2021-2022 ENSO

[uncle W]

JMA is another place to measure enso...

JMA SST ENSO Index - Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) (fsu.edu)

[StormchaserChuck!]

You know what, the La Nina is gone now

 

[raindancewx]

CFS has La Nina for Oct-Dec, cold-Neutral Jan, then back to pretty warm shortly after.

[raindancewx]

The Australians think the Indian Ocean Dipole should weaken pretty quickly later this year into winter. Not necessarily a great sign for a big La Nina to continue late winter and spring. Negative IOD is generally the La Nina amplifier/signal. The super +IOD of 2019-20 coincided with a lot of the weird weather that fall/winter, and then it died super fast.

[raindancewx]

This tends to happen when Nino 1.2 is warm in cold ENSO late Summer/Fall - see that huge cold trend east of Japan? That ain't the negative PDO folks. Watch the north pacific.

[George001]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This tends to happen when Nino 1.2 is warm in cold ENSO late Summer/Fall - see that huge cold trend east of Japan? That ain't the negative PDO folks. Watch the north pacific.

To me it looks like there is a growing signal for a weaker pacific jet, if this trend continues this could mean this winter will look nothing like the 2015-2016 to 2020-2021 winters did in regards to the pacific.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think it will be +EPO. 

[raindancewx]

Warmth is pushing east from the west at all depths. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 8/14/2021 at 6:23 PM, George001 said:

To me it looks like there is a growing signal for a weaker pacific jet, if this trend continues this could mean this winter will look nothing like the 2015-2016 to 2020-2021 winters did in regards to the pacific.

I think that would be a welcome change for some subforums, lol The PAC jet has been a focal point of discussion of what gets in the way! (and more generally if it would become a more permanent feature or not)

[George001]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think that would be a welcome change for some subforums, lol The PAC jet has been a focal point of discussion of what gets in the way! (and more generally if it would become a more permanent feature or not)

The pac jet has been brutal for all of us but you guys in the mid Atlantic especially already don’t have as much room for error to begin with. I do agree with the narrative that what we have been seeing with the pac jet is more than just a cyclical thing that will revert eventually, while that plays a role in my opinion the biggest culprit is climate change. The climate change induced well above avg temps in the Pacific Ocean seems to be making it easier for the pac jet strengthen and go ballistic. Fortunately even if things are tougher than they used to, we are still going to have severe winters, just not as frequently. It is promising that the Pacific Ocean as a whole is much cooler than last year, hopefully the cooling of the Pacific Ocean continues. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/14/2021 at 10:21 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think it will be +EPO. 

Why?

[dmillz25]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why?

I think he’s talking out his azz

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 21JUL2021     22.1 0.6     25.2-0.4     26.8-0.5     28.5-0.4
 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2

 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5

Still behind last year, especially in Nino 1.2 and Nino 4. Subsurface warmed up a bit this week too on the weekly ENSO PDF the CPC releases each week. The subsurface is still a bit warmer than last year too.

For my purposes, 'flat Neutral' in Nino 3.4 is 26.65C in August. So we've just crossed over to cold-Neutral in mid-August. SOI has also collapsed from over +16 in July to about +4 for the past 30 days. +4 or -4 in August is pretty reliable for what the next winter will do back to the 1930s - it's real close right now.

[raindancewx]

https://web.archive.org/web/20110902042909/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Hmm

[dmillz25]

59 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

https://web.archive.org/web/20110902042909/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Hmm

Slowly shifting east it looks like

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I think he’s talking out his azz

Not necessarily....there is some evidence that la nina coupled with easterly QBO leads to a flatter NPAC ridge, but I was honestly interested in hearing his rationale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 21JUL2021     22.1 0.6     25.2-0.4     26.8-0.5     28.5-0.4
 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2

 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5

Still behind last year, especially in Nino 1.2 and Nino 4. Subsurface warmed up a bit this week too on the weekly ENSO PDF the CPC releases each week. The subsurface is still a bit warmer than last year too.

For my purposes, 'flat Neutral' in Nino 3.4 is 26.65C in August. So we've just crossed over to cold-Neutral in mid-August. SOI has also collapsed from over +16 in July to about +4 for the past 30 days. +4 or -4 in August is pretty reliable for what the next winter will do back to the 1930s - it's real close right now.

Yea, too many knee-jerk reactions going over board with la nina last month...could see this coming.

