2021-2022 ENSO

[raindancewx]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

8%? Lame.. we are definitely going Weak El Nino by July probably. 

[raindancewx]

If the subsurface for 100-180W stays around +0.6 for May, the top matches for Spring start to look like 1989, 1991, 2011, and 2018 among others.

[StormchaserChuck!]

among others? We probably break +0.5c at the surface quickly. 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

If the subsurface for 100-180W stays around +0.6 for May, the top matches for Spring start to look like 1989, 1991, 2011, and 2018 among others.

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs.

I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

[raindancewx]

Assuming the subsurface is +0.66 or so in May for 100-180W, the closest matches for March-May are 1987, 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011, 2018.

100-180	Mar	Apr	May
1987	0.60	0.31	0.58
1989	0.42	0.50	0.61
1991	0.18	0.80	0.76
2009	0.08	0.65	0.87
2011	0.50	0.58	0.47
2018	0.51	0.80	0.88
2021	0.27	0.60	0.66

Also looks like our friends in Japan are close to restoring the Jamstec seasonal website after the hacking issue.

Also meant to mention the other day, the Nov-Apr PDO value finished around -0.8. That's the most negative PDO for that period in a long time. Last Nov-Apr more negative was 2011-12. For the past 30-years, it's a top five negative PDO value for Nov-Apr.

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nice little subsurface configuration today.. I think we are going Moderate El Nino. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1
 28APR2021     24.0-1.0     26.9-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.0
 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1

The cold first half of May was something I expected this month. I had May 1979, 2008, and 2019 as three of the five analogs for May back in February. Large areas of the US below 5F in H1 May in a few of those years. May has been pretty wet in parts of New Mexico, that's correlated rather well with +NAO November years (near record + in Nov 2020) and the +WPO years in January (record + in January 2021).

Wouldn't be May out here without crazy hail either and high elevation snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/13/2021 at 10:40 PM, raindancewx said:

Assuming the subsurface is +0.66 or so in May for 100-180W, the closest matches for March-May are 1987, 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011, 2018.

100-180	Mar	Apr	May
1987	0.60	0.31	0.58
1989	0.42	0.50	0.61
1991	0.18	0.80	0.76
2009	0.08	0.65	0.87
2011	0.50	0.58	0.47
2018	0.51	0.80	0.88
2021	0.27	0.60	0.66

Also looks like our friends in Japan are close to restoring the Jamstec seasonal website after the hacking issue.

Also meant to mention the other day, the Nov-Apr PDO value finished around -0.8. That's the most negative PDO for that period in a long time. Last Nov-Apr more negative was 2011-12. For the past 30-years, it's a top five negative PDO value for Nov-Apr.

 

 

Thanks for that info. I sent out an email trying to get some feedback on that a day or two ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/13/2021 at 9:46 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs.

I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

I wouldn't say that....def. not as pervasive as it once was....

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, the Super Nino in 1997 broke it I think. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, the Super Nino in 1997 broke it I think. 

Its just being attenuated somewhat by the ambient warming.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, we should average about +0.5c for ENSO right now, and it's about +0.2

[uncle W]

On 5/13/2021 at 9:46 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs.

I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

its only a starting point...there is always an analog that is a good fit but finding it before the fact is the hard part...

[raindancewx]

The ENSO signal sort of got over-ridden by the AO/NAO going crazy (+) in November and then the WPO also going ~record positive/negative at times in Fall-Spring. The wetness out here recently is arguably more tied to the +WPO/NAO than the ENSO changes. There has been actually been somewhat substantial reduction in drought in both eastern NM and eastern CO in recent weeks. My idea for the cold season had been 2007-08 -ish, given that year had a positive WPO despite a healthy La Nina, which is fairly unusual. The main issue with 2007 was always that the pattern was telegraphing at least some -NAO periods as early as September for the cold season. April and May NAO behavior is useful to look at for the winter when anchored to ENSO transition conditions, so will be interesting to see if the subsurface keeps warming. NAO was negative in 2020/2021 in April after being positive that month for a decade.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0 
20MAY2020     23.9-0.3     26.4-0.7     27.4-0.5     28.9-0.1

Last year this is when the La Nina began.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1
 28APR2021     24.0-1.0     26.9-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.0
 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1

Subsurface warmth is there still , but is actually thinning a bit on the ENSO animation and PDF.

[raindancewx]

Canadian Model has trended much warmer in the short term in the tropical pacific but still shows a La Nina redeveloping in Fall.

[raindancewx]

On 5/13/2021 at 8:40 PM, raindancewx said:

Assuming the subsurface is +0.66 or so in May for 100-180W, the closest matches for March-May are 1987, 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011, 2018.

100-180	Mar	Apr	May
1987	0.60	0.31	0.58
1989	0.42	0.50	0.61
1991	0.18	0.80	0.76
2009	0.08	0.65	0.87
2011	0.50	0.58	0.47
2018	0.51	0.80	0.88
2021	0.27	0.60	0.66

Also looks like our friends in Japan are close to restoring the Jamstec seasonal website after the hacking issue.

Also meant to mention the other day, the Nov-Apr PDO value finished around -0.8. That's the most negative PDO for that period in a long time. Last Nov-Apr more negative was 2011-12. For the past 30-years, it's a top five negative PDO value for Nov-Apr.

