2021-2022 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

Seem to be reloading

[StormchaserChuck!]

[raindancewx]

One reason I'm expecting a fairly rapid weakening in any cold event this winter is the forecast change in the Indian Ocean Dipole. The Aussies have it quite intensely negative in Fall, before a rapid reversion toward normal conditions.

Some of the years I like for winter do have the -IOD.  In some ways, 2016-17 is actually emerging as a good match, even though it has some obvious dissimilarities too. If the hurricane season were to remain quiet by ACE in the Atlantic, that'd be a big hint. There just aren't many years recently with Cold ENSO / Low ACE. It's like, 2013, 2007, 2000, 1988 in my lifetime. Tentatively looking at 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2020 among recent years for winter. It is not super uncommon for Texas to get nuked with severely cold February cold snaps two years in a row. It is basically unheard of three times in a row though. Just from that, the winter should evolve pretty differently than recently.

[StormchaserChuck!]

^yeah, I'm wondering if that goes right to December this year

[StormchaserChuck!]

Here we go.. back to La Nina. 

west is staying warm though, like the idea of a warm push in the Spring. 

Last year the subsurface warmed in November. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

All of these connections to Dec 2010, and that was about the same point in the last ascending solar cycle 2011-2012. hmm, a little too coincidental. 

[raindancewx]

July has been impressively different from last year so far. Good sign for December here. July & December have decent long-term correlations in some parts of the US. Coldest where it was hottest last year for July & December, and vice versa. Core heat / cold a battle between TX & Montana in both months. The coolness West month to date / intense heat Plains (especially in the past week) is vaguely reminiscent of a major +WPO look in Fall or late-winter/Spring. Last year, we had a -WPO winter for the first time in a while. I suspect we're getting a hint right about now. Dirty little secret for you global warming obsessives - these big Summer heat waves are way more common on the Western portions of the continents at high latitudes because of their proximity to deserts and cold ocean currents. An easy way to analog for the winter is just to look up major heat waves in Western Europe and Western Northern America by timing and then roll them forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Colder December would also fit with the theme of a more central based cold ENSO relative to last year.

[raindancewx]

Locally, La Nina winter highs tend to mimic a blend of heat timing (first 90F high), ACE in the Atlantic, and solar activity. Right now, ACE is low, with no imminent spike in activity. Solar is high. Heat came early May.

These are the early heat La Nina winters - i.e. hit 90F before May 15th. You can see solar activity is similar to where we should end up for the July-June annualized number - around 80-120 if I had to guess. ACE is currently well below average, but could change. 

Last year was a warm winter, with no 90 degree heat until day 36 (June 5th) - quite late historically. The trend line for the heat-timing formula implied 52.0F for last winter, it was 51.4F - damn close for a reading I can pull 6 months ahead of winter. Hit 90 on May 7th this year, like in 2020.

ACE index was 145.7 last year and implied a high of 51.07F - actual was 51.4F. Last year had four tropical storms and a July hurricane by this point, so we are tracking well below last year. ACE was 12.8 on 7/24.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210724155022/http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[raindancewx]

Oh and for what it's worth...the blend of the closest years already seems to have some skill, assuming we stay in La Nina for winter.

          1st 90F                          Sunspots July-June Average           ACE for Atlantic Hurricane Season

1954    9                                           19.2                                                    104.4

1974    9                                           34.6                                                      68.4

2000  10 (x2)                                 163.4                                                     119.1

Blend  5/9 or 5/10                          95.15                                                     102.75

2022    5/7                                      100(est)                                                 115(est)

 

I've mentioned that there is a signal for a wet Oct-Dec in the West before a dry winter - October is very wet in the West in this particular blend. Actually a pretty severe Oct-Dec in the Southwest, with lots of cold and moisture. My inputs are not likely to be completely correct for solar/ace, so I'm sure I'll change the blending. I doubt it will be nearly as cold nationally in November-December. Almost all years (11/12) are cold or average winters for the SW with the very early heat though, so I am relatively confident in that aspect of it. It's sort of a super +WPO look outside December/March. So we'd likely have a lot of western storminess in brief windows that would correspond to major eastern "heat waves" to offset strong cold shots. You'd probably see one to two major Nor'easters when the Northern Hemisphere upper level patterns get screwed up by the WPO flipping phases and pushing everything out of the way downstream. 

