bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 More confirmation of the GFS cold bias fix. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 4:21 PM, MJO812 said: I have my shovels ready Expand did you kill someone 3 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 NYC might start March with eight straight days with a minimum 32 or lower...March 2019 just missed when the 3rd had a min of 33...I believe the record is 17 from March 1st to 17th 1960... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 4:49 PM, Allsnow said: Next week will hit 70 bank on it Expand Yeah pretty easily if not 75 honestly. We hit 80 in Feb and 80s in March so it's not a huge stretch. I hope it stays mild afterwards. Hopefully models are wrong on the colder 2nd half. 60s/70s with sunny, dry days are some of my favorites in the spring/fall. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Weenie gfs run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 11:01 PM, MJO812 said: Weenie gfs run Expand Nice storm on the 18th, but lala land will be gone in 6 hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Favorable mjo with negative epo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Decent winter for nyc lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 10:06 PM, SnoSki14 said: Yeah pretty easily if not 75 honestly. We hit 80 in Feb and 80s in March so it's not a huge stretch. I hope it stays mild afterwards. Hopefully models are wrong on the colder 2nd half. 60s/70s with sunny, dry days are some of my favorites in the spring/fall. Expand I don’t drop my wanting of winter until April. IMO winter is already short enough. Today felt like one of the coldest days of the winter due to the wind. Won’t mind the nice stretch coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 11:43 PM, Allsnow said: Decent winter for nyc lol Expand We were as backloaded as Glasgow was frontloaded. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Tomorrow will be fair and continued cold. Sunday will be somewhat warmer and still dry. Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible Friday through the weekend. Afterward, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. The 60° isotherm could extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November. Toward the latter part of the second week of the month or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. The SOI was -6.94 today. The SOI has now been negative for six consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 14-20, 2020 when the SOI was negative for seven consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.805 today. On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.892 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.719 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 11:54 PM, mattinpa said: I don’t drop my wanting of winter until April. IMO winter is already short enough. Today felt like one of the coldest days of the winter due to the wind. Won’t mind the nice stretch coming up. Expand Indeed it did feel like one of the coldest. I wore a hard hat this morning outside, and my skull felt like it was frozen. Never felt like that skiing, not even in sub zero temps... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 5:24 PM, Will - Rutgers said: i lied and i came back because i have nowhere else to go also i just want to say rclab, you are an incredibly pleasant person. Expand Good evening Will, I took Brian’s ‘weenie’ and bid a ‘Thank You’. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 1:04 AM, Dark Star said: Indeed it did feel like one of the coldest. I wore a hard hat this morning outside, and my skull felt like it was frozen. Never felt like that skiing, not even in sub zero temps... Expand Indeed. I just went to the mailbox in my big coat and hat and was still anxious to get back inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Now see this>>>>> 18Z GFS On the 18th. 15" of Snow, 32* highs????? Boy, the new GFS has its work cut out for it on its very first day of operation.........24 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 538A/6. Good morning. No threads from me on any upcoming snow for at least another day or more. Right now, any promising discussion of snow from myself, after ~ the 13th onward needs ro be reserved for the nw suburbs thread. Have no confidence on when. 00Z/6 modeling differs, with the EC-EPS overall colder than the GFS-GEFS. Yet, both ensemble systems bring snow acc of 2" or more to LI by the 20th. Part of that may be climo. So, my guess, some sort of unknown amount of snowfall is probably coming to LI in mid -late March, but when?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 4:19 PM, MJO812 said: Expand When is Easter this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(36/52), or +2.0. 