2021-2022 ENSO

[Terpeast]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Canadian graphic screams +NAO to me...no shock there.

And the pacific doesn’t look good to me either. Pretty grim if the canadian is correct. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

The waters off the east coast and up to nova scotia have just been so flippin warm over the past couple years it really is getting difficult to get true miller A patterns setup feel like the baroclinic zone has just been setting up over the coastal plain rather than offshore. Im not liking how far west based the Nina is, if I remember correctly 2011 was the last west based Nina and winter was well... Feel the eerie 2011 vibes right now with SST configuration in the tropical pacific. See how it plays out.

It is going to be more of a modoki la nina this season, but at as long as it remains relatively weak, which it should, then that isn't necessary an absolute death knell.

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is going to be more of a modoki la nina this season, but at as long as it remains relatively weak, which it should, then that isn't necessary an absolute death knell.

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well. 

[raindancewx]

I don't think we'll be similar at all to the early 2010s cold-ENSO winters (10-11, 11-12, 12-13) frankly. You can see the Indian Ocean is completely different from 2011-12. Those Summers, 2011, 2012 they had some special features nationally - lot of mesoscale / derecho stuff, and a lot of east coast tropical stuff, with extraordinary heat and dryness in the Southwest, feeding the latter two. You certainly don't have the dryness and heat here this year, we're running exactly average for 90 degree days where I am against the past 100 years. The year with late October weirdness like 1992 / 2012 usually have the MJO in similar spots by now.

Actually - July was quite dissimilar to the most recent coldest December years in the East. 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013 are probably the five coldest since 1990. 2005 is closest to July, but the "heat hole" that month was right where it was hottest in 2022 which is consistent with my ACE idea - that it indicates where the subtropical highs set up the strongest. You had weakness in the highs in 2005, and so later on those areas got slaughtered with Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc, and then the weakness persisted into winter, with the core high pressure over the SW.

I actually think this winter may be remarkably wet as a defining feature. It should be fascinating to see how the hurricane seasons play out too - the East Pacific is pretty active for La Nina too. We're already close to a lock without an Atlantic hurricane through 8/4, or a major hurricane through 8/4 or 8/5. Last year without an Atlantic hurricane by August was 2017 - but I doubt we will see 175 ACE in September like in 2017. East Pacific hurricane activity is fairly correlated (mostly because it's higher in +ENSO) with more active subtropical jet activity in winter.

~La Nina (actual or near), +Active East Pacific ACE (>133) since 1971.

Currently running 70%+ above average in the East Pacific. Already near total ACE last year in that basin, when it was quite quiet. Composite below is like ~188 ACE, rare in cold ENSO.

1971-72 (139), 1978-79 (208), 1983-84 (206), 1984-85 (194), 1985-86 (193), 2016-17 (185)

Last year for comparison (2021, 94 ACE)

[raindancewx]

As far as what the Canadian shows, it seems to think we're going to a blend of 2013-14, 2016-17, 2020-21, 2021-22.

Verbatim, it shows essentially 2013-14 (x4), 2016-17 (x3), 2020-21 (x2), 2021-22.

The blend is like a B+ match for the IOD/AMO/PDO/ENSO (~26.0C DJF for Nino 3.4) look and also like a C+ match for my solar/ace targets.

Solar(61) /Atlantic ACE (107), NE Pacific ACE (110). I'd guess 100 / 100 / 150 at this point. The La Ninas without a hurricane by this point average ~115 ACE or so historically.

I do expect a pretty healthy La Nina in the fall that is pretty dead by February, so even though this event should get down to 25.5-26.0 in the Fall, I doubt it will be much below average by late February. So I currently expect a weaker DJF than what the Canadian has. You'll likely see the big cold push peak at least initially in Sept/Oct and then flat-line briefly before decaying. I've already started my winter outlook, and plan to have it out by 10/10 again.

Last year I correctly identified the cold snap in NM/TX in Feb 2022 as early as mid-September, so I'll likely have at least some stuff right by October.

[StruThiO]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well. 

Agree; the modoki look will get shredded once this new upwelling KW propagates to the point of emergence. Will very much look classic again then until the transition away in Winter begins IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

Agree; the modoki look will get shredded once this new upwelling KW propagates to the point of emergence. Will very much look classic again then until the transition away in Winter begins IMO

That would be a theoretical positive for winter in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well. 

I'm not that worried about the intensity of la nina....sure, its going to peak at moderate early this fall, buts its going to be weak for the vast majority of winter.

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that worried about the intensity of la nina....sure, its going to peak at moderate early this fall, buts its going to be weak for the vast majority of winter.

