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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

madwx

By madwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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HillsdaleMIWeather
HillsdaleMIWeather

Will we actually get a decent severe outbreak this season, I think everyone here is craving a good moderate or high risk day to track

Hoosier
Hoosier

Obviously there's more to it than this, but with the western/southwestern drought already pretty far along and likely to continue/worsen and the bona fide Nina, it does set off some alarm bells in my

andyhb
andyhb

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
On 4/13/2021 at 4:37 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Not a significant enough eruption.

Yea.  It's a major eruption for St. Vincent, but it's not even close to a global-scale event like Pinatubo.  An eruption of that scale isn't predicted.  There are a few other volcanoes around the world that could do some climate alteration if they decided to wake up, but none of those are active right now.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


ENS have been on that for a while.

Playing out as expected.


.

I'm glad the ensembles have been showing this, because the GFS operational had previously been depicting below normal temps right on through the end of its run.

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I'm glad the ensembles have been showing this, because the GFS operational had previously been depicting below normal temps right on through the end of its run.

Typical GFS.  Was bothered because the Euro had some nasty cold runs too.  It will still take time to push the Hudson Bay cold vortex out, but the Pacific looks better with the jet undercutting instead of building a PNA ridge into Alaska like before.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


nice cherry pick.


.

The GFS had the same thing this morning in its 0z run last night, the normal upper low stuck and not going anywhere soon.  This talked about pattern change gets more pathetic the closer we get.  A 2-3 day warm up isn’t a pattern change.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NTXYankee said:

The GFS had the same thing this morning in its 0z run last night, the normal upper low stuck and not going anywhere soon.  This talked about pattern change gets more pathetic the closer we get.  A 2-3 day warm up isn’t a pattern change.

The large scale pattern change will be occurring as expected next week.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Some just looking for something to complain about. There is a very large change coming and May should be very active.

I don’t care about active, sure storms would be nice but I live in Ohio and Central Ohio to be exact.  We either watch states around us or within other parts of Ohio get storms.  If it doesn’t start active here, it’s not going to happen the rest of the season, happens every time.  I just want the blowtorch now.  And yes I am cranky and impatient it’s April 20th not November.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, NTXYankee said:

I don’t care about active, sure storms would be nice but I live in Ohio and Central Ohio to be exact.  We either watch states around us or within other parts of Ohio get storms.  If it doesn’t start active here, it’s not going to happen the rest of the season, happens every time.  I just want the blowtorch now.  And yes I am cranky and impatient it’s April 20th not November.

There is a complaint thread, go there and keep it out of here.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Some just looking for something to complain about. There is a very large change coming and May should be very active.

Indeed. I've been hitting for a while now that the tail end of April into the start of May is when the change would occur, though there was the possibility that it could be delayed a touch. The good news is that it really doesn't look like it will be delayed at all, with the large scale change occurring next week.

The mid-week trough/storm system next week is already gaining a ton of attention because of the Euro output for widespread/significant severe opportunity across the Central US. However, I wouldn't fully jump on that one as of yet, as often times the lead trough tends to be the "sacrifice" for the main pattern change. Beyond next week, it appears we could have the PAC jet extension come into the equation for the first week or two of May. If that does indeed occur, it'll be off to the races.

Things are definitely looking up those for those looking at more consistent warmth/t'storm/severe t'storm opportunities across the Central US. There could be some bumps in the road, especially since AO/NAO/Canada lobe will try to fight back at times, but things are looking positive for now overall.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Indeed. I've been hitting for a while now that the tail end of April into the start of May is when the change would occur, though there was the possibility that it could be delayed a touch. The good news is that it really doesn't look like it will be delayed at all, with the large scale change occurring next week.

The mid-week trough/storm system next week is already gaining a ton of attention because of the Euro output for widespread/significant severe opportunity across the Central US. However, I wouldn't fully jump on that one as of yet, as often times the lead trough tends to be the "sacrifice" for the main pattern change. Beyond next week, it appears we could have the PAC jet extension come into the equation for the first week or two of May. If that does indeed occur, it'll be off to the races.

Things are definitely looking up those for those looking at more consistent warmth/t'storm/severe t'storm opportunities across the Central US. There could be some bumps in the road, especially since AO/NAO/Canada lobe will try to fight back at times, but things are looking positive for now overall.

I think the system next week and early May stuff, then we get a break before the last 10 days of May are fire.

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StormfanaticInd

StormfanaticInd

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Severe weather season is to reactivate.:lightning: 



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   There is good agreement in medium-range guidance that an upper
   trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and
   Southeast on Day 4/Saturday. A warm front should lift northward
   through the day across parts of central AL/GA and into SC as a
   surface low develops eastward across the lower OH Valley to the
   central Appalachians. There is some concern that a strong low-level
   jet will shift quickly eastwards across these areas, possibly
   outrunning the better low-level moisture return. Boundary-layer
   winds veered to nearly westerly should occur as the low-level jet
   core develops eastward. Still, the increasing low-level moisture,
   strong deep-layer shear, and some eastward advection of steepened
   mid-level lapse rates should overlap along/south of the warm front.
   Any thunderstorms that can form in this regime and remain surface
   based will pose a threat for all severe hazards. Additional severe
   convection may develop Saturday afternoon along an eastward-moving
   cold front. Convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning given
   the strong ascent/isentropic lift associated with the low-level jet,
   and these morning thunderstorms may slow the northward progress of
   the warm front. Regardless, given latest trends in guidance
   suggesting a farther north position of the warm front by Saturday
   afternoon, have expanded the 15% severe area to include more of
   central AL/GA and southern SC.

   The upper trough should continue eastward into the western Atlantic
   on Day 5/Sunday, with rich low-level moisture confined to parts of
   the FL Peninsula. Given minimal large-scale ascent forecast over
   this region, overall severe potential ahead of a cold front appears
   too low to include any severe probabilities. Medium-range guidance
   remains in fairly good agreement that another large-scale upper
   trough will advance eastward from the western CONUS to the Plains in
   the Day 6/Monday to Day 7/Tuesday time frame. The past several runs
   of the deterministic ECMWF show a very favorable setup for organized
   severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe hazards across
   parts of central TX into OK and southern KS, with moderate to strong
   instability forecast to overlap rich low-level moisture in the
   presence of strong deep-layer shear. There has been a consistent
   enough signal in guidance suggesting a substantial severe threat may
   develop across these areas next Tuesday to introduce 15% severe
   probabilities. Greater probabilities may be needed if current model
   trends continue. Finally, some severe threat may continue on Day
   8/Wednesday across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley as the upper
   trough moves eastward. But, there is too much uncertainty regarding
   the evolution of convection on Tuesday and the quality of low-level
   moisture return with eastward extent to include a 15% severe area
   for next Wednesday.

   ..Gleason.. 04/21/2021
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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Does anyone know what the highest percentage recorded is for at least some level of drought in the lower 48?  This is not a good way to enter summer with that much D0 and higher on the map.

Just anecdotally 2012 was way worse by this point already, although I don't remember the percentages.

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madwx

madwx

Posted
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Posted
14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Just anecdotally 2012 was way worse by this point already, although I don't remember the percentages.

We're actually significantly worse than 2012.  At least for areas W of the Mississippi.

drought monitor.PNG

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