 

 

+0.69. A weighted blend of 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011 is pretty close to May observations for the US temp profile.

[raindancewx]

 

On 2/24/2021 at 12:21 AM, raindancewx said:

New CPC baseline for La Nina / El Nino is super warm mid-year.  Changes from 1951-2010 averages in Nino 3.4 to 1991-2020 averages by month are below.

Jan  26.45 / 26.55  (+0.10)

Feb  26.65 / 26.76  (+0.11)

Mar  27.13 /  27.29   (+0.16)

Apr   27.55 /  27.83  (+0.28)

May  27.67 /  27.94   (+0.27)

Jun   27.47 /  27.73   (+0.26)

Jul    27.04  / 27.29   (+0.25)

Aug   26.65 / 26.86   (+0.21)

Sep   26.54 / 26.72   (+0.18)

Oct    26.50 / 26.72  (+0.22)

Nov   26.49 / 26.70   (+0.21)

Dec   26.45 / 26.60   (+0.15)

27.45C in Nino 3.4 in May 2021 is -0.5C against 1991-2020 but solidly Neutral long-term. Euro missed the boat on May too.

[StormchaserChuck!]

There is +3 below the surface in the east, it's going to warm Nino 3 up a lot in the next few weeks. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1
 28APR2021     24.0-1.0     26.9-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.0
 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2

 

I am cautiously optimistic that Summer in the US will not be blazing hot everywhere. Think we say a warm start cool finish in the West, with consistent heat waves and cold shots for the East. We'll see soon enough. Some fairly cold Summers shows up as good SST matches locally.

[StormchaserChuck!]

El Nino cancel and La Nina weak coming back it looks like per latest subsurface. I would say it would be interesting to see how much of that +3 in the eastern subsurface surfaces in the next few weeks, but surface doesn't matter at all, honestly. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 6/1/2021 at 1:21 AM, raindancewx said:

Canadian Model has trended much warmer in the short term in the tropical pacific but still shows a La Nina redeveloping in Fall.

Oh goody...so we're seeing that annoying 2-year la nina thing again?  (didn't this like...just happen a few years ago in 2016-17 and 17-18?)

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/11/2021 at 10:15 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh goody...so we're seeing that annoying 2-year la nina thing again?  (didn't this like...just happen a few years ago in 2016-17 and 17-18?)

Lol yea tailing off a super nino, seems fairly typical in that sense. The last time a similiarish situation occurred was back in 2007-08/ 08-09 coming off a weak nino to a multi la nina of similar intensity. So will be interesting if we fall back into or maintain la nina status with this. Not many times do we see a setup like that. It was looking good for an el nino to fire up but subsurface is fading hard. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1

Subsurface has cooled recently. But still neutral overall. I've always been high on the idea of a Neutral or an El Nino. At this point, Neutral seems possible. Certain things in the northern oceans have looked like 2013 at times since last Fall. The blazing mid-June heat here is certainly reminiscent and ties in well to near identical precipitation patterns in the SW to the 2012-13 cold season. Year over year, the subsurface is still much warmer than last year, and the surface will be too if it isn't currently. Should be a much different Summer than last year.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

That's pretty cool, now that an El Nino's not happening, there's a big +PNA.

[raindancewx]

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2
 12MAY2021     23.9-0.6     26.8-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 19MAY2021     23.5-0.7     26.7-0.4     27.7-0.2     28.9-0.0
 26MAY2021     23.4-0.5     26.7-0.3     27.6-0.3     28.8-0.1
 02JUN2021     23.2-0.4     26.6-0.2     27.6-0.2     28.8-0.2
 09JUN2021     23.2-0.0     26.7-0.0     27.8-0.0     28.9-0.1
 16JUN2021     23.3 0.4     26.0-0.5     27.2-0.5     28.8-0.2

Subsurface has warmed up a bit this week. I've liked 2012-13 as a good precipitation analog for a while. It's pretty close on Levi's site too. The heat wave timing out here is fairly similar to June 2013, prior to a very wet July. GFS and to some extent Euro have been showing a pretty good wet period coming up soon here. CPC has it too now in the 6-10.

[raindancewx]

The trend on the Euro plume for June actually reminds me a lot of 2012. Although it doesn't "look right" to me either.

An El Nino tried to form in Summer 2012. Died in the Fall. That's what the Euro has. I consider 2012-13 a cold-Neutral though for winter, not a La Nina. Against 1951-2010 averages, it was around -0.4C at the coldest point late winter, -0.3 overall. 

              Jan       Feb        Mar       Apr      May        Jun         Jul        Aug      Sept      Oct        Nov       Dec      DJF

2012    25.67    26.08    26.67    27.32    27.61    27.75    27.54    27.32    27.10    26.98    26.86    26.34    26.20
2021    25.54    25.75    26.49    27.10    27.44 

60 yr    26.45    26.65    27.13    27.55    27.67    27.47    27.04    26.65    26.54    26.50    26.49    26.45

[raindancewx]

Since March, with a major exception for April, the US temperature profile has resembled 2016 at a decent clip. The fierce heat is in a similar location this month for instance.

For May, you can see 2016 was pretty cold too.

March was very hot with less heat West.

Going forward, Nino 3.4 is likely to move toward where it was in 2016. Will be worth watching to see how July and August behave.