caviman2201 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We’ve had ensemble maps posting to the point of nausea this year but with a system approaching Monday we can’t get a single ensemble map? Friday either? Somebody kidnap Will? Maybe folks are tired of posting snow maps that are somehow only accurate north of 70 and west of Parr's Ridge 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 0z RGEM is tasty. It just wont give up on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Its gonna trend and give Haymarket 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 RGEM is marginal at the surface w a warm layer up top. Probably white rain or a mix w little to no accumulation given the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z RGEM is tasty. It just wont give up on Monday. All well and good, but taking the RGEM at its word is a recipe for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Destiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Would be funny if this worked out though. Its the ones you dont count on that often surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z RGEM is tasty. It just wont give up on Monday. Tasty for who? I-81? Yeah, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Looks like heavy precip. How do we get this to come quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Looks like heavy precip. How do we get this to come quicker This is strictly an I-81 and west event. Be realistic and you won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is strictly an I-81 and west event. Be realistic and you won't be disappointed. C’mon man. Get on board. It’s just gonna keep trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: C’mon man. Get on board. It’s just gonna keep trending better. I hope you pull it off dude, seriously. There is zero chance that it works for us. No need to worry about anybody outside your backyard dude. I get it. I'm not like the other debs tho. I'm not going to be in here constantly shitting up threads with negativity. you know I know how to roll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Watch this lame threat become our biggest snow fall of the year....LOLI think that’s what Ji’s plan was. Every other superstition has struggled to produce for many of us this winter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 We’ve had several excellent spurts of observations. Most weren’t as long or totally what we thought. We are approaching almost 30 days of this pattern and that’s way better than typical in many/most winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 7 hours ago, stormtracker said: I hope you pull it off dude, seriously. There is zero chance that it works for us. No need to worry about anybody outside your backyard dude. I get it. I'm not like the other debs tho. I'm not going to be in here constantly shitting up threads with negativity. you know I know how to roll. Stranger things have happened I guess. Not a great set up for the coastal plain with the low tracking over the GL and HP centered due east over the Atlantic. The way it could work is an initial slug of heavy precip partially mitigating/delaying the warming low and mid level temps. The upside is still less than an inch for my yard. Maybe this will be the odd case of something that looks all wrong synoptically working out lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Icon is a snow model now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 GFS likes the northern crew for a few inches. Gets the precip in a bit earlier.....9am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Strong support from the 00UT EPS for a minor event Monday evening - 44 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet in College Park. what could possibly go wrong? 90th percentile: 2" 80th percentile: 2" 70th percentile: 1" 60th percentile: 1" 50th percentile: 0.9" 40th percentile: 0.6" 30th percentile: 0.4" 20th percentile: 0.2" 10th percentile: 0.0" Keep in mind these are for College Park; your backyard could do a bit better. Also, do not apply the (EPS-3)*2/3 rule, which has worked so well this winter. It works best with a 24-hour forecast and has not been tested yet during this period of shorter wavelengths and colder climatological SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Both GFS models have the precip skip over my area and then redevelop to the east. Like a line of storms in the spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 GGEM kind of caved to the American models at 12Z. RGEM still likes the event. But it is basically on its own now. If we can steal an inch I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 RGEM/ICON combo. What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM/ICON combo. What could go wrong? Does Pivotal Weather have the ICON on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: Does Pivotal Weather have the ICON on it? Don't think so. Here is the WB snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Looking through the models almost all of them have a 2" event for the favored spots... most get close to 1" in Baltimore.... surprised this place isn't hopping more. Shows how done we are with winter, I guess. Anyways, here is the RGEM as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 No, it shows that the portions of the board that live in and close-in to the cities has seen enough of marginal events in questionable air masses this season to wait and see if anything falls that is frozen before reacting at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: No, it shows that the portions of the board that live in and close-in to the cities has seen enough of marginal events in questionable air masses this season to wait and see if anything falls that is frozen before reacting at this point. Yea, not to mention the type of deal it is. Fairly heavy precip in a line like a front and low pressure passing well north. I'll never get excited for that in my yard. Can it accumulate near the cities? Sure, def possible. But only with the lucky combo of cold enough air from 925 on down and fairly intense precip like a line of storms. I'm not hanging my hat on being cold enough AND being under a spring cell like burst of snow. I'm interested in the event itself as it could be sneaky but only interested in real time. I see no reason to track or dig into every model run. My guess is a middle ground. A period of very attractive snowfall with nothing to measure as it moves east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Don't think so. Here is the WB snow map. Yeah there is a reason for that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking through the models almost all of them have a 2" event for the favored spots... most get close to 1" in Baltimore.... surprised this place isn't hopping more. Shows how done we are with winter, I guess. Anyways, here is the RGEM as well. Jackpot south of I95 over Alexandria, with a snow hole over Westminster. There's a reason the good forecasters laugh every time a model shows snow for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: Both GFS models have the precip skip over my area and then redevelop to the east. Like a line of storms in the spring and summer. SW flow events kill you with the 4500’ peaks to your SW. Same thing would happen when I was at PSU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 FWIW, JV EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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