ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 WXSIM likes this "event" more than the last one for snow....by the way not buying the 31 for a high....if I was forecasting I would make this a solid 34 in my area....but what do i know.... Monday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 17 to 23. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I think this will come down to how cold we end up getting on Sunday night. Places that drop into the low 20s or teens will have a shot at 1-3". Right now that looks like N and W of 95 but with the snow cover in place, there's definitely a shot that immediate burbs could see some accumulation as well since rates seem decent. Don't see this being anything more than white rain for the city and easy of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliviajames Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 It looks like rates could approach .5 - .75 an hour for a few hours. If models don’t back down on the intensity I think NW of Philly could be 2-4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2-4 for the LV with lollipops of 6 in. This storm has the potential to be labeled as an over performer for many if the convective portion gets going. Do not underestimate the snowfall rates which can easily overcome any sun angle crap even on treated roads. A nice cover for the dirty snow along the roads right now and 4 inches will nearly give me over 60 in for the year in Macungie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Channel 69 met insists this is rain for Allentown, Reading Lehigh Valley south because the models have been wrong all winter 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Channel 69 met insists this is rain for Allentown, Reading Lehigh Valley south because the models have been wrong all winter I needed a good laugh from accuwrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Canadian models (ggem, rgem, hdrps) are insisting this is 3-6 hrs of heavy snow at 1-2"/ hr. Increasing with each run. NAMs are nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Canadian models (ggem, rgem, hdrps) are insisting this is 3-6 hrs of heavy snow at 1-2"/ hr. Increasing with each run. NAMs are nothing like it. Icon likes it too.. all snow for se pa. Plus check out the euro: Really the nams are the only one that don't give se pa anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Icon likes it too.. all snow for se pa. Plus check out the euro: Really the nams are the only one that don't give se pa anything. Whatever happens it looks like these will be the last flakes SE PA sees for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12km NAM def improved. Brings in precip faster which is key. Gotta get it in here b4 11... I’ll be happy to see a burst of heavy snow in NE OT man I hope 00z/6z gfs verify would be a perfect end of winter chase. Classic spring like interior NE snow bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Here's what local NBC and ABC outlets are seeing this morning as far as accumulation. It's definitely a quick mover (4 hours or so?) and horrible timing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Looks to me that by late afternoon we may end up with only an inch or two of additional snow accumulation due to a possible period of rain. In any case I'm going to enjoy another round of snow coming during daylight hours. This has been a great winter in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, wkd said: Looks to me that by late afternoon we may end up with only an inch or two of additional snow accumulation due to a possible period of rain. In any case I'm going to enjoy another round of snow coming during daylight hours. This has been a great winter in that respect. If you want stickage this is last thing you want. Overnight would be more ideal for any sort of accumulation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12 hours ago, RedSky said: Channel 69 met insists this is rain for Allentown, Reading Lehigh Valley south because the models have been wrong all winter They are horrible, ever since Hannah left that weather product has been garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS This really looks to me like one of those events where every 100 feet of elevation will make a difference... Monday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill ranging from 17 to 24. Wind south around 9 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, penndotguy said: They are horrible, ever since Hannah left that weather product has been garbage. I find them almost pure comedy. They seem like the a highschool homeroom TV channel...mistakes left and right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Whatever happens it looks like these will be the last flakes SE PA sees for a while. Way too early to say that. March is a weird month, you can have a +nao/+ao/-pna and still get snow.. all it takes is one perfectly tracked bowling ball. It's become pretty rare that we get completely skunked in March. I bet there will be one more 'threat' after this one that comes probably after the first week of March. If not though, still a great winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Way too early to say that. March is a weird month, you can have a +nao/+ao/-pna and still get snow.. all it takes is one perfectly tracked bowling ball. It's become pretty rare that we get completely skunked in March. I bet there will be one more 'threat' after this one that comes probably after the first week of March. If not though, still a great winter. March is the best month for elevation driven events....the way this year has gone....I suspect snow is not done in much of the NW philly burbs over 500 ft ASL.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: If you want stickage this is last thing you want. Overnight would be more ideal for any sort of accumulation... If it comes down hard enough it will stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: If it comes down hard enough it will stick. Then melts 10 minutes later (on paved surfaces) when it stops w/many temps above 32f tomorrow...mid-upper 30s by afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Then melts 10 minutes later (on paved surfaces) when it stops w/many temps above 32f tomorrow...mid-upper 30s by afternoon. It didn’t t melt 10 mins after on roads this past week. Stop just stop and besides who cares if it melts on streets. It always does when the sun comes out and roads are treated. That is what Penndot/local municipalities get our tax money for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I don't care about roads too much for tomorrow, I'm hoping that whatever we get will help me get through next weekend with some semblance of a snowpack, which would be the icing on the cake for this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, KamuSnow said: I don't care about roads too much for tomorrow, I'm hoping that whatever we get will help me get through next weekend with some semblance of a snowpack, which would be the icing on the cake for this month. I think you'll get that to save your pile for a bit but it's going to take a hit next week...it will be smaller by next weekend IMO but not dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I like my location out in Gap no doubt.... Would love to be a little higher (only 480 feet in Gap) but looking at this as a bonus event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It didn’t t melt 10 mins after on roads this past week. Stop just stop and besides who cares if it melts on streets. It always does when the sun comes out and roads are treated. That is what Penndot/local municipalities get our tax money for. Sun doesn't have to come out this time of year... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: If you want stickage this is last thing you want. Overnight would be more ideal for any sort of accumulation... I'm probably wierd in this respect, but I get more enjoyment out of seeing the snow fall0 than how much if any accumulates. Age I guess, although I've got a tractor/loader so accumulation is not really a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, wkd said: I'm probably wierd in this respect, but I get more enjoyment out of seeing the snow fall0 than how much if any accumulates. Age I guess, although I've got a tractor/loader so accumulation is not really a problem. Not at all. For myself, if it doesn't stick on pavements/roads , still alright but kinda meaningless. However during the holidays I'll take any sort of snow...just seeing it fall along w/the lights is pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not at all. For myself, if it doesn't stick on pavements/roads , still alright but kinda meaningless. However during the holidays I'll take any sort of snow...just seeing it fall along w/the lights is pretty cool. ×1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sun doesn't have to come out this time of year... It’s not even worth it with you anymore. At ANY time of the year roads that are treated will melt once precip has let up or ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Lets do it! Quick refresh. Then the warmup. In fine calling it a season after this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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