32degs.(52%RH) here at 6am. 34* by Noon. All that snow/cold for the 18th. is gone and T's are 20 degrees higher then, than two runs ago. GFS going out in its vogue and milieu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 5:10 PM, Brian5671 said: yep-a start around 7pm is perfect. Expand April 2003 and April 2018 were both very decent all day snowfalls, did you shovel either of those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 5:03 PM, bluewave said: The AO reversal in February continues to set records. This is the first February with a daily -5 reading and only a monthly -1 average. The previous -5 drops in 2010, 1978, and 1969 all had -3 and lower monthly averages. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table 2021 -2.484 -1.191 2010 -2.587 -4.266 1978 -0.347 -3.014 1969 -2.967 -3.114 Expand Chris why are there two sets of numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 4:49 PM, Allsnow said: Next week will hit 70 bank on it Expand On 3/5/2021 at 4:49 PM, Allsnow said: Next week will hit 70 bank on it Expand welp I guess it's time to shut the heat off then you know who is probably going to say it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 11:43 PM, Allsnow said: Decent winter for nyc lol Expand it's been categorized as an "extreme" winter for NYC on the WSI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 10:30 PM, bluewave said: First time since 1950 that NYC had no measurable snowfall first week of March with such a low warmest minimum. 2014 was the only recent year that came close. It was also the last time NYC had more than 25” of snow in February. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Min Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7 Snowfall 1 1960-03-07 21 14.8 2 1978-03-07 25 5.0 3 1950-03-07 30 T 4 2006-03-07 31 1.3 - 1969-03-07 31 5.6 5 2021-03-07 32 0.0 - 2014-03-07 32 0.1 - 1952-03-07 32 5.3 6 2019-03-07 33 10.4 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2021 26.0 0 2020 T 0 2019 2.6 0 2018 4.9 0 2017 9.4 0 2016 4.0 0 2015 13.6 0 2014 29.0 0 Expand March 2014 we missed snowstorms to our south that hit DC to PHL, we made up for that in 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 9:19 PM, forkyfork said: did you kill someone Expand no but he might be planning to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 11:58 PM, bluewave said: We were as backloaded as Glasgow was frontloaded. Expand I think this should be classified as a bookend winter with December and February both being very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 7:06 PM, MJO812 said: Beautiful out Just came back from a nice jog Expand Ant, where's your shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:55 AM, LibertyBell said: I think this should be classified as a bookend winter with December and February both being very good. Expand This was the 2nd most backloaded DJF period on Long Island since 2010. Only Nemo in 2013 featured a more lopsided February snowfall total relative to December and January. 09-10 was more a bookend winter on Long Island. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2012-2013 0.6 3.3 31.4 35.3 2020-2021 7.5 1.1 24.9 33.5 2013-2014 8.1 25.2 24.5 57.8 2009-2010 25.3 6.4 21.7 53.4 2016-2017 3.2 14.0 14.7 31.9 2014-2015 0.4 30.2 13.4 44.0 2015-2016 T 24.8 13.2 38.0 2010-2011 14.9 34.4 3.9 53.2 2018-2019 T 0.9 3.5 4.4 2017-2018 6.0 22.0 1.4 29.4 2011-2012 T 3.8 0.6 4.4 2019-2020 4.2 2.5 0.0 6.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:47 AM, LibertyBell said: April 2003 and April 2018 were both very decent all day snowfalls, did you shovel either of those? Expand I cant remember on 2003 4/18 I just let melt even though it was 8 inches. I have an SUV so just drove over it. It was gone in 2 days. April 18 was an early morning to noon snow here if I recall correctly. Great event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:57 AM, LibertyBell said: Ant, where's your shovel? Expand In my room 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 10:40 AM, wdrag said: 538A/6. Good morning. No threads from me on any upcoming snow for at least another day or more. Right now, any promising discussion of snow from myself, after ~ the 13th onward needs ro be reserved for the nw suburbs thread. Have no confidence on when. 00Z/6 modeling differs, with the EC-EPS overall colder than the GFS-GEFS. Yet, both ensemble systems bring snow acc of 2" or more to LI by the 20th. Part of that may be climo. So, my guess, some sort of unknown amount of snowfall is probably coming to LI in mid -late March, but when?? Expand Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees. Over now but still lots of dark clouds! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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