Low Ace is also negatively correlated to high-snowfall totals in the Northeast in La Ninas - so I get 70-90% of average snows for Boston, NYC, Philly, falling to 40-80% by DC and Virginia, with that 1954-55, 1974-75, 2000-01 (x2) blend, despite the cold early. The main issue with the cold December in this blend is how much warmer the IOD zone, and that's the December killer for the East since it creates pseudo MJO phase five conditions. Suspect the AMO/PDO looks are wrong too, but haven't checked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2000-2001 is pretty deceiving because while it was not particularly snowy along the northeast coast, just inland it was an absolutely insane season...talking 4-5' March depths in the Monadnocks of SW NH. Caveat being I don't think the ACE will end up as high as it did that year...

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, it's tricky though that we don't go warm 3/3 years in a La Nina cycle. The third winter is usually cold, or 1 of the 3 in there are cold. Kind of a weird stat but I feel that it has weight. The strong +QBO with now neutral N. Atlantic SSTs, and possibly low ACE, or now, is not going to support anything but neutral or +NAO. I do wonder if +NAO goes with -EPO though this Winter (-PNA too, strong, if la nina- been feeling the ridge should be building up into Alaska more now, but not really an EPO index thing- we do have the NAO-reverse thing happening(Pacific)). Pretty good poster 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, it's tricky though that we don't go warm 3/3 years in a La Nina cycle. The third winter is usually cold, or 1 of the 3 in there are cold. Kind of a weird stat but I feel that it has weight. The strong +QBO with now neutral N. Atlantic SSTs, and possibly low ACE, or now, is not going to support anything but neutral or +NAO. I do wonder if +NAO goes with -EPO though this Winter (-PNA too, strong, if la nina- been feeling the ridge should be building up into Alaska more now, but not really an EPO index thing- we do have the NAO-reverse thing happening(Pacific)). Pretty good poster 

This is where the upside lays this year...agree. The northeast can still do very well with this combo, as evidenced by the 2013-2015 stretch.

PNA would determine whether its a taint-fest like 2018-2019, or its more of a snowier period, like 2013-2015.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't think it will be classic SE ridge/NW trough

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/25/2022 at 8:43 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't think it will be classic SE ridge/NW trough

Nor do I...was just saying that that is what will determine the ultimate tenor of the winter.

[Whineminster]

On 7/22/2022 at 8:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2000-2001 is pretty deceiving because while it was not particularly snowy along the northeast coast, just inland it was an absolutely insane season...talking 4-5' March depths in the Monadnocks of SW NH. Caveat being I don't think the ACE will end up as high as it did that year...

Yep.  People around my area say it was way more snow than 2015, up to the knickers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yep.  People around my area say it was way more snow than 2015, up to the knickers 

Yes. 2000-2001 was more impressive for N ORH county...the pack was higher water content than 2014-2015, too.

[raindancewx]

If you use Dallas as a proxy for Texas, there are the winters that followed two extremely cold Februaries over the past 100 years, like 2021 and 2022, that were not El Nino winters / near El Ninos. I'm using 47F or colder in February for average temperature as my proxy for very cold.

1948-49, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1980-81.

1948-49 (extremely cold West winter)

1964-65 (very cold Montana, ND. Some cold New England/Rockies)

1966-67 (this is actually one of the most "normal" winters in US history - fairly near average everywhere)

1967-68 (pretty cold winter most of the US, extremely cold West look in December though like 1948-49).

1980-81 (very hot West, cold SE coast)

July is actually pretty close, especially if you add a degree or two for the age of the analogs (they are centered on 1965!). I'm actually planning to use "anti-logs" quite a bit for this year's winter forecast.

