2021-2022 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

I posed this question to Raindance awhile back, which he blew off because he has a habit of doing that....but does anyone have any thoughts on the actual physical connection between tropical ACE value and the ensuing pattern during the following cold season? I have never seen it discussed much beyond the just maps illustrating the correlation...

My rather crude, "no shit, Sherlock" guess is that the amount of latent heat energy released into the atmosphere can have an impact on shaping the hemispheric pattern for months ahead.

I would guess higher ACE would generally support a tendency for greater heights near the pole for several months out.

Interesting-

[SnoSki14]

So how do you explain 2013? 

Well below average ACE, non-El Nino

Following winter was cold & snowy

[George001]

To get a big winter in SNE we need more Miller Bs and less Miller As (as Ray likes to call it, Miller Asshole).

[StruThiO]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

So how do you explain 2013? 

Well below average ACE, non-El Nino

Following winter was cold & snowy

Oddball year with a springtime THC collapse

[raindancewx]

One thing that is lost about 2011 is you did have a big volcanic eruption that year. It's an Iceland volcano though, that's why I'm quite sure it won't really be a good analog overall by winter. The volcano earlier this year supposedly put an enormous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere, but not too much aerosol / S04 material. It's only a fraction of the cooling effect that Pinatubo had, and likely more regional.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–2012_Puyehue-Cordón_Caulle_eruption

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chichón

The blend I listed is actually quite remarkable in that it is the three most recent La Ninas following major volcanoes. 

As far as 2013-14 goes, I don't consider it a La Nina. All the ACE stuff I've listed only works in La Ninas. The years like 2013-14 that never quite drop to 26.0C in Nino 3.4, but get close for a month or two, often act like La Ninas at times, but not always. At the subsurface, February 2014 was already close to an El Nino anyway (+0.39). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

No hurricane through August 21 would knock out a bunch more active years. Leaves just 1942, 1983, 1984, 1988 since 1930 La Ninas.

My position with ACE has always been that it is an indicator of strength in the subtropical ridge. When the ridge is weak in Summer, the Gulf gets nuked, and then the Southwest is hot/dry in Winter with the stronger ridge forming to the West. The more extreme ACE seasons will even see the NW quite warm (1933-34) fairly often. When the ridge is strong in Summer, the Gulf is hot/dry (look at TX this Summer), and the SW benefits from the weakness in winter (go look at who managed to have a cold winter in the very warm 2011-12)

 

[raindancewx]

To me, this is only possible with weaknesses in the subtropical ridge. These are astounding totals for here in two months. The old Don Sutherland curse.

[StormchaserChuck!]

El Nino pattern day 15 models. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Continued really strong and defined +PNA (right now)

Subsurface cooling for the last month is among one of the most extreme on records, except for Strong Nino's

CPC is probably -6 to -7 right now. I expect this to gradually start warming, given the N. Pacific pattern for the next 15 days. At this time of the year the trend is set for at least through February-March (la nina). 

[so_whats_happening]

^^^ That would be a lovely pattern into winter, if only.

We may get another round of easterlies coming up here.

[StormchaserChuck!]

5 rounds of +PNA load on 12z GFS ensembles

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may be alone on this, but I expect a good amount of +PNA this winter.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Actually, I expect it to moderate once the late Oct/Nov time begins. I think we'll go -PNA for the Winter, el nino tendency in the spring,etc.. the atmosphere needs to catch up. Getting bored.  These guys are worth $1

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December.

It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.

[thunderbolt]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December.

It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.

What would be the implications if this were to take place for the winter At least according to the Euro model

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

What would be the implications if this were to take place for the winter At least according to the Euro model

The potential implication would be a season that deviates from your prototypical "la nina" winter.

[GaWx]

 We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research:

1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1

 I'll discuss the SE US since I'm there and most familiar with their history in addition to not many folks posting about it in this thread. However, some of this is similar in much of the E 1/3 of the US in general.

 Regarding these 8 winters:

 - 1874-5: nothing of note

 - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan pretty cold overall

 - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note

 - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast

 -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter

 -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges

 - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter 

 - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous snow in Dec. as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta

 

 Summary of temperatures for analogs:

- Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild

- Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild

- Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record

 

 My conclusions for SE US this winter:

- Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan.

- These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything.

- With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter.

----------------------

 I used this from Eric Webb to find the 8 ENSO analogs:

https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

[StormchaserChuck!]

