Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

7 minutes ago, madwx said:

after a brief colder shot early next week there are signs that the middle and end of next week could get downright mild, with 50s and 60s getting at least into southern Wisconsin

[tuanis]

18 hours ago, madwx said:

after a brief colder shot early next week there are signs that the middle and end of next week could get downright mild, with 50s and 60s getting at least into southern Wisconsin

Willing to bet the back door will shut down those kinds of temps. We'll see.
I'm just glad the melt looks to be gradual to avert flooding situations.

[Malacka11]

Once the snowpack has dwindled to a safe level, what we really need is a nice big soaker to clean all the salt and crap off of everything

[cyclone77]

Since we're warming up it sure would be nice to have a shot at some convection, but it looks pretty quiet for the next 10 days.

[andyhb]

On 2/19/2021 at 2:57 PM, andyhb said:

Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific.

Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

[Ground Scouring]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

Is there any overriding, large-scale, climatic forcing that is likely behind this? It definitely seems to be a theme, regardless of other factors.

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, Ground Scouring said:

Is there any overriding, large-scale, climatic forcing that is likely behind this? It definitely seems to be a theme, regardless of other factors.

I can't help but think the warming Pacific is influencing it.

[CheeselandSkies]

8 hours ago, andyhb said:

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

[A-L-E-K]

15 hours ago, andyhb said:

I can't help but think the warming Pacific is influencing it.

absolutely

[CheeselandSkies]

Had hoped the La Nina and -PDO would take care of that this year.

[Frog Town]

Ok, I'm ready!  

[cyclone77]

zzzzz

[Ground Scouring]

50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Had hoped the La Nina and -PDO would take care of that this year.

Part of the problem is that the Pacific basin is the largest on the planet and thus is warming faster overall than the other basins due to climatic forcing.

[roardog]

So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

Oh, but isn't it more fun to call a dud now?

[CheeselandSkies]

52 minutes ago, roardog said:

So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

Oh, I'm more than happy to give it a chance, but the last few years have significantly tempered my optimism/expectations going into spring.

[cyclone77]

Long ways off but the Euro's been advertising a system around the 10th.  Verbatim could be a shot at some decent convection with a swath of 55+ dews out ahead of it.  At this point it's the only thing to watch.

[Southern stream]

With all of the historic flooding around here, many of us need a break for the next several days so no complaints here.

Height anomalies look encouraging toward mid March. More of a typical trough west/ridge east scenario. Jet pattern really amplifies around that timeframe. 

[Southern stream]

Although this is no promise of active weather, definitely a step in the right direction.

[hawkeye_wx]

All models are on board some significant action mid next week as early spring warmth and moisture surges north into the region.

[hlcater]

The thing with this season is that the overall pattern, long range climatological guidance, and analog set(I'm using 2011, 2018, 2009, 2008, 1976 and 1974) are all suggestive that this is a severe season that peaks in March and April before simmering down into May and June with expanding drought in the plains and potentially western sub by July and August (especially if we start heading towards a 2nd year nina). Obviously not a surefire thing, but taking what is shown at face value, I'm not about to count on May and June to roar in well above average. Who knows, I might be eating boots by then.

[A-L-E-K]

toss that shit^

[StormfanaticInd]

Next week is starting to get my attention 

[StormfanaticInd]

[Indystorm]

GFS has been hinting at something in this time frame as well.  But it's a ways off yet.  Wait and see.  

[hoosierwx]

Today is the ninth anniversary of the big outbreak that included the Henryville tornado. The funnel cloud that eventually became that tornado passed about 5 miles to my south.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[hlcater]

54 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

crush em with the low 50s dews on that run

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, hlcater said:

crush em with the low 50s dews on that run

Most likely undergoing the dewpoints but we will see

[Indystorm]

I well remember March 12, 2006 when the KC area in the morning had temps in the 40's with much warmer air aloft and severe storms that morphed into tornadoes across MO and central IL with Springfield IL being hit with two tornadoes that evening.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

crush em with the low 50s dews on that run

At this time of year, I almost always look at dewpoints first to see whether it is worth spending much time looking at a setup.  And, well, they're not that great in this sub as you pointed out.  The other thing is mid-level lapse rates since great mid-level lapse rates can compensate for lower dews, but the lapse rates don't look that great at this point.  Would like to see a setup like this a little later in the season, but oh well.  I'll probably watch it anyway since nothing else is going on.  Even a lower end threat would be better than nothing to hopefully serve as an appetizer for better days to come.