Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

it's just the euro

 

[Hoosier]

I forgot that it's routine to lock in summer weather north of 40N in May.

[cyclone77]

We had a few wet flakes last year on May 10th so the above doesn't surprise me lol.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We had a few wet flakes last year on May 10th so the above doesn't surprise me lol.

We had snow observed 5 days in a row (May 8-12), a feat never before seen at Detroit. This includes measurable snow on May 10th (0.7" imby, 0.5" DTW). I figured we'd used up our May snow quota for years...but ya never know haha

[A-L-E-K]

extended is grim

[NTXYankee]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended is grim

Are you surprised?  There is no end in sight to the pattern we’ve been in since April.

[Chicago Storm]

Are you surprised?  There is no end in sight to the pattern we’ve been in since April.

lol


.

[NTXYankee]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol


.

So when is the next cutoff low set to sit and spin for days after this one?  Probably a good thing that models show no 70’s or 80’s through at least the 20th and CPC says below normal.  Would hate people to have the impression the pattern changed.

[Chicago Storm]

So when is the next cutoff low set to sit and spin for days after this one?  Probably a good thing that models show no 70’s or 80’s through at least the 20th and CPC says below normal.  Would hate people to have the impression the pattern changed.

definitely not going to get above 70 the rest of the month.


.

[StormfanaticInd]

The models are just brutal 

[A-L-E-K]

getting better

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

getting better

Let the GFS finish. 

[Geoboy645]

What in the literal **** is that GFS run for southern Wisconsin for Sunday. 9 inches of snow?! ON MOTHER'S DAY?! I am up here in Green Bay and I am still annoyed at even the thought of that. Even if you were cut that in half because of it being yknow Mid-May that is still 4-5 inches of snow. Eff that. And its only 4 days out too. Same S**t different year. Uggh.

[madwx]

don't worry, it gets better.

[TimB]

21 minutes ago, madwx said:

don't worry, it get's better.

Shades of 1947.

[Spartman]

6-10 day:

8-14 day:

[A-L-E-K]

extended is pure zzzz but at least the furnace can finally get a rest

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended is pure zzzz but at least the furnace can finally get a rest

Op GFS was brutally dry iyby.  

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, the GFS is awful if you're looking for active weather in the great lakes region in May.

[Harry Perry]

Looks like another long drawn-out upper level low coming for the end of next week. Hopefully it stays East. 
 

Beginning to remind me of the spring/summer of 2009.

[hawkeye_wx]

The op Euro and GFS are quite different in the extended.  The GFS keeps the blocking going, which suppresses everything.  The Euro gets the blocking outa here and surges the warmth and storms into the lakes.

10-day qpf

[TimB]

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

An inferior model leads the way sometimes.  Not saying it's the case this time though.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

was this post clipped from 1999?

[TimB]

59 minutes ago, Baum said:

was this post clipped from 1999?

You’re right, my comment was rather misleading. The GFS has come a long way. But in general, what I’m saying is I wouldn’t bet on any model that is completely out on an island when compared against pretty much every other model...

 

 

 

...especially if the model out on an island is the GFS.

[roardog]

5 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Looks like another long drawn-out upper level low coming for the end of next week. Hopefully it stays East. 
 

Beginning to remind me of the spring/summer of 2009.

I’d bet about $1000 that the summer of ‘21 will not be as cool or cooler than the summer of ‘09.

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I’d bet about $1000 that the summer of ‘21 will not be as cool or cooler than the summer of ‘09.

I don’t think so either, hopefully there’ll be lack of persistent upper level lows and troughing in the GL regions/east. Seems like it’s been western ridge and eastern trough since 2011.

[Stebo]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

An inferior model leads the way sometimes.  Not saying it's the case this time though.

Interestingly enough this was discussed elsewhere, and over the last month the 500mb chart comparison, Euro/GDPS/Ukie all are doing better than the GFS. It has fallen below those 2 models even, this upgrade has been a substantial downgrade. You can tell because all you need to do is compare to its own ensembles, and how the op is almost always wildly different by day 7.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Interestingly enough this was discussed elsewhere, and over the last month the 500mb chart comparison, Euro/GDPS/Ukie all are doing better than the GFS. It has fallen below those 2 models even, this upgrade has been a substantial downgrade. You can tell because all you need to do is compare to its own ensembles, and how the op is almost always wildly different by day 7.

That’s the thing, it’s not like we’re dealing with hour 372 here. Today’s GFS runs had some particularly wild swings in the D9 timeframe in particular.

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

I’d bet about $1000 that the summer of ‘21 will not be as cool or cooler than the summer of ‘09.

Peobably not cool, but probably very boring and dry for the Great Lakes.  New normal it seems.