March 2021

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

More than crazy, it's irritating.  As someone who ties holiday mood to cold weather (perhaps this is in the medical books somewhere), these diabolically placed 60 degree days just before Christmas which have seemed to occur almost every year since about 2013 have got to go.

 

The worst was this Christmas Eve. I still had about 6-8 inches of snow otg Christmas Eve and woke up to A green Christmas Morning. The Weather Channel should have given that storm one of its stupid winter storm names. They should have named it winter storm “&$?!!/&$/)($&” 

[uncle W]

growing up in the late 50's 60's NYC would be cold or have snow on the ground Christmas morning...1959-1963 Newark NJ had at least 2" of snow on the ground Christmas morning...then in 1964 NYC had a warm Christmas for the first time in years and it was a shock to me...it snowed 3" on Dec 20th 1964 and it looked like another white Christmas coming up...But a warm front on Christmas eve sent temperatures to near 50's by midnight and near 70 in Newark Christmas day...1965 was another warm depressing Christmas...1966 made up for the previous two years with a snowstorm Christmas eve...

[nyrangers1022]

Man people really get cranky about not having snow on the ground Xmas

[Rtd208]

A really nice day here.

Current temp 61 after a high of 66

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The worst was this Christmas Eve. I still had about 6-8 inches of snow otg Christmas Eve and woke up to A green Christmas Morning. The Weather Channel should have given that storm one of its stupid winter storm names. They should have named it winter storm “&$?!!/&$/)($&” 

too bad that storm was not a week later...would have taken us to 12/24 with a storm in progress

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Cfa said:

It’s crazy how many late Dec 60’s we’ve been seeing in recent years.

66 here currently, warmest day since Nov 27th which had a high of 67.

The warmth around the solstice since 2011 has  been unprecedented.

Data for December 18 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1937-12-18	64	39	0.10	0.0	0
2006-12-18	61	44	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-18	61	41	0.00	0.0	0
2016-12-18	59	31	0.07	0.0	1
1966-12-18	59	41	0.00	0.0	0
2001-12-18	58	43	0.31	0.0	0
2015-12-18	56	37	T	0.0	0
2012-12-18	56	44	0.52	0.0	0

 

Data for December 19 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1931-12-19	60	36	0.00	0.0	M
1967-12-19	58	40	0.00	0.0	0
2017-12-19	57	43	0.00	0.0	0

Data for December 21 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2013-12-21	64	42	T	0.0	0
2011-12-21	62	41	0.13	0.0	0
2018-12-21	61	50	1.37	0.0	0
1957-12-21	61	44	0.07	0.0	0
1990-12-21	59	46	0.25	0.0	0
2012-12-21	57	36	0.91	0.0	0
1973-12-21	57	26	2.00	T	T

Data for December 22 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2013-12-22	71	57	0.03	0.0	0
1998-12-22	65	23	0.07	0.0	0
1949-12-22	64	46	T	0.0	0
1967-12-22	63	39	0.28	0.0	0
1990-12-22	62	57	0.01	0.0	0
2015-12-22	61	52	0.06	0.0	0
2011-12-22	61	47	0.08	0.0	0

 

Data for December 23 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1990-12-23	67	58	0.31	0.0	0
2015-12-23	66	50	1.44	0.0	0
1949-12-23	63	33	0.16	T	0
1931-12-23	63	49	T	0.0	M
2013-12-23	62	42	0.53	0.0	0
2007-12-23	62	39	0.69	0.0	0
2006-12-23	60	46	0.64	0.0	0
2004-12-23	59	39	0.62	0.0	0
2019-12-23	57	31	0.00	0.0	0

 

Data for December 24 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2015-12-24	71	59	0.03	0.0	0
1990-12-24	64	30	0.45	0.0	0
1996-12-24	63	38	0.37	0.0	0
2020-12-24	60	37	0.43	0.0	0
1941-12-24	60	47	0.46	0.0	0