I could agree with that intensity may not be the issue. It may be where forcing takes place. If we look at 2010-2011 season we went to strong La Nina status but the cold pool was so far west that it actually ended up being beneficial for us in the east. That with the situation of a -NAO pattern present from the solar minimum that was around at the time. The biggest difference between than and this time frame is the east coast waters. Back then waters were warm south of Greenland and rather chilly across much of the east coast. Right now waters are just wayyy too warm across much of the eastern sea board. This promotes a ridging like pattern (normally) which in turn would drive weather systems inland with pushing of the baroclinic zone on the coast or just inland, as you stated very +NAO like regime. That would be in conjunction of - PNA pattern bearing a -PDO sticks around too.

2016-17 was an interesting one had another scenario with the coldest waters in Nino 4 similar to this year (so far) and warming as you went east. The result was a pretty barren snow land of a winter in the mid atlantic, not entirely sure about the NE though ( I would think interior did well that year with how the 500mb pattern setup). The cooling couth of Greenland seemed to help re-enforce the idea of +NAO that season.

I think the biggest concerns for the upcoming winter scenario could be how extensive those warm waters are in the east. Do they reach up to around Greenland and help promote a pseudo -NAO regime at times or do we get a cooling that occurs just south of Greenland giving it +NAO regime? Also how extensive the Pacific ridge would be do we see a scenario of ridging along the west coast or is it more confined to the Aleutians? We definitely do not want ridging along the coast and a +NAO that is just a death spell (11-12).

I would gladly take a 10-11 scenario of -NAO and forcing rather far west where the ridge was near the Aleutians.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I could agree with that intensity may not be the issue. It may be where forcing takes place. If we look at 2010-2011 season we went to strong La Nina status but the cold pool was so far west that it actually ended up being beneficial for us in the east. That with the situation of a -NAO pattern present from the solar minimum that was around at the time. The biggest difference between than and this time frame is the east coast waters. Back then waters were warm south of Greenland and rather chilly across much of the east coast. Right now waters are just wayyy too warm across much of the eastern sea board. This promotes a ridging like pattern (normally) which in turn would drive weather systems inland with pushing of the baroclinic zone on the coast or just inland, as you stated very +NAO like regime. That would be in conjunction of - PNA pattern bearing a -PDO sticks around too.

2016-17 was an interesting one had another scenario with the coldest waters in Nino 4 similar to this year (so far) and warming as you went east. The result was a pretty barren snow land of a winter in the mid atlantic, not entirely sure about the NE though ( I would think interior did well that year with how the 500mb pattern setup). The cooling couth of Greenland seemed to help re-enforce the idea of +NAO that season.

I think the biggest concerns for the upcoming winter scenario could be how extensive those warm waters are in the east. Do they reach up to around Greenland and help promote a pseudo -NAO regime at times or do we get a cooling that occurs just south of Greenland giving it +NAO regime? Also how extensive the Pacific ridge would be do we see a scenario of ridging along the west coast or is it more confined to the Aleutians? We definitely do not want ridging along the coast and a +NAO that is just a death spell (11-12).

I would gladly take a 10-11 scenario of -NAO and forcing rather far west where the ridge was near the Aleutians.

2016-2017 was actually a decent snowfall season in SNE...not great, but not bad....near normal on average, and even better across the southern half of the region.

Yes, I pretty much agree with everything else that you have stated here...I was just speaking to the intensity of la nina. In the early going, this la nina is definitely more of a modoki with the cool anomalies focused west.

NAO should be positive.

One thing that I would like to add is that the PNA and PDO, while generally positively correlated, are not necessarily always lock-in-step....so you need to be careful about assuming a predominantly RNA pattern. Last season for instance, featured one of the most negative PDO seasons on record, yet the mean DM PNA value was only very slightly negative. The pattern was actually mainly PNA after the record RNA month of December. Its also about where you live...here in New England, we do absolutely great with decidedly negative EPO and variable PNA...its further to the south that needs the decidedly +PNA.

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2016-2017 was actually a decent snowfall season in SNE...not great, but not bad....near normal on average, and even better across the southern half of the region.

Yes, I pretty much agree with everything else that you have stated here...I was just speaking to the intensity of la nina. In the early going, this la nina is definitely more of a modoki with the cool anomalies focused west.

NAO should be positive.

One thing that I would like to add is that the PNA and PDO, while generally positively correlated, are not necessarily always lock-in-step....so you need to be careful about assuming a predominantly RNA pattern. Last season for instance, featured one of the most negative PDO seasons on record, yet the mean DM PNA value was only very slightly negative. The pattern was actually mainly PNA after the record RNA month of December. Its also about where you live...here in New England, we do absolutely great with decidedly negative EPO and variable PNA...its further to the south that needs the decidedly +PNA.