I think the low ACE + La Nina + high solar bit of it is going to hold. Not many years like that. So what would be opposite? 2004-05 and 2019-20 are El Nino after El Nino, relatively low solar, with high ACE. Arguably 1969-70 and 2003-04 are opposite too. Widespread inconsistent cold would be opposite - of the anti-logs (i.e. widespread weak cold in 2022-23). I could see Alaska getting pretty cold and then the cold draining into different areas of lower 48 over time. The anti-log look below is like a more widespread, but less intense flip of 2000-01.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

If you use Dallas as a proxy for Texas, there are the winters that followed two extremely cold Februaries over the past 100 years, like 2021 and 2022, that were not El Nino winters / near El Ninos. I'm using 47F or colder in February for average temperature as my proxy for very cold.

1948-49, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1980-81.

1948-49 (extremely cold West winter)

1964-65 (very cold Montana, ND. Some cold New England/Rockies)

1966-67 (this is actually one of the most "normal" winters in US history - fairly near average everywhere)

1967-68 (pretty cold winter most of the US, extremely cold West look in December though like 1948-49).

1980-81 (very hot West, cold SE coast)

July is actually pretty close, especially if you add a degree or two for the age of the analogs (they are centered on 1965!). I'm actually planning to use "anti-logs" quite a bit for this year's winter forecast.

I think the low ACE + La Nina + high solar bit of it is going to hold. Not many years like that. So what would be opposite? 2004-05 and 2019-20 are El Nino after El Nino, relatively low solar, with high ACE. Arguably 1969-70 and 2003-04 are opposite too. Widespread inconsistent cold would be opposite - of the anti-logs (i.e. widespread weak cold in 2022-23). I could see Alaska getting pretty cold and then the cold draining into different areas of lower 48 over time. The anti-log look below is like a more widespread, but less intense flip of 2000-01.

When you state anti logs this means (last image as an example) the country as a whole would be slightly cooler than average for DJF with an emphasis of northern rockies and front range to be cooler than the rest? Just trying to clarify.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

If you use Dallas as a proxy for Texas, there are the winters that followed two extremely cold Februaries over the past 100 years, like 2021 and 2022, that were not El Nino winters / near El Ninos. I'm using 47F or colder in February for average temperature as my proxy for very cold.

1948-49, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1980-81.

1948-49 (extremely cold West winter)

1964-65 (very cold Montana, ND. Some cold New England/Rockies)

1966-67 (this is actually one of the most "normal" winters in US history - fairly near average everywhere)

1967-68 (pretty cold winter most of the US, extremely cold West look in December though like 1948-49).

1980-81 (very hot West, cold SE coast)

July is actually pretty close, especially if you add a degree or two for the age of the analogs (they are centered on 1965!). I'm actually planning to use "anti-logs" quite a bit for this year's winter forecast.

I think the low ACE + La Nina + high solar bit of it is going to hold. Not many years like that. So what would be opposite? 2004-05 and 2019-20 are El Nino after El Nino, relatively low solar, with high ACE. Arguably 1969-70 and 2003-04 are opposite too. Widespread inconsistent cold would be opposite - of the anti-logs (i.e. widespread weak cold in 2022-23). I could see Alaska getting pretty cold and then the cold draining into different areas of lower 48 over time. The anti-log look below is like a more widespread, but less intense flip of 2000-01.

1966-1967 actually featured well above average snows in my neck of the woods, but its negated by the very paltry 1980-1981 season.

2003-2004 was warm neutral, so 2004-2005 was not technically a double dip el nino....FWIW.

[StruThiO]

The record-strong easterly wind stress has now resulted in the incredible initiation of an extremely potent upwelling Kelvin wave.

[raindancewx]

The anti-log full-on opposite is weak warmth, so it would support weak cold.

That anti-log match won't work if the ACE picks up though to 140, 180, 220 or something by November. My point was it is rare to have El Ninos with very active hurricane seasons, and to have La Ninas with very inactive hurricane seasons. So you can flesh out the expectations by not only looking at rare similar years but rare opposite years.

