Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

Yeah, 2012 really didn't take off until very late spring.  Then it accelerated rapidly.  I thought 2012 was farther along at this point as well.

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Does anyone know what the highest percentage recorded is for at least some level of drought in the lower 48?  This is not a good way to enter summer with that much D0 and higher on the map.

The Drought Monitor has been around since 2000.  Since then, the record high is in July 2012.  At one point, 80% of the US was in D0+ with about 64% in D1+

[A-L-E-K]

thread has taken a dark turn

[IWXwx]

[CheeselandSkies]

15 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Elaborate, please.

[TimB]

I’ve been seeing 2012 in this year since the late February pattern change. Data is starting to back that up. Still desperately hoping I’m wrong.

[A-L-E-K]

Idk man

[Chicago Storm]

I’ve been seeing 2012 in this year since the late February pattern change. Data is starting to back that up. Still desperately hoping I’m wrong.

definitely not.


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[SchaumburgStormer]

Outside of the midweek potential, definitely has the warm and dry look in the extended. Making 2012 comparisons is laughable. 

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Outside of the midweek potential, definitely has the warm and dry look in the extended. Making 2012 comparisons is laughable. 

To the extent that 2012 was a generational event and comparing any year to it is like comparing any tornado outbreak to 4/27/11, absolutely. I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

[SchaumburgStormer]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To the extent that 2012 was a generational event and comparing any year to it is like comparing any tornado outbreak to 4/27/11, absolutely. I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

If we are going to start making comparisons to decade defining events, that is probably a good policy. A lot of things need to fall right (or wrong depending on your opinion) to get something like that again. 

Now, out west on the other hand 

[madwx]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Elaborate, please.

The MJO is moving into phases 8-1-2 which is an active weather look for the central US in the spring

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Elaborate, please.

Studies have shown that F2 and above tornadoes are 15 times more likely when the MJO is in phase 8, 1 and 2. As the MJO moves through 8 into 1, it usually correlates with a collapse of the Pacific jet and creating a semi stationary long wave trough near the four corners, which in turn allows short waves to eject into tornado alley. Dr. Gensini at NIU has written about it and I was able to attend a workshop where he used May 19-30, 2019 as a prime example (map below). He is researching it for use as a tool in sub seasonal forecasting. If it plays out like it did in '19, a lot of outlooks of an active mid- and late severe season will verify. The GEFS forecasts this scenario from days 9-14 before going zonal (day 10 below.)

[IWXwx]

14 minutes ago, madwx said:

The MJO is moving into phases 8-1-2 which is an active weather look for the central US in the spring

lol You posted that at the same time I was typing up a reply. Yours is much more succinct though. lol

[CheeselandSkies]

Well, that alone would work against a 2012 analog, at least in this part of the country, lol.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are going to start making comparisons to decade defining events, that is probably a good policy. A lot of things need to fall right (or wrong depending on your opinion) to get something like that again. 

Now, out west on the other hand 

Oh believe me, “wrong” is my opinion. I’m hoping there’s never a repeat of 2012 and would almost argue that rooting for it is sociopathic.

[Chicago Storm]

Oh believe me, “wrong” is my opinion. I’m hoping there’s never a repeat of 2012 and would almost argue that rooting for it is sociopathic.

2012 was great.


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[CheeselandSkies]

55 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

2012 was great.


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There's always gotta be one...

[Geoboy645]

One plus about an 8-1-2 progression is that they at least bring the chance for a much warmer and wetter pattern the next few weeks. They tend to cause at least a few days with MCS's and 80's this time of year. It would be nice to get a few of them, we really need the rain. 

[Chicago Storm]

I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

The drought out west, which is currently more significant than it was at the same time in late April 2012, is really the only thing comparable at this point. So that’s not much to go off of.


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[Chicago Storm]

Outside of the midweek potential, definitely has the warm and dry look in the extended. 

Overall warm yes, but definitely not dry.


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[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Overall warm yes, but definitely not dry.


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Yeah, shot from the hip a bit this morning without really digging too much into the guidance before I had to be in court. Sim precip maps really don't give a great idea in terms of actual QPF with wider intervals between frames. 

[WestMichigan]

15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah, shot from the hip a bit this morning without really digging too much into the guidance before I had to be in court. Sim precip maps really don't give a great idea in terms of actual QPF with wider intervals between frames. 

With the dryness we have had so far and everything weakening as it gets closer in I fully expect these totals to be high.  Riding seasonal trends until they fail.

[A-L-E-K]

end of euro looks good, thing we're finally breaking on through

[WaryWarren]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

breaking on through

 

[Chicago Storm]

Per Bill Snyder at WGN, it is now the driest spring on record to date for Chicago since 1915.

 

 

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[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Per Bill Snyder at WGN, it is now the driest spring on record to date for Chicago since 1915.

 

 

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Percent of normal precip in the last 30 days

 

60 day isn't much better around Chicago

[hawkeye_wx]

After another cool day today, models show nothing but 60s, 70s, and 80s into next week.

The midweek system is dying for Iowa and other northern areas.  In one way that's a bummer because some decent rain would be nice, but having the system sweep through much more quickly than it appeared a few days ago will allow more warmth to quickly move back in from the plains.  I've had enough of the 40s and 50s.

[A-L-E-K]

extended is bad again, sad

[Chicago Storm]

extended is bad again, sad

Definitely not.


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