600dm -PNA coming up in 6 days.. analogs agree with my theory of a +PNA December

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

600dm -PNA coming up in 6 days.. analogs agree with my theory of a +PNA December

Yea, agree RE December.....but we'll see.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I was looking at this too for January and February

[raindancewx]

Cold ENSO, low ACE (<120 total), 2-3 inches of rain in Albuquerque in August (currently: 2.43"). The non-2011 years are also excellent precipitation matches.  Wettest August here in 16 years - way overdue. The month is not particularly close to ending just yet though.

My current analog finalists are something like this:

Temps: 1959, 1970, 1971, 1983, 1984, 1985, 2011, 2020 (I still like 2004 as a good anti-log too for most periods)

Precip:  1974, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2013, 2016

If you add 0.2C everywhere for the warming since 1996, where that blend is centered, you end up with a pretty close SST match actually. I suspect this is actually a pretty decent blend, but I'd like to see how September goes. Have some other contending blends too.

[raindancewx]

https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/large-volcanic-eruptions-can-alter-hurricane-strength-and-frequency

I have a whole bunch of papers I like on volcanism and weather patterns, but this one is probably the most relevant for the idiotic forecasts of hyperactivity this year following a VEI 5-6 eruption. Major volcanic eruptions in the tropics + ENSO have been studied for a while.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

[raindancewx]

Some thoughts about the winter. I don't have a winter blend yet. But I'm fairly certain in the specific stuff I outlined above the actual years.

Very Early / General Winter Idea for New Mexico 2022-23

Important Features:
"Volcanic Winter", with extra moisture in the sky.
"Dead Hurricane Season" Winter for N-Hemisphere
La Nina that fades fast into Neutral or El Nino in Jan-Mar
High Solar Activity

Less Important Features / Indicators of Heat/Moisture Budget Allocation:
Heavy SW US August Rains (favored in high solar)
Heavy SW US June Rains (weak SW ridging winter indicator)
Early SW US heat that faded later Summer (EPO indicator)
High Sea Ice Extent in Aug-Sept (favored cold AMO)

What It Means:
- Extremely wet periods (SW US) are likely in Fall and/or Spring in volcanic periods.
- Few to no major hurricane days are highly correlated to wetter winters SW US in La Nina.
- Dead hurricane seasons are correlated to savage cold SW US in mid-Dec to mid-Jan.
- Early heat (90F before 5/15 in ABQ) favors a cold winter almost always (via EPO look?).
- High solar favors heavy rain/snow in March in the SW US.
- Heavy rain in June in cold-ENSO favors frequent snows (typically 5 months v. normal Nina of 2-3).
- Heavy rain in August, especially if coupled with October favors heavy precip March, heavy snow March, and high      SW US seasonal snow totals generally.
- La Nina falling apart in Jan-Apr would favor a warm SW US Feb-Mar, with a cool late Spring.
- Dead NW Pacific hurricane season generally favors major winter +WPO looks.
- Active monsoon often favors wet/cold/snowy Western US Decembers.
- Eastern US has generally been cold in cold-ENSO with high(er) min sea ice extent since 2007. Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb? - Northeast US generally sees less snow in low-ACE La Nina, effect is strongest by Philadelphia

Candidates for SW US Extreme Wetness Based on Matching Observations:
- NM: September, October, December, March, May. Unlikely: Nov, Jan, Apr.
- Best guesses for ABQ snow: October, December, January, February, March. Unlikely: Nov (-WPO / cold SE?)
- Favored for heavy ABQ snow: mid-Dec to mid-Jan, March.

Overall Look - something like 
1959-60 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, high solar)
1984-85 (=QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La, active monsoon, low sun, high ice)
1996-97 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active monsoon/hurricane season, followed La Nina, turns into El Nino early, low sun)
2011-12 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, followed La Nina, near El Nino mid-2012, high solar, dead mons)
2013-14 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, turned to El Nino, high solar, high sea ice)
2020-21 (+QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, poor monsoon, low solar, followed El Nino)
-2004-05(+QBO, warm ENSO, after warm ENSO, big hurricane season, turns to La, med solar)

2022-23 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, active monsoon, high sun, follows La, high sea ice)

Possible Substitutions
1954-55 (-QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed El Nino, weak monsoon, low sun)
1971-72 (+QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed La Nina)
1974-75 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La Nina, active monsoon, low sun)
1978-79 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season)
1983-84 (-QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, follows El, volcanic)
2016-17 (+QBO, ~cold ENSO, active hurricane season, follows El, weak monsoon)

Best objective matches - US pretty cold? Possible but likely will change.
1971-72, 1974-75 (x2), 1984-85 (x3), 2011-12, 2013-14, 2020-21, -2004-05

[raindancewx]

Here is an updated look at the Atlantic in the current La Nina v. the last 10. Someone had suggested I use the OISST database. Will be curious to see how August looks. You can see how cold the Tropical Atlantic is to the prior 10 La Nina Julys. We're definitely nearing the cold-AMO. 