This is a fair point they don't always need to correlate. PDO tends to produce a more -PNA regime but not always. I do remember seeing the record -PDO last year while I believe we had a -EPO/+PNA (went to neutral as we pushed into Decemeber) regime at the same time, was pretty impressive to see. Yea we definitely need a +PNA for our classic storms but we can manage pretty well with a -PNA sometimes usually our fun anafront situations. Nothing like going from 50's-60's to heavy wet snow in 24 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is a fair point they don't always need to correlate. PDO tends to produce a more -PNA regime but not always. I do remember seeing the record -PDO last year while I believe we had a -EPO/+PNA (went to neutral as we pushed into Decemeber) regime at the same time, was pretty impressive to see. Yea we definitely need a +PNA for our classic storms but we can manage pretty well with a -PNA sometimes usually our fun anafront situations. Nothing like going from 50's-60's to heavy wet snow in 24 hours.

The fact that la nina was so east-based last season is the only thing that saved us from what would have otherwise been a complete bloodbath.

[raindancewx]

I tested objective matching highs to 2022 for 42 cities in the US for each month from January to July. Most-frequent best matches included 2020, 2011, 2000, 1959 among the non-El Ninos. In a lot of ways, 1959 is like a blend of 2020 and 2013 so it's interesting to see that year pop up. Both 1959 / 2020 are very hot Decembers nationally, with -QBO early year, and a flip to +QBO in July, as we just observed. The QBO in 1959 was around -20 like this year in January.

For Nino 3.4, the objective best match year to date is 1985 for Jan-Jul. A lot of years that were close early have faded lately.

Nino 3.4, in a historical sense still isn't super cold - it's ~18th coldest since 1950. So if La Nina is the coldest 30%, July was in the coldest 25th%. The years within 0.2C of Nino 3.4 in July average ~25.9C in winter. (-0.6C for my purposes in winter, -0.8C against the baseline CPC uses).

Composite for La Nina with no Atlantic hurricanes by August 6th is about 10 years since 1930 if I remember correctly. It's a mild NW / hot SE look that trends both more extreme the later you get without a hurricane. If you make it to 9/1 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, the only matching La Ninas are 1984 and 1988.

A lot of big, late-blooming hurricane seasons in La Nina start by 8/16 - so if we make it to 8/16 without a hurricane, that's a pretty good sign for a cold Northwest winter. The warm AMO / inactive La Nina hurricane seasons (<120 ACE) are something like 1938, 1942, 1954, 2000, 2007 - not super common.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I continue to prove my point about the N. Hemisphere complete disconnect from ENSO/La Nina. This is +AAM, not what is likely in Moderate-Strong ENSO.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, despite +10F -PNA SSTs, there has been no real -PNA since Dec 2021, how interesting is that!

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I tested objective matching highs to 2022 for 42 cities in the US for each month from January to July. Most-frequent best matches included 2020, 2011, 2000, 1959 among the non-El Ninos. In a lot of ways, 1959 is like a blend of 2020 and 2013 so it's interesting to see that year pop up. Both 1959 / 2020 are very hot Decembers nationally, with -QBO early year, and a flip to +QBO in July, as we just observed. The QBO in 1959 was around -20 like this year in January.

For Nino 3.4, the objective best match year to date is 1985 for Jan-Jul. A lot of years that were close early have faded lately.

Nino 3.4, in a historical sense still isn't super cold - it's ~18th coldest since 1950. So if La Nina is the coldest 30%, July was in the coldest 25th%. The years within 0.2C of Nino 3.4 in July average ~25.9C in winter. (-0.6C for my purposes in winter, -0.8C against the baseline CPC uses).

Composite for La Nina with no Atlantic hurricanes by August 6th is about 10 years since 1930 if I remember correctly. It's a mild NW / hot SE look that trends both more extreme the later you get without a hurricane. If you make it to 9/1 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, the only matching La Ninas are 1984 and 1988.

A lot of big, late-blooming hurricane seasons in La Nina start by 8/16 - so if we make it to 8/16 without a hurricane, that's a pretty good sign for a cold Northwest winter. The warm AMO / inactive La Nina hurricane seasons (<120 ACE) are something like 1938, 1942, 1954, 2000, 2007 - not super common.

Interestingly enough, 1938 and 1954 represent the last two major hurricane strikes in New England.

[StormchaserChuck!]

No signs of a real -PNA coming.. we are probably going to fight it through Dec 2022_+PNA probably. Then -PNA recycle early Jan-Feb 2023, probably correlating with ENSO.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Look at my point though

[StormchaserChuck!]

