madwx Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 March looks to start off with a Neutral/Positive AO/NAO and a -PNA. This should allow the SE Ridge to flex it's muscles a bit and bring warm air to at least the SE half of the subforum. An active storm track looks to continue though there may be periods of dry weather. There is a chance of a minor disruption to the TPV around the beginning of March but any cold blast would be short lived. Looking long range there will be a lot of snow to melt over the next month or two leading to increased flood risk. In addition the drought over the SW and plains is continuing which may allow a stronger EML to move into the region increasing severe weather chances. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific. Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Will we end up with yet another year of late season accumulating snow events in April and may? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Just need to keep the snow cover for the 1st week of march which seems doable for most of Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Will we end up with yet another year of late season accumulating snow events in April and may? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Will we actually get a decent severe outbreak this season, I think everyone here is craving a good moderate or high risk day to track 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Article includes a quote from an "Extreme Meteorologist". https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/accuweathers-2021-us-spring-severe-weather-tornado-forecast/901242 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think everyone here is craving a good moderate or high risk day to track Having been a victim of the derecho, I'm not itching for more severe storms. A solid number of garden-variety storms this year would be ideal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I already got my camera, I'm itching to take my 2003 Civic chasing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 17 hours ago, WaryWarren said: Article includes a quote from an "Extreme Meteorologist". https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/accuweathers-2021-us-spring-severe-weather-tornado-forecast/901242 Sounds like they're hinting a 2011 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 On 2/19/2021 at 5:04 PM, michsnowfreak said: Will we end up with yet another year of late season accumulating snow events in April and may? I sure as hell hope not 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 On 2/19/2021 at 8:11 PM, mississaugasnow said: Just need to keep the snow cover for the 1st week of march which seems doable for most of Southern Ontario. In the subdivision capital of Canada (aka Kitchener) where your drive way is the same size as your front yard....very very doable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Obviously there's more to it than this, but with the western/southwestern drought already pretty far along and likely to continue/worsen and the bona fide Nina, it does set off some alarm bells in my head for a potentially active Spring severe season in the Midwest. Certainly if it does turn out to be active, it won't be a thing where you look back and wonder 'gee, how did that happen'? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Obviously there's more to it than this, but with the western/southwestern drought already pretty far along and likely to continue/worsen and the bona fide Nina, it does set off some alarm bells in my head for a potentially active Spring severe season in the Midwest. Certainly if it does turn out to be active, it won't be a thing where you look back and wonder 'gee, how did that happen'? I wonder if that drought expands to make it a hot and dry summer in parts of the Midwest. It seems like it’s been awhile but we haven’t had a decent La Niña and -PDO in awhile either. We’ve obviously had warm summers recently but not the 100 degree drought stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 We won't get dry enuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, roardog said: I wonder if that drought expands to make it a hot and dry summer in parts of the Midwest. It seems like it’s been awhile but we haven’t had a decent La Niña and -PDO in awhile either. We’ve obviously had warm summers recently but not the 100 degree drought stuff. It's early but I'd be surprised if it's not a warmer than average summer. If the areas upstream are in drought (and expands into the Plains), then it raises the odds of generating some intensely hot airmasses out there. Whether or not we actually get into a technical drought in this part of the country, even a few weeks of relative drying out would make it more likely that some of that intense heat would spill eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's early but I'd be surprised if it's not a warmer than average summer. If the areas upstream are in drought (and expands into the Plains), then it raises the odds of generating some intensely hot airmasses out there. Whether or not we actually get into a technical drought in this part of the country, even a few weeks of relative drying out would make it more likely that some of that intense heat would spill eastward. The good news is we are going into spring with a healthy (in fact for some, record) snowpack in place, as opposed to 2011-12 when the entire central CONUS dried to a crisp and started to bake in March and never stopped until almost fall. I have to think that the recent winter storms in the southern Plains will help as well, since it's unusual for them to be going into spring with any snowpack at all in place, isn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 After a brief cold shot at the beginning of next week models are keying in on warmer than average temps flooding the region starting around the 3rd of March. Of course areas N of I80 will have to melt off a heck of a snowpack before the full warming potential can be realized 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 17 hours ago, Hoosier said: Obviously there's more to it than this, but with the western/southwestern drought already pretty far along and likely to continue/worsen and the bona fide Nina, it does set off some alarm bells in my head for a potentially active Spring severe season in the Midwest. Certainly if it does turn out to be active, it won't be a thing where you look back and wonder 'gee, how did that happen'? I'm thinking that the dry line will be displaced farther east than usual which has seemed to have happened in recent seasons with a relative lack of Plains activity. Way out on the models, of course, but I'd watch the March 4-5 time frame now for lower and possibly mid MS valley for severe wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 This look is starting to get my attention for severe weather season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 9 hours ago, Indystorm said: I'm thinking that the dry line will be displaced farther east than usual which has seemed to have happened in recent seasons with a relative lack of Plains activity. Way out on the models, of course, but I'd watch the March 4-5 time frame now for lower and possibly mid MS valley for severe wx. I agree. Some signs are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I used to discount early season setups at this latitude out of hand (given that we can have low-level instability issues into late May), but events like 4/9/15, 3/15/16 and 2/28/17 have given me a new respect for them. Heck, we've done better in oddball "off-season" months (even including 12/1/18) in recent years than we have in May and June. Last year also had that late March potential big day that largely busted, but still produced a few tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I've seen some respectable setups in January and February before here in the OV. It really doesn't matter what season you are in as long as you have the right ingredients, it can go big 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 eps are mild and nary a vortex to be seen, mild spring time here we go 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: eps are mild and nary a vortex to be seen, mild spring time here we go dream scenario. 30 days of intense winter gives way to mild/warm spring with only a few days of north east flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Hoping for a quick transition to some warmth. The last few years March-early May has been quite cold comparable to average. We had accumulating snow May 10-12th last year. We haven't had a real spring in quite sometime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Baum said: dream scenario. 30 days of intense winter gives way to mild/warm spring with only a few days of north east flow. Yep, still have another good week plus of snowcover even with mild temps. Time to start ramping towards spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 The last two prolonged AO/NAO blocks during meteorlogical winter, 2010 and 2011, were followed by active severe weather seasons, so hopefully that plays out this year as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Paul Pastelok from AccuWeather is doing an AMA (Ask Me Anything) on Reddit for those interested in his spring severe forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 after a brief colder shot early next week there are signs that the middle and end of next week could get downright mild, with 50s and 60s getting at least into southern Wisconsin 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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