Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 ^Same as last year though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 ^Same as last year though. (Subsurface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 >+7f hitting 180W now.. they sometimes look like this before Strong Nino's but it's December.. 12/5. atmosphere seems to consider Jan-Mar in the subsurface historically. I think I found it was like 3-1-3 before then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: >+7f hitting 180W now.. they sometimes look like this before Strong Nino's but it's December.. 12/5. atmosphere seems to consider Jan-Mar in the subsurface historically. I think I found it was like 3-1-3 before then. I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year. Yeah it seems like we are building up a lot of potential energy.. that's all maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 This is what happened last time we had a Kelvin Wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year. As long as it's not TOO strong! That happened in the 70s...2 back-to-back ninas, followed by a super niño that overwhelmed everything...that in turn lead to 2 more la ninas after it, lol I'd like to think we can avoid that again, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As long as it's not TOO strong! That happened in the 70s...2 back-to-back ninas, followed by a super niño that overwhelmed everything...that in turn lead to 2 more la ninas after it, lol I'd like to think we can avoid that again, but who knows? I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/6/2022 at 11:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength. I hope the El Niño stays weak next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 On 12/6/2022 at 11:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength. @MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene. Huh? Of course...Now I use the weenie reaction differently: Not to call someone a weenie in the "that was wishful thinking" manner, but rather a "Awesome!" in a similar way I'd use the reaction if a model run looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh? Of course...Now I use the weenie reaction differently: Not to call someone a weenie in the "that was wishful thinking" manner, but rather a "Awesome!" in a similar way I'd use the reaction if a model run looked good. Oh, ok...gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Still looks like 1984 to me. I'm not a huge fan of that year, but it's the best match I've found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless, I've never seen daily SOI values of +50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Chuck or someone - isn’t it time to start a new ENSO topic as it appears we will at least end La Niña and looking more likely that an inevitable El Niño could be coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 We are getting warm to near record warm in the western ENSO subsurface now.. this is *C, so if it's *F, that's about +10F, or 10degrees above average.. subsurface water normal temperature of 55 degrees would be about 65 degrees now. Differences in the N. Pacific pattern happen starting around 170W and -200m, to 120W and -100m.. that region is overall negative anomalies right now (favoring RNA, -PNA) Only years that were this extreme in the subsurface were 1997..March. and 1982 Jan/Feb. If I'm wrong, someone correct me (memory from ~5+ years ago). I think this favors a Strong El Nono, with 70% chance of overall El Nino conditions later this year. But we are hitting strong -PNA in the first few days of February on LR models, so an atmospheric correction (nolag) has occurred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I would bet on +PNA conditions in April, and -PNA default in March, and maybe something resembling March31-Apr1 1997, but that's "3rd position point" of tampering/\/. lol(the storm correlation if it happens) (^Nevermind +PNA March-Apr-May 2023, we had a strong N. Pacific Ocean 500mb vortex last March-April-May, which I think is this emerging El Nino already considered. [Extra point, I haven't been too scientifically oriented.] can obviously do better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 blizzards in Flagstaff (warm subsurface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Will be interesting to see if the El Nino holds, if we have a -PNA March.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 On 1/23/2023 at 2:22 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Will be interesting to see if the El Nino holds, if we have a -PNA March.... I don't think that matters one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 So, any updates on how it's looking right now? Haven't seen a real update here in awhile! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So, any updates on how it's looking right now? Haven't seen a real update here in awhile! I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. (It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73. ....sorry didn't see the ones from earlier this week. appreciate your patience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 On 1/27/2023 at 11:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think that matters one bit. As of right now.. will probably change when models change If we are more +PNA Feb 5-21 we are stuck will possibly a -PNA March. If -PNA hits Feb 5-21 like models are currently showing, there could be some subsurface ENSO strength going into March(which actually won't matter ultimately!) If we run through both timeperiods independent, we are more likely to have an organic ENSO event this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 -PNA getting beat up on MR/LR models.. hard to sustain when warm +2-3c waters are hitting the central-200m subsurface. We've been doing this silly reverse-years thing since 2020. It gives credence to next February being +PNA, but the rest of the Winter has had low pressure more common in the N. Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 La Nina signal here as -AAM is a La Nina-base state. If we are going into Strong El Nino, you want to see different things transpiring in real time. El Nino for 2023 looks like it's taking a 2nd place stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 -AAM again at 12z 384hr. Not the pattern you would see if the +10f in the central subsurface -200m has more relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 On 1/27/2023 at 12:12 PM, Maestrobjwa said: So, any updates on how it's looking right now? Haven't seen a real update here in awhile! I still feel like a favorable el nino will evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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