The IOD actually stands out quite a bit too.

The real question is...what the hell is this map doing with colored anomalies over land?

[raindancewx]

On 8/15/2022 at 5:40 PM, raindancewx said:

This is my little visual for the low ACE / late or no-hurricane La Ninas.

 

Looks like we made it. August finished up as an extremely close match to 1970. Some kind of blend of 1970, 1971, 1984, 1996, 2020 works well. January 1971 featured near-all time record heat and all-time record cold in the Southwest and shows up as a warm month. Locally...we had highs near 70 and lows near -20 in the same month in ABQ. I know people say "La Nina = -PNA" or whatever, but those correlations don't exist in Summer if you look on the CPC correlations by time page. Correlation in Summer for the PNA is near 0. The variable CPC lists as "Solar" has near double the correlation to the PNA as Nino 3.4 in August...I doubt anyone here believes sunspots control the PNA in August?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_aug.txt

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/16/2022 at 7:54 PM, raindancewx said:

One thing that is lost about 2011 is you did have a big volcanic eruption that year. It's an Iceland volcano though, that's why I'm quite sure it won't really be a good analog overall by winter. The volcano earlier this year supposedly put an enormous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere, but not too much aerosol / S04 material. It's only a fraction of the cooling effect that Pinatubo had, and likely more regional.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–2012_Puyehue-Cordón_Caulle_eruption

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chichón

The blend I listed is actually quite remarkable in that it is the three most recent La Ninas following major volcanoes. 

As far as 2013-14 goes, I don't consider it a La Nina. All the ACE stuff I've listed only works in La Ninas. The years like 2013-14 that never quite drop to 26.0C in Nino 3.4, but get close for a month or two, often act like La Ninas at times, but not always. At the subsurface, February 2014 was already close to an El Nino anyway (+0.39). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

No hurricane through August 21 would knock out a bunch more active years. Leaves just 1942, 1983, 1984, 1988 since 1930 La Ninas.

My position with ACE has always been that it is an indicator of strength in the subtropical ridge. When the ridge is weak in Summer, the Gulf gets nuked, and then the Southwest is hot/dry in Winter with the stronger ridge forming to the West. The more extreme ACE seasons will even see the NW quite warm (1933-34) fairly often. When the ridge is strong in Summer, the Gulf is hot/dry (look at TX this Summer), and the SW benefits from the weakness in winter (go look at who managed to have a cold winter in the very warm 2011-12)

 

One random thought with the Hunga Tonga Eruption. Releasing that much water vapor into the upper atmosphere would this not potentially induce a warming within the stratosphere with that large amount of water vapor being added? If we induce a warming in the stratosphere from the incoming solar radiation is it possible this then allows the tropospheric portion to cool or be cooler? I know SO2 is usually the main driver in inducing cooling hemispherically or globally, depending on location of the eruption, but wouldn't water vapor create a similar process but one that is thermodynamically driven. It surely will be up in those portions of the atmosphere for many many years to come and should be most likely a southern hemisphere thing but would love to know what that amount of water vapor could do to the system.

We are technically starting to get within the time frame where large volcanic eruptions show up in some data, usually is about 6 months after the eruption. 

[so_whats_happening]

42 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

One random thought with the Hunga Tonga Eruption. Releasing that much water vapor into the upper atmosphere would this not potentially induce a warming within the stratosphere with that large amount of water vapor being added? If we induce a warming in the stratosphere from the incoming solar radiation is it possible this then allows the tropospheric portion to cool or be cooler? I know SO2 is usually the main driver in inducing cooling hemispherically or globally, depending on location of the eruption, but wouldn't water vapor create a similar process but one that is thermodynamically driven. It surely will be up in those portions of the atmosphere for many many years to come and should be most likely a southern hemisphere thing but would love to know what that amount of water vapor could do to the system.

We are technically starting to get within the time frame where large volcanic eruptions show up in some data, usually is about 6 months after the eruption. 

Guess not technically water vapor will have a net cooling effect in the stratosphere.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[raindancewx]

Subsurface 100-180W for 2022: 

June: +0.31

July:  -0.46

August: -0.96

Last year was almost identical (+0.31 / -0.40 / -0.83)

Doubt it will hold though.