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1964-12-25	69	44	0.01	0.0	0
1982-12-25	68	40	0.02	0.0	0
2014-12-25	64	41	0.10	0.0	0
2015-12-25	63	54	0.03	0.0	0
2020-12-25	62	28	0.66	0.0	0

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared into the 60s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 61° (warmest since December 25)
Boston: 61° (warmest since December 1)
Bridgeport: 64° (old record: 63°, 2020; warmest since November 30)
Islip: 63° (warmest since December 13)
New York City: 64° (warmest since November 26)
Newark: 66° (warmest since November 26)
Philadelphia: 69° (warmest since November 11)
Poughkeepsie: 61° (warmest since December 25)

Tomorrow will likely be a few degrees cooler and then the warmest air of the season will arrive for Thursday and Friday.

Afterward, temperatures could begin to cool. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -8.09 today. The SOI has now been negative for 10 consecutive days. The last time that occurred was March 16-31, 2020 when the SOI was negative for 16 consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.094 today. Over the next few days, the AO is forecast to continue to rise sharply. The ensembles suggest that the AO could peak at or above +5.000. This would be a rare event in March. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.022 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.758 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/8/2021 at 2:36 PM, bluewave said:

This will be only the 6th time since 1991 that NYC had to wait until March for the first 60°+ day of the year. But it’s the first time following a warmer than average winter. So you can see how rare the winter south based blocking pattern was.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
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Year	First	Value	DJF AVG Temp
2015	03-26 (2015)	62	31.4
2003	03-16 (2003)	68	31.2
2014	03-11 (2014)	66	32.9
2010	03-08 (2010)	61	33.8
2004	03-01 (2004)	63	32.4

2021................................................36.1

south based blocking means more snow and cold in the south than up north?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/8/2021 at 2:03 PM, snowman19 said:

Hope everyone gets out to enjoy this glorious week of weather coming up. Looks amazing, we finally hit the 60’s! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing! I’ll be out practicing the bag pipes and doing Irish square dances in the warm weather :-) Gotta get ready for St. Paddy’s next week!

I cant wait until it hits 100 and you melt

[LibertyBell]

On 3/8/2021 at 1:26 PM, jm1220 said:

The “last hurrah” pattern that can give a late snow event can come back in April in those years while in a snowy Feb, the pattern warms up in March and shuts down the snow which might be what’s happening now. 

it seems like some winters have these extended breaks between major events....it happened in January after the big December event and March seems to be the break from what happened in February

[LibertyBell]

On 3/8/2021 at 4:11 PM, donsutherland1 said:

This could be kind of a replay of February where the core of the cold never reaches the East.

Don this pattern we're now seeing develop with a strong SE Ridge and fronts drying up before they reach us, could this be the beginning of the classic 11 yr bakeoff summer pattern?  In these 11 yr patterns you typically see very hot and very dry weather with very little rainfall and fronts dying before they reach us- do you think this might be the beginning of that?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The warmth around the solstice since 2011 has  been unprecedented.

Data for December 18 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1937-12-18	64	39	0.10	0.0	0
2006-12-18	61	44	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-18	61	41	0.00	0.0	0
2016-12-18	59	31	0.07	0.0	1
1966-12-18	59	41	0.00	0.0	0
2001-12-18	58	43	0.31	0.0	0
2015-12-18	56	37	T	0.0	0
2012-12-18	56	44	0.52	0.0	0

 

Data for December 19 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1931-12-19	60	36	0.00	0.0	M
1967-12-19	58	40	0.00	0.0	0
2017-12-19	57	43	0.00	0.0	0

Data for December 21 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2013-12-21	64	42	T	0.0	0
2011-12-21	62	41	0.13	0.0	0
2018-12-21	61	50	1.37	0.0	0
1957-12-21	61	44	0.07	0.0	0
1990-12-21	59	46	0.25	0.0	0
2012-12-21	57	36	0.91	0.0	0
1973-12-21	57	26	2.00	T	T

