The Iceman Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 06z 3k nam... Game on! Mt holly better hope it's wrong as it has some areas that aren't under a winter weather advisory getting 4-6" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Same but more like 2" or so w/a thump and w/the same time line. Completely done by 3pm w/temps 36-37ish. Roads wet but I'll have to shovel a 1"+ of heavy slop from the pavements... I see you caved and went with some accums finally. Wise man are you. Rates will be decent during this. Ratios not so much but surfaces will cave rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That banding feature looks like a summertime tstorm front. Im willing to bet those that manage to remain snow under it pickup a quick 2-4" with some 5" lollis reported. Most guidance is hanging onto the cold just long enough now to not want to never flip my area Tongan until the final few minutes. This is the winter that just wants to trend the right way. What is interesting is last few runs over the guidance keep shifting the snow gradient farther SE. I think someone is in for a surprise today just outside the city. Could be dead wrong though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: What is interesting is last few runs over the guidance keep shifting the snow gradient farther SE. I think someone is in for a surprise today just outside the city. Could be dead wrong though lol I think you are right. I mentioned this yesterday with the mesos and Canadians but how the nams seemed 'off ' again. Now they are jumping on at the last minute. It also was 2 degrees colder than forecast last night which will make a difference imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think you are right. I mentioned this yesterday with the mesos and Canadians but how the nams seemed 'off ' again. Now they are jumping on at the last minute. It also was 2 degrees colder than forecast last night which will make a difference imho. I mean like you mentioned this thing looks like a line of thunderstorms on composite radar sims. I have to imagine the rates should keep the column snow for pretty long for whoever can start out frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 29F / DP 25F Definitely thought I'd be colder at this time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 29F / DP 25F Definitely thought I'd be colder at this time... 27F here. Plenty cold. Should be a nice quick thump then we welcome spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 27F here. Plenty cold. Should be a nice quick thump then we welcome spring? Reading 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Reading 31F Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Latest hrrr colder....95% snow now with 4" here. Probably mostly on old snow but a nice refresh. All guidance on board for 3-6" here now. I dont buy it. My bar is set at 2.5" 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Latest hrrr colder....95% snow now with 4" here. Probably mostly on old snow but a nice refresh. All guidance on board for 3-6" here now. I dont buy it. My bar is set at 2.5" 28F I'm just looking forward to a couple hours of snow at good rates and yeah this be last we see flakes for some time. Weekend looks wet w/temps near 50F... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm just looking forward to a couple hours of snow at good rates and yeah this be last we see flakes for some time. Weekend looks wet w/temps near 50F... Extended ens means show what the Feb pattern was 'supposed to be in a Nina heading into March. SER, 50/50 high, -PNA, TPV anchored over the N Pole. All signs point to an early spring for a change. That would be awesome! I like fishing for early April striped bass and weakfish in the 50s and 60s not the 30s and low 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, wkd said: These snow depth maps on the NAMs have been terrible lately. Had about the same last storm...I remember because I posted it. So the 1" it showed turned into 8" of snow here. Looking forward to some snow tv shortly. Radar shows it moving in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Extended ens means show what the Feb pattern was 'supposed to be in a Nina heading into March. SER, 50/50 high, -PNA, TPV anchored over the N Pole. All signs point to an early spring for a change. That would be awesome! I like fishing for early April striped bass and weakfish in the 50s and 60s not the 30s and low 40s. I like all of that as well if it stays in the 50s or 60. I just don't want a early blow torch which last though Aug/Sept. Nothing worse than a looong Summer... * Just noticed my income tax return was deposited into my bank account overnight. Today's storm could fail completely and I'll still be in a good mood... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Nothing worse than a looong Summer... Only thing worse is reading you complain about for 5 months Eta: joking of course, but yeah extended HHH isn't exactly my cup of tea either. I live here to enjoy 4 diverse seasons, not 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 As l 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Only thing worse is reading you complain about for 5 months As long as we receive a good amount of T-storms/severe weather I'll keep myself in check... 31F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I like all of that as well if it stays in the 50s or 60. I just don't want a early blow torch which last though Aug/Sept. Nothing worse than a looong Summer... * Just noticed my income tax return was deposited into my bank account overnight. Today's storm could fail completely and I'll still be in a good mood... Actually, I like a nice string of 90’s in April, more often than not it signals a cooler than normal summer is on the way. I’m under a WWA, the end of my street isn’t Setting my bar at 2.5”, mainly on the existing snow on snow on snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Actually, I like a nice string of 90’s in April, more often than not it signals a cooler than normal summer is on the way. I’m under a WWA, the end of my street isn’t Setting my bar at 2.5”, mainly on the existing snow on snow on snow on snow. Speaking of snow on snow, before we entered the string of snowy wintry weather late in Jan thru today we still had piles around from the mid Dec storm. Not sure if that counts or not but if so, we would have had snowpack since mid Dec here. Also, it was a normal progression this season into prime climo. We never really had any torch or thaw. We just got.progressively cooler/colder since Jan 1 essentially. And now we look to go progressively milder (relative). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: As l As long as we receive a good amount of T-storms/severe weather I'll keep myself in check... 31F I thought I read somewhere that reed timmer (chaser) hinted this would be a late start for severe but also that there is a higher risk for more extreme/historic outbreaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought I read somewhere that reed timmer (chaser) hinted this would be a late start for severe but also that there is a higher risk for more extreme/historic outbreaks? I have no idea how they could possibly predict this. Maybe some insight but certainly wouldn't take it too seriously. Much like winter outlooks which fail more times than not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Snowing in Lancaster, radar looks solid. Nice returns around the M/D line... 31F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Snow squall warnings up in Lancaster and just west of Readings. Roads will cave quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 NWS 8:46am update...including Philly/Del so more south. 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Sterling just extended the WWA to Baltimore and DC proper. Will Mt holly follow and extend down to 95.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: NWS 8:46am update...including Philly/Del so more south. 32F I'm sorry but if they are expecting 1-2"in a hour to fall, they really need to update those areas to winter weather advisory. Don't understand why they are erring on the side of caution here... Going to be a lot of people complete caught of guard as is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: NWS 8:46am update...including Philly/Del so more south. 32F Sounds like sun angle won't have much of an impact until after the fact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Skies darkening rapidly in the city now. Very heavy returns just to the southwest. A wall of snow is encroaching on the city. Travel should quickly become challenging ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: I'm sorry but if they are expecting 1-2"in a hour to fall, they really need to update those areas to winter weather advisory. Don't understand why they are erring on the side of caution here... Going to be a lot of people complete caught of guard as is... I agree. The radar really juiced up within the past hour...waiting for the thump. 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Radar looks good, precip faster than expected. Dc/md overachieving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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