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily....there is some evidence that la nina coupled with easterly QBO leads to a flatter NPAC ridge, but I was honestly interested in hearing his rationale.

Hopefully that’s not the case

[raindancewx]

Weatherbell has winters starting in 2003, 2005, 2008, 2017, 2020 as the winter analog blend at the moment. I liked 2003 as a low weighted analog for 2020-21 last year, so that doesn't surprise me too much as a comparable year to 2020 even though it is warm ENSO. It was very close to 2020 in December, and then February 2004 was not terrible as a match to February 2021.

The most interesting thing about that group is that each becomes an El Nino following winter...except for 2020-21. To their credit, that blend does at least look like current conditions in the tropics and for US temperatures. It's also a pretty warm winter. 

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-2021-22-winter-outlook

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Weatherbell has winters starting in 2003, 2005, 2008, 2017, 2020 as the winter analog blend at the moment. I liked 2003 as a low weighted analog for 2020-21 last year, so that doesn't surprise me too much as a comparable year to 2020 even though it is warm ENSO. It was very close to 2020 in December, and then February 2004 was not terrible as a match to February 2021.

The most interesting thing about that group is that each becomes an El Nino following winter...except for 2020-21. To their credit, that blend does at least look like current conditions in the tropics and for US temperatures. It's also a pretty warm winter. 

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-2021-22-winter-outlook

Looks pretty reasonable....I see a couple of my early favored analogs in there.

[raindancewx]

I never bothered looking at this until today, but my analog blend for last winter was pretty good at 500 mb. Main issue was not having enough high pressure over Greenland. Only had Dec negative for a neutral winter. The closest blend to last winter that matches on the very cold Nino 4, very high +WPO, and -NAO winter is 1959-60 (x2), 2007-08, 2008-09.

This is the time of year I start to figure out if the WPO will be positive or negative. It's very rare for it be very positive in a La Nina like last year, when it was actually record positive overall. You can see that the difference in snow in the top +WPO and top -WPO winters are pretty large in the I-40 corridor. The map is pretty different from the El Nino snow composite map, despite most high WPO+ years occurring in El Ninos.

[raindancewx]

One of the main contributors to the cooling by Japan -

 

[uncle W]

right now I'm hoping we get at least a weak la nina...it looks like a weak la nina and neg qbo winter coming up...2000-01, 2005-06 and 2017-18 were neg qbo with a la nina...56-57 too...56-57 had a negative ao Feb and March...2000-01 was negative in Dec thru March...05-06 was negative Dec thru March...17-18 was slightly Neg until March...then very neg at the beginning of March....56-57 had a neg nao in March only...00-01 had a neg nao in Dec and March...05-06 had a neg nao in Dec, Feb-Mar...17-18 had a neg nao in March only...

all had a neg ao/nao in March...only 1956-57 had no major snowstorm in NYC...long periods of cold the end of Dec into early January with major snows 2000-01 and 2017-18...05-06 had a December cold period and a major storm in February...56-57 had a major cold spell in January despite a very positive ao...all these analogs had a big thaw and warm period...I wouldn't base a forecast on enso and qbo alone...but it looks like March could have a neg ao/nao...only 2018 cash in with late season big snows in NYC...

[raindancewx]

Atlantic is currently similar to warmed up August 1938. Pacific is very different unfortunately.

[StormchaserChuck!]

all +PNA for the next 15 days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:32 AM, uncle W said:

right now I'm hoping we get at least a weak la nina...it looks like a weak la nina and neg qbo winter coming up...2000-01, 2005-06 and 2017-18 were neg qbo with a la nina...56-57 too...56-57 had a negative ao Feb and March...2000-01 was negative in Dec thru March...05-06 was negative Dec thru March...17-18 was slightly Neg until March...then very neg at the beginning of March....56-57 had a neg nao in March only...00-01 had a neg nao in Dec and March...05-06 had a neg nao in Dec, Feb-Mar...17-18 had a neg nao in March only...

all had a neg ao/nao in March...only 1956-57 had no major snowstorm in NYC...long periods of cold the end of Dec into early January with major snows 2000-01 and 2017-18...05-06 had a December cold period and a major storm in February...56-57 had a major cold spell in January despite a very positive ao...all these analogs had a big thaw and warm period...I wouldn't base a forecast on enso and qbo alone...but it looks like March could have a neg ao/nao...only 2018 cash in with late season big snows in NYC...

