Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[StormfanaticInd]

Pretty solid setup for severe weather coming up 

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/12/2021 at 8:35 PM, roardog said:

If we are going to do heat then give me ‘95 over ‘88. Unless you’re looking for an extreme air temperature then you should want to take the humid summer of ‘95 to at least get a derecho or two.

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

It’s kind of funny how we can remember certain events from a young age. I can remember the warm Christmas of 1982 even though I was only 4. Although I can’t remember specifics, I can remember it because it was the main topic of conversation that day. 

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

I don't remember being affected by the heat as a child.  I was skinny and didn't really sweat.  I got bigger after puberty, and only then started not liking heat.

I remember the basement flooding in September the same year, but I don't remember the heat so much.  September was extremely wet for some reason that year.  I think it was hurricane remnants tracking through.

[A-L-E-K]

Euro is nice

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Euro is nice

Dry and 90's ?

[A-L-E-K]

Sounds good, lookin good over here and ready 2 hit the beach 

[hawkeye_wx]

It's looking like, perhaps, later next week could be more thunderstorm-active around here.  The first frontal passage early in the week doesn't look very active on models.

[Stebo]

I think this one won't be a false start and that we might have an active 2 week period for the country starting this weekend.

[frostfern]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think this one won't be a false start and that we might have an active 2 week period for the country starting this weekend.

Good instability will try to nose northeast starting Tuesday, provided upstream convection doesn’t eat it all up.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I think this one won't be a false start and that we might have an active 2 week period for the country starting this weekend.

It is an outrage to have active weather in the US in the spring.

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It is an outrage to have active weather in the US in the spring.

About the equivalent of our benign Decembers lately.  Pretty sad. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Does severe weather season even exist in the O.V. anymore?

 

[A-L-E-K]

continuously just outside jackpot zones on med/long range guidance

[frostfern]

On 5/21/2021 at 2:13 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Does severe weather season even exist in the O.V. anymore?

 

You'll at least get storms with the Thursday system.  Here is hopeless.  Always garbage timing and/or lake shadowing.

[hawkeye_wx]

This morning's Euro has our temperature rising every day for the next ten days.  It's looking pretty toasty by late next week.  It also has little to no rain for many of us from Iowa to Michigan.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This morning's Euro has our temperature rising every day for the next ten days.  It's looking pretty toasty by late next week.  It also has little to no rain for many of us from Iowa to Michigan.

July will be rockin'

[RogueWaves]

On 5/15/2021 at 11:00 AM, Jonger said:

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

Was a newlywed in '88. Had an older mobile home that baked with a western exposure all afternoon. Was broke after wedding and honeymoon so not even a thought of buying a window a/c unit. Night-time sleep temp inside was 88F with little circulation. Lost a ton of sleep that summer, then had to drive in an old car without a/c to a job on the top floor of an old building with skylights and zero a/c. Had an extreme case of heatwave fatigue when it was done. 113F heat index at KFNT and freeway grass fires in Genesee Cnty. Yeah, nothing will touch '88 for my personal misery index!

[Spartman]

MJO is all over the place into the first half of June.

[A-L-E-K]

looks like a snoozer, hopefully done with the furnace until october 

[StormfanaticInd]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like a snoozer, hopefully done with the furnace until october 

If the trend of early cold continues it will be back on in September 

[Spartman]

Currently in Phase 7 of the MJO. Looks to be going to mainly Phase 8 soon before falling into the Circle of Death.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Currently in Phase 7 of the MJO. Looks to be going to mainly Phase 8 soon before falling into the Circle of Death.

 

enlighten us as to what this means.


.

[Spartman]

We're now in phase 7 of the MJO, but it's about to fall into the COD soon.

 

22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

enlighten us as to what this means.


.

For this time of the year, Phase 7 into the COD would mean cooler-than-normal temperatures and equal-chances for above-normal or below-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future.

6-10 outlook:

8-14 outlook:


With no signs of siginificant heat in the forseeable future and the potential of drier-than-normal conditions, these outlooks say ZZZZZZZZ.

[Chicago Storm]

We're now in phase 7 of the MJO, but it's about to fall into the COD soon.

 

For this time of the year, Phase 7 into the COD would mean cooler-than-normal temperatures and equal-chances for above-normal or below-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future.

6-10 outlook:

8-14 outlook:

was exactly the response I expected, copy and paste of maps.

 

the MJO in the summer does not have the same impact it does in the winter (or even spring/fall). so it’s fairly toss worthy.

 

 

.

[Stebo]

20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

was exactly the response I expected, copy and paste of maps.

 

the MJO in the summer does not have the same impact it does in the winter (or even spring/fall). so it’s fairly toss worthy.

 

 

.

Only time it matters is when it has decent amplitude which this current MJO wave doesn't. 

[Spartman]

Starting to trend cool and dry on today's 8-14 day outlook.

 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Starting to trend cool and dry on today's 8-14 day outlook.

Yeah, the blues are only 500 miles away.

[cyclone77]

The snooze-fest since the Feb snows shut off appears to continue unfortunately.  What an unfortunate stretch of weather we have here for weather enthusiasts.  Drought talk is of course relevant in the areas where it's festering, but it's sad that it's the highlight of the sub's weather discussion this summer.  A garden variety thunderstorm would be the highlight of the year if it were to occur for most of us lol.  Fu cking pathetic.