frostfern Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 9:39 AM, SchaumburgStormer said: You may ask yourself, where is my warm front? Clicking 9 days ahead, GFS has got me down. Once in a lifetime, a t-storm will come around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Drought talk is going to be at full volume soon for the areas north of 80 in IL. I think drought alone will be a big feedback mechanism for an above normal summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Drought talk is going to be at full volume soon for the areas north of 80 in IL. I think drought alone will be a big feedback mechanism for an above normal summer. Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988. Isn’t 1988 another one of those years we don’t speak of when comparing current conditions (like a certain year last decade and a certain year in the Dust Bowl era)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 7 hours ago, Indystorm said: Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988. 1988 is the holy grail of heat waves to me. It is the summer equivalent of the '78 blizzard. I drove from Indiana to Washington D. C. the middle of July in an F-150 with no air conditioning and spent a few days sightseeing on the Mall with temps in the mid-upper 90's every day. I don't remember the exact date, but it hit 104° at the airport on one of those days. The Mall was cookin'. Good times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, IWXwx said: 1988 is the holy grail of heat waves to me. It is the summer equivalent of the '78 blizzard. I drove from Indiana to Washington D. C. the middle of July in an F-150 with no air conditioning and spent a few days sightseeing on the Mall with temps in the mid-upper 90's every day. I don't remember the exact date, but it hit 104° at the airport on one of those days. The Mall was cookin'. Good times. 1988 is the 2012 for people older than me. Another year that comes to mind is 1995. Crazy thing about 1995 in Pittsburgh is we had an 8 day streak and a separate 7 day streak of highs in the 90s and a maximum temperature for the summer of 100 (haven’t hit 100 since) that was not part of either of those stretches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 If we are going to do heat then give me ‘95 over ‘88. Unless you’re looking for an extreme air temperature then you should want to take the humid summer of ‘95 to at least get a derecho or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 I can remember the weather channel having a segment called Drought Watch at like 8pm every night during the summer of ‘88. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Some signs of life in the thunderstorm department next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Some signs of life in the thunderstorm department next week I might be a skeptic, but I'll believe it when I see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 A few days ago I posted qpf maps through next week for the GFS and Euro. Unfortunately, the dry GFS is looking more correct. The Euro surged moisture and storms up into the lakes, but that is looking unlikely. This weekend's rain has mostly vanished and now it may be at least mid next week before anything can lift up into our region. The latest Euro now has nothing until Thursday. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A few days ago I posted qpf maps through next week for the GFS and Euro. Unfortunately, the dry GFS is looking more correct. The Euro surged moisture and storms up into the lakes, but that is looking unlikely. This weekend's rain has mostly vanished and now it may be at least mid next week before anything can lift up into our region. The latest Euro now has nothing until Thursday. Ugh. This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 12 hours ago, roardog said: If we are going to do heat then give me ‘95 over ‘88. Unless you’re looking for an extreme air temperature then you should want to take the humid summer of ‘95 to at least get a derecho or two. I was only 9 but I remember the summer of '95 being quite stormy in this neck of the woods. I also remember sleeping in the living room a lot because my room upstairs was too stifling. We had an older house with one window A/C unit in the living room downstairs and one in my parents' room upstairs, which they didn't like to use because the wiring up there wasn't upgraded (two two-hole outlets in their room, one in each of the other two bedrooms). Ofc, that was already a much better chase season than this with several events in April and May, then the famous early June TX Panhandle outbreaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter. Was just looking at the GFS this morning and thinking about how lost it seems - it appears it has returned to its island with respect to how the pattern evolves later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Was just looking at the GFS this morning and thinking about how lost it seems - it appears it has returned to its island with respect to how the pattern evolves later next week. Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though. Oh, it has been. The only difference is it doesn’t completely flip on the large scale pattern beyond day 7 seemingly every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Oh, it has been. The only difference is it doesn’t completely flip on the large scale pattern beyond day 7 seemingly every run. The Euro changes every 3 runs. Neither is reliable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Just now, frostfern said: The Euro changes every 3 runs. Neither is reliable at this point. Maybe it’s just easier and more convenient to be critical of the GFS because my tax dollars weren’t just spent to “upgrade” the Euro to a new version that seems to perform worse than the old one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 5 hours ago, WestMichigan said: I might be a skeptic, but I'll believe it when I see it. Dissipating cutoff ejecting from the SW US will probably bring some summer-like humidity. Problem is even if that does take a path into our area, it will probably only trigger hit-and-miss diurnal stuff, concentrated wherever the lake breeze sets up. Hardly a drought breaker if there isn't a more substantial system later on in model-uncertainly-land. Also the cutoff shown hasn't even formed yet over California. If it tracks too far west we'll end up hot and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 I take back everything I said about the Euro. Holy ****, that’s a dramatic shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I take back everything I said about the Euro. Seems like both euro and gfs want to bring the freezer back at some point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 54 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Seems like both euro and gfs want to bring the freezer back at some point. Yeah not a good look. Hopefully it changes. Eps not nearly as bad thankfully lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 On 4/28/2021 at 4:18 PM, A-L-E-K said: CAD summer 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: I wondered how long it would be before you bumped that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 I gotta work on my schtick 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Interesting blog post from Judah Cohen about the late spring and early summer pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Interesting blog post from Judah Cohen about the late spring and early summer pattern The never ending block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 ^I use to follow Cohen, but as much as he comes off as a pattern recognition met, he can flip on a dime if models switch. And a coolish late May early June is hardly news. Summer never hits for good in these parts until mid June. Though, based on general thought I'd hoped for a Phoneix, AZ type late May. Probably another case of delayed not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Greenland block in summer can sometimes mean an active pattern though, which would be good. Without any high latitude blocking low pressure systems in summer tend to head up into Canada and the trailing cold fronts come through dry. Blocking in conjunction with a SE-ridge-favorabe MJO would be the best for drought mitigation here in Michigan. That is if it can lead to a stationary boundary oscillating just N or S of I-80. The fact that it's late May rather than June means the front might still stall too far south to make me happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, frostfern said: Greenland block in summer can sometimes mean an active pattern though, which would be good. Without any high latitude blocking low pressure systems in summer tend to head up into Canada and the trailing cold fronts come through dry. Blocking in conjunction with a SE-ridge-favorabe MJO would be the best for drought mitigation here in Michigan. That is if it can lead to a stationary boundary oscillating just N or S of I-80. The fact that it's late May rather than June means the front might still stall too far south to make me happy though. 2010 says hello in this regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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