March 2006 could have easily been a pretty snowy month, but we just couldn't buy a break...kind of like last January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/16/2021 at 7:21 PM, raindancewx said:

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 21JUL2021     22.1 0.6     25.2-0.4     26.8-0.5     28.5-0.4
 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2

 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5

Still behind last year, especially in Nino 1.2 and Nino 4. Subsurface warmed up a bit this week too on the weekly ENSO PDF the CPC releases each week. The subsurface is still a bit warmer than last year too.

For my purposes, 'flat Neutral' in Nino 3.4 is 26.65C in August. So we've just crossed over to cold-Neutral in mid-August. SOI has also collapsed from over +16 in July to about +4 for the past 30 days. +4 or -4 in August is pretty reliable for what the next winter will do back to the 1930s - it's real close right now.

Do you have the link for the weekly data? The site that I use stopped updating in January...

[raindancewx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have the link for the weekly data? The site that I use stopped updating in January...

It's on the first page of the thread with the explanation for the change.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 07JUL2021     22.2 0.1     26.0-0.0     27.4-0.0     28.9-0.1
 14JUL2021     22.2 0.4     25.9 0.1     27.2-0.1     28.6-0.4
 21JUL2021     22.1 0.6     25.2-0.4     26.8-0.5     28.5-0.4
 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2

 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4

We're still running as warm as last year in Nino 3.4, and warmer most weeks. Other zones remain warmer. The subsurface cooling crash from July to early August seems to be over, with those waters holding at -0.8 or -0.9 month to date. I consider 26.15C (-0.5C v. 1951-2010 in August in Nino 3.4) to be La Nina conditions for the month. But we're still around 26.47C if you go by the weeklies. The monthly data may run a bit under that when next week is included. But probably not below 26.25C or 26.30C - not La Nina conditions yet.

Tentative Jun-Aug SOI matches (if it finishes around +4 in August) include  Jun-Aug 1939, 1947, 1974, 1979, 1999, 2011. 

[GaWx]

This week's Nino 3.4 dropped sharply from -0.4 to -0.9. The OHC remained near -0.9. OLR remains positive. The July SOI of +16.3 was the 11th most positive on record. La Nina continues to be favored for fall/winter per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 I agree with this that La Nina is pretty heavily favored for later autumn/winter based on this combination of factors. I think the best chance is for a moderate La Nina. Consider this:

 Similar 3.4 SST anoms around August 18th and the subsequent winter's ENSO:

2017: -0.5 MLN

2016: -0.5 WLN

2007: -0.6 SLN

2011: -0.8 MLN

2020: -0.8 MLN

2021: -0.9  ??

2010: -1.2 SLN

 

 

 Also, check out the fall/winter ENSO peak when the prior July SOI was within 5 of the 16.3 of 2021:

12.8   SLN 1998

13.4   MLN 1893

13.6  WEN 1979

14.8    NN  1878

16.3     ??   2021

16.6   SLN  1955

17.2   WLN 1938

18.7   SLN  2010

19.0   MLN  1910

19.6    NN   1950

20.2   MLN  1879

[George001]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This week's Nino 3.4 dropped sharply from -0.4 to -0.9. The OHC remained near -0.9. OLR remains positive. The July SOI of +16.3 was the 11th most positive on record. La Nina continues to be favored for fall/winter per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 I agree with this that La Nina is pretty heavily favored for later autumn/winter based on this combination of factors. I think the best chance is for a moderate La Nina. Consider this:

 Similar 3.4 SST anoms around August 18th and the subsequent winter's ENSO:

2017: -0.5 MLN

2016: -0.5 WLN

2007: -0.6 SLN

2011: -0.8 MLN

2020: -0.8 MLN

2021: -0.9  ??

2010: -1.2 SLN

 

 

 Also, check out the fall/winter ENSO peak when the prior July SOI was within 5 of the 16.3 of 2021:

12.8   SLN 1998

13.4   MLN 1893

13.6  WEN 1979

14.8    NN  1878

16.3     ??   2021

16.6   SLN  1955

17.2   WLN 1938

18.7   SLN  2010

19.0   MLN  1910

19.6    NN   1950

20.2   MLN  1879

-.9 already? WOW. That is already borderline moderate strength and summer hasn’t even ended yet. It looked like the La Niña was slowing down for a couple of weeks but we made up that lost ground fast. 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb when looking at the similar ONI and SOI readings by late August. When looking at both the ONI and SOI and comparing similar readings, more strong la ninas show up than weak ones.