This is the updated ACE v. Philly snow thing for La Ninas through last year by the way - it still works about as well as it did half a decade ago when I noticed it. Philly doesn't get good snow snow years (call good snow +20%, or 27"+) in La Ninas without 150-160 ACE. Same goes for Baltimore/DC. 

ACE is also a strong indicator for cold snaps in the Southwest, and how cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan is out here in La Nina. So I do watch it pretty closely. Every 11 points of ACE is worth about an inch of snow for Philly on average. For Albuquerque, each full day of a major Atlantic hurricane correlates to losing 0.05 inches of precipitation for Dec-Feb. Last year had 145.7 ACE with a high of 50.4 in mid-Dec to mid-Jan which is very near the trend on the second image.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The anti-log full-on opposite is weak warmth, so it would support weak cold.

That anti-log match won't work if the ACE picks up though to 140, 180, 220 or something by November. My point was it is rare to have El Ninos with very active hurricane seasons, and to have La Ninas with very inactive hurricane seasons. So you can flesh out the expectations by not only looking at rare similar years but rare opposite years.

This is the updated ACE v. Philly snow thing for La Ninas through last year by the way - it still works about as well as it did half a decade ago when I noticed it. Philly doesn't get good snow snow years (call good snow +20%, or 27"+) in La Ninas without 150-160 ACE. Same goes for Baltimore/DC. 

ACE is also a strong indicator for cold snaps in the Southwest, and how cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan is out here in La Nina. So I do watch it pretty closely. Every 11 points of ACE is worth about an inch of snow for Philly on average. For Albuquerque, each full day of a major Atlantic hurricane correlates to losing 0.05 inches of precipitation for Dec-Feb. Last year had 145.7 ACE with a high of 50.4 in mid-Dec to mid-Jan which is very near the trend on the second image.

Do you feel that there are some physical processes at play with respect to the linkage between the prior warm season's ACE and the overall tenor the following winter? I suspect that there are, but its difficult to postulate exactly what said phenomena are. My crude guess has to do with the ocean currents rolling forward into a certain set of ocean-atmosphere coupling(s) across the hemisphere.

[StruThiO]

Don't really have words for what we are witnessing.. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before..

[StruThiO]

Trades are only going to continue to rip as the MJO circles back to p4/5..

[raindancewx]

The -/+/- subsurface for 100-180W, in May/Jun/Jul is not really common. But these look like matches for it.

1996 is the only good match.

1995, 2000, 2005, 2007 are kind of close.

Year    May     June    July

1995:  -0.44 / -0.14 / -0.44

1996:   -0.16 / +0.17 / -0.18

2000:  -0.18 / +0.08 / +0.03

2005:  +0.00 / +0.11 / -0.20

2007:   -0.58 / -0.18 / -0.48

2022:   -0.10 / +0.31 / -0.30?

 

It's funny, but 1990 is an almost perfect opposite year to May-July 2022:  +0.05 / -0.30 / +0.27

1990 is basically the opposite of July. We'll see it that holds for August, I doubt it. Core heat / core cold for TX. We're actually going to lose 2000 as even a decent match for a little while. Subsurface is already way colder than it was in 2000 in July-August. The Fall pattern of 2000 is pretty interesting, but the subsurface development is already too different for that kind of Oct-Nov period.

[raindancewx]

Canadian has a weaker, more basin La Nina for winter than last month. Pretty cold in the tropics globally too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Happens every season....always a few posters who get carried away with ENSO and include hyper-verbiage in every post referencing anything associated with it...when the dust settles, any moderate peak will be early on and it will be weak for the vast majority of boreal winter 2022-2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That Canadian graphic screams +NAO to me...no shock there.

[so_whats_happening]

The waters off the east coast and up to nova scotia have just been so flippin warm over the past couple years it really is getting difficult to get true miller A patterns setup feel like the baroclinic zone has just been setting up over the coastal plain rather than offshore. Im not liking how far west based the Nina is, if I remember correctly 2011 was the last west based Nina and winter was well... Feel the eerie 2011 vibes right now with SST configuration in the tropical pacific. See how it plays out.