2021-2022 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/27/2023 at 12:16 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. (It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73.)

It's not going to be like '82 or '97...we just had one of those 7 years ago.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 1/27/2023 at 12:16 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. (It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73.)

Certainly well within  the realm of possibility.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still feel like a favorable el nino will evolve.

Yeah we're already 1 year in the future here. 

[raindancewx]

Impressive how much colder the Indian Ocean has been year/year with this La Nina. The volcano likely helped destroy the warmth east of Australia too. 

My idea from October was a wetter than average / colder than average winter in the Southwest. That's pretty likely to verify in at least some spots despite the La Nina. The localized +5F winter for New England may also verify.

[snowman19]

It's not going to be like '82 or '97...we just had one of those 7 years ago.

@40/70 Benchmark If this is correct, it looks like an east-based El Niño is starting to develop:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The western subsurface waters are really warm so it has plenty of fuel...

It waned a little bit but March isn't late for a Strong Nino to still take hold. What I worry about is this constant -PNA in the N. Pacific, which models have even at D-15 now. Usually there is a small, but decent correlation between developing ENSO events and N. Pacific pattern in the late Winter. 

[bdgwx]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hadley Cell expansion index (my estimation) is about equal to a +3-4c El Nino right now. This correlates with -PNA conditions, and a -NAO in 1-2 years time, (it lifts up to -nao/ao+time). This means that to match the highest frequency globally right now, we would have to have at least a +3c Nino 3.4 El Nino (+4c longer term). 

(a negative -nao/ao from this is not organic, so over the course of, say, a decade it would not dominate. an example of this is Winter 09-10, hadley cell expansions move up and out to release.) 

[snowman19]

Paul Roundy is on the strong El Niño train. In previous tweets he said he believes this is going to be a very significant event, believes it may go strong

[roardog]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy is on the strong El Niño train. In previous tweets he said he believes this is going to be a very significant event, believes it may go strong

It reminds me of this time last year when the hype was about how strong the Nina was going to be. That hype didn’t pan out.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 2/3/2023 at 9:16 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Certainly well within  the realm of possibility.

I'll stand by what I wrote on 2/3/2023 regarding the El Nino being comparable to 82 or 97....it certainly is well within the realm of possibility.