I've already laid out my position on that volcano like four times. It's an unusual eruption because it was a net exporter of green house gasses, not aerosols. Net aerosol eruptions in the southern hemisphere traditionally enhance N-Hem hurricane activity according to the paper I linked. We've seen the opposite effect, more akin to an N-hem aerosol emitting volcano. 

I don't have a blend for winter, but the flaws of 1984/2012 as analogs actually cancel out pretty well. Pretty sure I'm going to use those two years in conjunction with at least three others.

For temperatures, 2011 was a good match nationally from April to July. But it's been quite terrible now for precipitation for several months - very wet in the Northeast where it has been very dry, and it was very dry in the West, where it has been very wet. The 1984/2012 blend is the simplest combo I can think of that's "OK" for both temps and precip in Summer.

I'm pretty tempted to do something like this for the winter. But I'm still testing for now. 

1959-60 (x2), 1984-85 (x2), 2012-13 (x2), 2013-14, 2016-17, -2004-05 (x2)

That's a pretty wet winter, with severe cold at times, but it wouldn't be concentrated in one region/month. It would move around a lot, especially if the La Nina collapses late. I think you guys in the NE would still be warm in December, but not in February. The map doesn't show it, but I doubled -2004-05

It's ~relatively there for SSTs. Indian Ocean Dipole is right, the Atlantic is warm by the East Coast. La Nina is fairly intense but centered West, and it would collapse quickly late with those years. The current warm spot in the NE Pacific has been weakening too. (For -2004, I do actual ACE - mean ACE = +104, and then mean ACE - 104 to flip it)

ACE: 1959-60 (77), 1984-85 (84), 2012-13 (133), 2013 (36), 2016 (141), -2004 (19) = 80 ACE

QBO: should be net positive in the blend for winter.

ENSO order: should be negative with 2004 flipped (if 2004 followed a +0.5C event, I'd count it as a -0.5C event)

[raindancewx]

Last year's event spent over a month below -1.2 in the 100-180W zone, from 0-300m down. Much milder cold looks like a lock at this point. Might already be tailing off or weakening - we'll see next week. There are quite a few events historically that peak Fall rather than around December, before weakening. Each substantial warm up below the surface has corresponded in near-real time to a cold and/or wet/snowy period here, with the super-cold Februaries, cold & wet June this year, and so on.

I'd expect a rapid increase below the surface - should it happen in Oct/Nov would correspond to an immediate cold / stormy period in the SW in Nov or Dec. The hurricane season stuff I look at implies a very cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan period locally though - unless it blows it up a lot real soon. September is at maybe ~10 ACE, with month 1/6 over.  The 1991-2020 half-way point of the season is 9/12, so any quiet period after the current relative storminess will make it very hard to catch up with average totals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Last year's event spent over a month below -1.2 in the 100-180W zone, from 0-300m down. Much milder cold looks like a lock at this point. Might already be tailing off or weakening - we'll see next week. There are quite a few events historically that peak Fall rather than around December, before weakening. Each substantial warm up below the surface has corresponded in near-real time to a cold and/or wet/snowy period here, with the super-cold Februaries, cold & wet June this year, and so on.

I'd expect a rapid increase below the surface - should it happen in Oct/Nov would correspond to an immediate cold / stormy period in the SW in Nov or Dec. The hurricane season stuff I look at implies a very cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan period locally though - unless it blows it up a lot real soon. September is at maybe ~10 ACE, with month 1/6 over.  The 1991-2020 half-way point of the season is 9/12, so any quiet period after the current relative storminess will make it very hard to catch up with average totals.

Don't worry, someone will come in with a tweet from Eric Webb showing some random wind anomaly that supposedly supports the strongest la nina in the history of the universe.

Writing is on the wall for a rapid demise after a border line weak/mod peak later this fall...been saying it since mid summer.

[George001]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry, someone will come in with a tweet from Eric Webb showing some random wind anomaly that supposedly supports the strongest la nina in the history of the universe.

Writing is on the wall for a rapid demise after a border line weak/mod peak later this fall...been saying it since mid summer.

Yeah it looks like the recent rise in subsurface temps is hinting at the dynamical guidance camp (faster decay of the nina) having the right idea rather than the statistical guidance that Keeps the La Niña at low end moderate well into winter. If that is the case, the MEI number will start increasing soon. It will be interesting to see what the September guidance looks like.