Data for December 22 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2013-12-22	71	57	0.03	0.0	0
1998-12-22	65	23	0.07	0.0	0
1949-12-22	64	46	T	0.0	0
1967-12-22	63	39	0.28	0.0	0
1990-12-22	62	57	0.01	0.0	0
2015-12-22	61	52	0.06	0.0	0
2011-12-22	61	47	0.08	0.0	0

 

Data for December 23 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1990-12-23	67	58	0.31	0.0	0
2015-12-23	66	50	1.44	0.0	0
1949-12-23	63	33	0.16	T	0
1931-12-23	63	49	T	0.0	M
2013-12-23	62	42	0.53	0.0	0
2007-12-23	62	39	0.69	0.0	0
2006-12-23	60	46	0.64	0.0	0
2004-12-23	59	39	0.62	0.0	0
2019-12-23	57	31	0.00	0.0	0

 

Data for December 24 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2015-12-24	71	59	0.03	0.0	0
1990-12-24	64	30	0.45	0.0	0
1996-12-24	63	38	0.37	0.0	0
2020-12-24	60	37	0.43	0.0	0
1941-12-24	60	47	0.46	0.0	0

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1964-12-25	69	44	0.01	0.0	0
1982-12-25	68	40	0.02	0.0	0
2014-12-25	64	41	0.10	0.0	0
2015-12-25	63	54	0.03	0.0	0
2020-12-25	62	28	0.66	0.0	0

I would love to see this W and NW wind in the middle of summer, Long Island would be hotter than NYC, just like it was today

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

So far JFK is the big warm and dry downslope flow winner at 65°.

000
SXUS51 KOKX 091757
OSOOKX
New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
100 PM EST TUE MAR 09 2021

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   SUNNY     63  27  25 W9G17     30.29F
LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY   60  28  29 NW13      30.26F
Kennedy Intl   MOSUNNY   65  29  25 W15G24    30.27F
Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   64  27  24 NW15      30.27F
Teterboro Arpt SUNNY     61  32  33 NW16G22   30.26F

this is what I want to see ALL summer.....it's what would make it hit 100 at the coast   triple digits on a west wind and low humidity and blue skies!

 

[Wxnyc]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

this is what I want to see ALL summer.....it's what would make it hit 100 at the coast   triple digits on a west wind and low humidity and blue skies!

 

Yeah , it’s all fine , with us having a house up in the Catskills, I live up there from May-September, I don’t get much past 90-92 on the hottest day. With relief every night, here in Brooklyn there are nights with temps above 80 all night. I’m not doing that , and my central air cost a fortune.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(38/53), or about +4.0.

EURO still with a Trace in a week.      GFS has 3" on the 23rd----fother for the new GFS by then.       CMC is the coldest the next 10 days, but No Snow.

46*(48%RH) here at 6am.      47* at 7am.   (down from 50* at midnight)       50* by 10am.      Back to 48* by Noon.          50* by 3pm.       51* by 4pm.

[bluewave]

Big temperature swing coming up. Temperatures will rise to near 70° on Thursday. Then another Arctic front will move through later in the weekend and drop the temperatures back into the 20s. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don this pattern we're now seeing develop with a strong SE Ridge and fronts drying up before they reach us, could this be the beginning of the classic 11 yr bakeoff summer pattern?  In these 11 yr patterns you typically see very hot and very dry weather with very little rainfall and fronts dying before they reach us- do you think this might be the beginning of that?

 

The evolution of the La Niña, the persistence of the western Atlantic ridge, especially if it links up to ridging over the Plains States, and precipitation will likely shape the kind of summer that lies ahead. From this vantage point, it looks to be warmer than normal, but a lot can change between now and then.

[the_other_guy]

28F And unexpectedly cold run this morning

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

28F And unexpectedly cold run this morning

good radiational cooling last night

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be fair and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Some parts of the region, especially around Philadelphia and interior New Jersey could see readings reach the 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow and Friday will likely see the warmest weather since late fall 2020. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

This weekend into Monday, a major snowstorm appears likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver. To date, Casper has received 41.8” of snow, which is 10.4” below normal. Following the weekend storm, Casper should have above normal snowfall.