Only glimpse of La Nina pattern since March-April

[raindancewx]

We just clinched a wet monsoon in Albuquerque, with 6+ weeks to spare in the season. Now the 6th wettest 6/15-8/9 in the past 100 years locally. Just had ~an inch of rain in an hour officially - equivalent of 1/9th of our annual precipitation in an hour.

August tends to be wetter than July locally in high solar years, even though the months average the same amount of rain long-term. It's interesting to see that play out so well this year. 1996 remains an interesting comparison locally, especially since it transitioned to a dead La Nina quite quickly as the Jamstec and CFS show.

1996

0.17

0.19

0.02

0.00

0.02

2.86

1.03

1.54

1.45

1.52

0.95

0.00

9.75

2022

0.03

0.27

0.55

0.00

0.00

2.38

1.01

1.01+

tbd

tbd

tbd

tbd

4.29

I'm still expecting a pretty healthy La Nina peak in Oct-Nov, and then a pretty rapid decline through February. Those tend to be good years in the Southwest because the La Nina, while present is warming throughout winter like a developing El Nino. 2020-21 featured that, with a cold December, a lot of snow, and then a pretty cold Oct/Feb too. August also looks like it is breaking away from 2011 as a good match to US weather as I've expected, but it is fairly similar already to August 2020 for temperatures.

July PDO also came in at -2.86 - extremely low via Nate Mantua to my email. Super -PDO is a weak warm signal for the South. I suspect it will actually be very cold where I am for at least a week in December, but we'll see. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

^ you predicted the wetter than average, monsoon season, I remember, good call. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Still no signs of La Nina pattern at Day 15. Only -PNA that has occurred since April was under a 90N PV spinning for 10 days then dropping south (somewhat fake-PNA)

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Still no signs of La Nina pattern at Day 15. Only -PNA that has occurred since April was under a 90N PV spinning for 10 days then dropping south (somewhat fake-PNA)

 And this is despite the 90/30 day SOI of +13/+10. a weak La Nina Nino 3.4 SSTA, and a recently cooled OHC to below normal. OTOH, the Atlantic tropics remain quiet for now....something more akin to El Nino though things can change there in a hurry as it is still early. The climo based main season doesn't even start til near August 20th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some conclusions can already be drawn about this la nina event from its relationship, or lack there of, with the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Don't expect either to last particularly long this winter.

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/08/using-indian-ocean-as-predictor-of-enso.html

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 And this is despite the 90/30 day SOI of +13/+10. a weak La Nina Nino 3.4 SSTA, and a recently cooled OHC to below normal. OTOH, the Atlantic tropics remain quiet for now....something more akin to El Nino though things can change there in a hurry as it is still early. The climo based main season doesn't even start til near August 20th.

Could be related to my last post, though the MEI is still raging....

[raindancewx]

The "Don Sutherland" curse as I like to call it. Yes, it's 1-2 degrees above average this Summer in the Southwest. But isn't Death Valley getting 75% of its rain in a year in three hours a lot more interesting?

Hurricane season remains pretty dead in the Atlantic. Actually, the Northwest Pacific is remarkably dead too. I've not looked in detail, but I suspect the dead NW Pacific is correlated to strong WPO years, I vaguely remember it being very dead in 2020 too. The low-ACE Atlantic years seem to be like a SE-ward shift of the +WPO/+AO/+NAO/+PNA look you can occasionally get with cold ENSO winters.

[WestMichigan]

Maybe the 1 in 1000 year event isn't what they thought it was?

[raindancewx]

Still a long way to go, but I think it's increasingly probable that this winter will have an unusual temperature layout compared to most winters in the past 20 years. A lot of the years I like have most of the US "weakly" cold, but with the Northeast relatively warmer than the Southeast (i.e. near-average to cold SE US, warm-average NE US). For the cold US outside the NE look to win out, I do think the Atlantic needs to remain under 100-120 ACE for the year. But right now, that's looking fairly likely (mean ACE for no hurricanes by 8/16 is either 93 or 113 when I looked).

Sort of an anti-2004 look, which is a consider a strong Anti-Log (high ACE in an El Nino following an ~El Nino, with 2002-2004 as a very wet period in the SW US and high solar activity, with 2020-2022 very dry and low solar, etc).

[StormchaserChuck!]

mm... not long until everything catches up. 

 

[raindancewx]

This is my little visual for the low ACE / late or no-hurricane La Ninas.

You can see that the recent La Ninas with no hurricane yet have behave similarly in August. Look at the 1983, 1984, 2011 blend. The 1983/1984/2011 blend is 76 ACE.

Would be a pretty interesting winter - although I doubt the blend will hold. It is a much more widespread wet winter than last year, with the NE generally warm, which are both things I expect.