Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[madwx]

good news is that most signals are for April temps to be above average regionwide, especially the first half of the month.  Still can't rule out cool shots but looking better than the past few Aprils

[CheeselandSkies]

8 hours ago, madwx said:

good news is that most signals are for April temps to be above average regionwide, especially the first half of the month.  Still can't rule out cool shots but looking better than the past few Aprils

Problem is it's a "giant ridge pushing the jet stream up to Nunavut" AA signal rather than from being in the warm sectors of SLPs with thunder and .

[A-L-E-K]

getting some blooms now in south facing beds

upcoming looks wet, should keep the d1 away

[frostfern]

Snow depth is WAY below normal in Canada.  Get ready for all of northern Ontario to burn. 

[Chicago Storm]

getting some blooms now in south facing beds
upcoming looks wet, should keep the d1 away

Same out here in the suburbs. Many of the early flowers are up, and some trees/scrubs are budding.


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[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Same out here in the suburbs. Many of the early flowers are up, and some trees/scrubs are budding.


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Getting that here in the Western GTA. With heavy rain and temperatures in the 60s the next few days, I think by Sunday the grass looks a lot greener. The buds are getting bigger and first flowers up. Add some green grass and it will have a definite spring feel. 

[StormfanaticInd]

On 3/17/2021 at 10:01 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

This could be the worst severe weather season since 2011 folks

See no reason to doubt this

[madwx]

reading into the medium range tea leaves, this weekend looks like it will be warmer than previously expected, the mild conditions will remain until mid week, until a brief cool shot arrives late next week and then above average temps flood the area starting easter weekend

[A-L-E-K]

13 hours ago, madwx said:

reading into the medium range tea leaves, this weekend looks like it will be warmer than previously expected, the mild conditions will remain until mid week, until a brief cool shot arrives late next week and then above average temps flood the area starting easter weekend

sounds about right, really been a p typical spring for our climo, no complaints so far, would do again

[A-L-E-K]

extended looking mild

[madwx]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looking mild

After the turn of the month it looks to turn mild with chances of rain, no real cold shots in sight after next Wednesday/Thursday

[A-L-E-K]

feels like best april prospects for not cold and miserable in a long time

[Baum]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

feels like best april prospects for not cold and miserable in a long time

nice.

[WaryWarren]

zzzzzzzz

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS is forecasting a trough to move across the upper midwest mid next week, bringing much cooler air to the region.  The Euro, on the other hand, continues to show endless spring to summer warmth.  The Euro now has 80s, and fairly humid, around here late in the period.

[frostfern]

Euro looks thundery for Michigan next week.  Something similar to what happened on the 7th last year would be cool.

[RCNYILWX]

Euro looks thundery for Michigan next week.  Something similar to what happened on the 7th last year would be cool.

Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates are forecast to get advected eastward next week, so could be some solid hailers like 4/7/20 had if there's sufficient deep layer shear.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[frostfern]

14 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates are forecast to get advected eastward next week, so could be some solid hailers like 4/7/20 had if there's sufficient deep layer shear.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

It looks like the warm front will be north of most of us, so probably plenty of sunshine.  The GL backdoor sag idea is gone for now at least, which I like.  It's just a matter of coverage.  Something has to break the cap at the right time.  GFS is now showing a pretty good system coming in from the west later but that's so far out still.

[cyclone77]

Looks like the snoozefest continues for the foreseeable future.  Man, what a benign spring. 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snoozefest continues for the foreseeable future.  Man, what a benign spring. 

Yeah, it's annoying but it's still early for us and at least it's nice out. The worst (which we seem to have seen a lot in recent years) is when a winter pattern decides to show up right around the spring equinox and persist for most of April. As posted elsewhere, any upcoming cool-down looks to be to near/slightly below normal rather than much below.

[A-L-E-K]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snoozefest continues for the foreseeable future.  Man, what a benign spring. 

it has at least been nice, once the troughing and drizzle settles in it's gonna get rough

[madwx]

the middle of the month is not looking as cool as it once did, temps look to be only average or slightly below.   The mean trough position looks to set up further west

[SchaumburgStormer]

30 minutes ago, madwx said:

the middle of the month is not looking as cool as it once did, temps look to be only average or slightly below.   The mean trough position looks to set up further west

It's a lot easier to take a "cool" period when its mid to upper 50's. 

Leaf out is going gangbusters here, about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. You can nearly watch the grass grow all of the sudden. The cool, wet pattern is really beneficial to the sod and seed I put in at the new crib last fall. 

It's nice to watch the Masters without seeing snow outside. 

[A-L-E-K]

here we go again

[Malacka11]

As long as everything is nice and colorful by May, I don't mind all that much what happens in between now and then.

[Chicago Storm]

the middle of the month is not looking as cool as it once did, temps look to be only average or slightly below.   The mean trough position looks to set up further west

It never really looked all that cool, more seasonable to even a bit above.


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[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It's a lot easier to take a "cool" period when its mid to upper 50's. 

Leaf out is going gangbusters here, about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. You can nearly watch the grass grow all of the sudden. The cool, wet pattern is really beneficial to the sod and seed I put in at the new crib last fall. 

It's nice to watch the Masters without seeing snow outside. 

Yes, all of this. Coming out of work at 12:30 this afternoon it felt very much like an early spring (yes, believe it or not it is still quite early for us) day should feel. 80s is too warm, and anything where you're talking about snow is too cold at this point (in my opinion, anyway).

I find it slightly irksome that we're now in this climate pattern where you can get mid-70s or warmer at this latitude in early April and not "pay" for it in the form of a outbreak.

[frostfern]

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

It never really looked all that cool, more seasonable to even a bit above.


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Long range is really really boring though.  Might as well live in Scotland.  Just hope this blocking nonsense doesn't last into May.  I'm afraid climate change is making boring blocking patterns more common just because the arctic is warming faster than the midlatitudes.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It's a lot easier to take a "cool" period when its mid to upper 50's. 

Leaf out is going gangbusters here, about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. You can nearly watch the grass grow all of the sudden. The cool, wet pattern is really beneficial to the sod and seed I put in at the new crib last fall. 

It's nice to watch the Masters without seeing snow outside. 

 What the trees budding rapidly and some flowers being out I would say we're 2 weeks ahead of normal but about 4 weeks ahead of the last several years

[StormfanaticInd]

3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Long range is really really boring though.  Might as well live in Scotland.  Just hope this blocking nonsense doesn't last into May.  I'm afraid climate change is making boring blocking patterns more common just because the arctic is warming faster than the midlatitudes.

I agree. It is undeniable. Springs are not what they used to be here in the OV.