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be fair and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Some parts of the region, especially around Philadelphia and interior New Jersey could see readings reach the 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow and Friday will likely see the warmest weather since late fall 2020. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

This weekend into Monday, a major snowstorm appears likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver. To date, Casper has received 41.8” of snow, which is 10.4” below normal. Following the weekend storm, Casper should have above normal snowfall.

The setup over the front range looks highly favorable for someone to see well over 4-5’ of snow. BDR GEFS ensemble circa 18z yesterday:

 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The setup over the front range looks highly favorable for someone to see well over 4-5’ of snow. BDR GEFS ensemble circa 18z yesterday:

 

0z Euro not nearly as eye-popping for Colorado but rather shifts its totals into Nebraska/Wyoming:

 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolution of the La Niña, the persistence of the western Atlantic ridge, especially if it links up to ridging over the Plains States, and precipitation will likely shape the kind of summer that lies ahead. From this vantage point, it looks to be warmer than normal, but a lot can change between now and then.

I see the spring birds are here and they are searching for mates and territory to build their nests, this is good to see!

11 yr cycle summers, Don, do you see a connection in which turn out to be the hottest, the ones during a La Nina, El Nino or neutral phases?

The hottest 11 yr cycle summers.....1944, 1955, 1966, 1999, 2010....

Not as hot (but still had very hot stretches)  1933, 1977, 1988

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Wxnyc said:

Yeah , it’s all fine , with us having a house up in the Catskills, I live up there from May-September, I don’t get much past 90-92 on the hottest day. With relief every night, here in Brooklyn there are nights with temps above 80 all night. I’m not doing that , and my central air cost a fortune.

with low humidity its much better and the temps drop more at night, I keep window ACs in my bedrooms dont have central AC.

 

I would love to see scientists create a device that sucks humidity out of the air and converts it to usable fresh water

 

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big temperature swing coming up. Temperatures will rise to near 70° on Thursday. Then another Arctic front will move through later in the weekend and drop the temperatures back into the 20s. 

 

 

Chris, what do you think of this snow threat Walt has been talking about for next week?

 

[donsutherland1]

Today's preliminary value of the AO was +3.476. On February 11, it was -5.254. The previous highest AO within 30 days of a -5.000 or below figure was +3.351 on April 21, 2013. 30 days earlier on March 22, the AO was -5.240.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I see the spring birds are here and they are searching for mates and territory to build their nests, this is good to see!

11 yr cycle summers, Don, do you see a connection in which turn out to be the hottest, the ones during a La Nina, El Nino or neutral phases?

The hottest 11 yr cycle summers.....1944, 1955, 1966, 1999, 2010....

Not as hot (but still had very hot stretches)  1933, 1977, 1988

 

There were a mixture of ENSO states involved. The sample size is too small to draw firm conclusions.

[gmendevils8204]

15 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Man people really get cranky about not having snow on the ground Xmas

I’d take a brisk, sunny morning but I don’t necessarily need snow. Just doesn’t feel like Christmas to me when it’s 60 degrees out.

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's preliminary value of the AO was +3.476. On February 11, it was -5.254. The previous highest AO within 30 days of a -5.000 or below figure was +3.351 on April 21, 2013. 30 days earlier on March 22, the AO was -5.240.

What goes up must come down 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

with low humidity its much better and the temps drop more at night, I keep window ACs in my bedrooms dont have central AC.

 

I would love to see scientists create a device that sucks humidity out of the air and converts it to usable fresh water

 

 

The scientists have created a device that sucks humidity out of the air and converts it to usable fresh water. It's called a dehumidifier and is available at retailers nationwide! You'd just need to add some minerals and what not to make the distilled water drinkable. There are also larger systems for water needs: http://www.drinkable-air.com/info.htm.