

Watch for what? Rain showers. It’s over bro 

[Intensewind002]

Reached 70F here today, 12 degrees warmer than yesterday and easily the highest of the year so far, but it's already dropped down to 61 since the high 2 hours ago

[Cfa]

High of 70 here as well. Low was 46.

[STORMANLI]

South Commack joining the 70° club.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1995 and 2002 were exceptionally dry, what did we have back then that we haven't seen since?

2010 was pretty dry too.

 

The droughts between 1995 and 2002 were impressive. That was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. 2010 wasn’t as dry.  All our droughts since 2003 have been shorter  and less severe than those years. 1966 was in a class by itself. It’s estimated  that the drought in the 1960s was the worst in 300 to 400 years.

 

 

[CIK62]

Notice coastal areas stayed out of the ocean air today.          My highs here were    64,51,60,(68 today}

)

[donsutherland1]

Early clouds yielded to abundant sunshine in parts of the region sending temperatures soaring for another day. Parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas saw record high temperatures. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 65°
Boston: 65°
Bridgeport: 67° (old record: 65°, 2012)
Islip: 67° (old record: 65°, 1973 and 2012)
New Haven: 66° (old record: 63°, 1973)
New York City-JFK: 70° (old record: 68°, 1973)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2012)
New York City-NYC: 68°
Newark: 71°
Philadelphia: 71°
Providence: 65°
Poughkeepsie: 63°
Trenton: 69°
Westhampton: 67° (old record: 60°, 2012)

The early episode of spring is now concluding. Cooler weather will return this weekend. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks and 27% saw the temperature fall below 25°. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. In sum, the fairly strong cold shot for early next week is consistent with recent historical experience.

However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge. Nevertheless, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region.

Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. This warmth is now showing up on the CFSv2's week 3 maps.

Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will develop in the Rockies late tonight and continue into late Sunday or early Monday. Denver, Cheyenne, and possibly Casper, as well as the Nebraska Panhandle, will likely see heavy snowfall. Denver will likely pick up 8"-16" of snow, though there is greater uncertainty. Cheyenne will likely see 20"-30" of snow. That would set a new March record and could challenge that Cheyenne's all-time record snowstorm amount.

Cheyenne's March Snowfall Records:

Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990

Cheyenne's All-Time Snowfall Records:

Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -6.51 today. The SOI had been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.656 today. That exceeds the March record of +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.099 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.4° above normal).