2021-2022 ENSO

[raindancewx]

The intense western cold and eastern cold are both thinning, but the map is definitely shifting to warmth pretty rapidly from where it was in February.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, I don't know why IRI is calling for  -0.2/3 warm peak. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

NOI blows up a little here (NPH)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

-NOI In April is a big deal for El Nino Apr-Jun, I think. 

[raindancewx]

We haven't really had a wet month here since June 2020, so I'll buy more into El Nino conditions when we start seeing consistent wetter than average months across the Southwest. It is weird to say that though, since places like Santa Fe will end up with snow every month from September-March, and probably April too this cold season.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, we are in a pretty large -PNA/La Nina cycle though, the 2015s+ had a big +NOI off the West coast. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3

Will be curious to see how various features evolve later in the year. PDO is still pretty negative even as the subsurface warms. The pattern for fall-spring will probably remain to some extent in Summer nationally. Predominantly warm with some brief periods of severe cold. That volcanic eruption in the Caribbean is a bit of a wild card, it's listed as a VEI 4 eruption on Wikipedia and could maybe change some forcing in the tropical Atlantic or even the far eastern tropical Pacific.

[raindancewx]

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
13 Apr 2021	1009.79	1010.95	-25.60	0.83	5.90
12 Apr 2021	1011.26	1010.15	-9.23	1.60	6.45
11 Apr 2021	1012.90	1009.25	9.08	1.52	6.74

That's trouble.

[raindancewx]

January   -0.16

February -0.54

March     -1.17

 

New PDO value from Nate Mantua showed a big -PDO month.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

The age of El Nino is over. 

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1

Pretty fast warm up in Nino 4 since the lowest reading in February.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Totally El Nino in Pacific +Day 8.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1

It's dead. Warm subsurface still too.

[raindancewx]

Pattern nationally still isn't really deviating from some of the cold-ENSO years just yet. I've liked 2007-08 for a while now. If you lag it by 0-2 weeks each month, it's been a good match for ages.

[raindancewx]

Euro had the right idea with the La Nina dying (at least until Fall) after March. The 120-170W, 5S-5N zone is not really cold enough (blue) to be a La Nina anymore.

[StormchaserChuck!]

You can see the transition in the first post on this page. Like always, the Hemisphere will transition too. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I like it (+PNA)

[etudiant]

Would someone please post a link to site where this spaghetti chart is explained?

As is, it is possibly casting pearls before swine. I at least will admit that I'm baffled, but where can I get less so?
 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, they did spaghetti in 2004 but it was an El Nino pattern. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't know why the peark is casting swine but in jan 2022 we will know if it's still El Nino or going into La Nina. 

[etudiant]

35 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't know why the peark is casting swine but in jan 2022 we will know if it's still El Nino or going into La Nina. 

Maybe a link to a site that explains these charts, pretty please?

[raindancewx]

Summer will be pretty telling for any ENSO transition. Years that moved from La Nina in winter to El Nino the next winter tend to have pretty standard Summer evolution, so should be pretty clear in the next 6-8 weeks what will happen.

If you run correlations for what happens after a (net) -NAO winter for the Summer, there is a tendency for heat/high pressure stronger than usual over Texas. The moisture from the Gulf literally rolls up the Rio Grande Valley clockwise, which is consistent with La Nina to El Nino years favoring good monsoon patterns in the Southwest. 

We're about due for a cold(er) August out here after two years of near-record warmth in that month. That's often tied to intense late Summer heat in the East. The actual timing of an El Nino onset at the surface is pretty important if it does develop. There is usually some kind of dramatic flip. With the current dying La Nina, the big intense storms in the West in Sept/Oct, and then the huge WPO flip in the Fall were pretty telling as the La Nina went from peaking early (Halloween-ish) to stagnating/slowly weakening.

[raindancewx]

The 5/1 Canadian Model run has warmer conditions in the short term but still reverts to a La Nina in late Summer-Spring. If anything, the trend is notably colder in the long term.

[raindancewx]

Subsurface value for 100-180W came in at +0.56. Up from -0.82 in February.

The closest subsurface match transition is 2009 for February-April. 2006, 2011, 2012, 1989, 2001 are kind of close too, and 2018 is the most recent year with any similarity

                February       March      April

2006:        -0.92            -0.29         +0.42

2009:        -0.50            +0.08       +0.65

2011:        -0.22            +0.50       +0.58

Blend:       -0.55           +0.10        +0.55

2021:        -0.82            +0.27       +0.56

Not really any big La Ninas that have behaved similarly. Here is a list of years at or above +0.5 in April for 1979-2020:

1980, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1997, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018. Of the 13 years, 7 are El Ninos next winter. Only 2011 is a La Nina.

From that list, 2009, 2011, 2018 followed La Nina winters, but 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1997, 2014 also followed cold-ENSO winters.

 

[raindancewx]

MJO entering phase one about 5/1:

2017,  2016, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2005, 1995, 1990, 1981.

Euro shows Nino 3.4 cooling off a lot in April while the weeklies showed slow warming. Such is the fun of using different baselines (1991-2020 for the weeklies, 1981-2010 for the Euro) and different datasets (OISST and ERSST).

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1

[CheeselandSkies]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

MJO entering phase one about 5/1:

2017,  2016, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2005, 1995, 1990, 1981.

 

Well THAT brings clarity for the quality of the rest of chase season.

[raindancewx]

CPC monthly data for April came in much colder than the weeklies.

2021   2   25.76   26.76   -1.00
2021   3   26.50   27.29   -0.80
2021   4   27.08   27.83   -0.75

Monthly data is -0.75C  v. 1991-2020, but only -0.50 or so v. 1951-2010 which I find is a better ENSO indicator. The weekly data implied 27.5C for April.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1
 28APR2021     24.0-1.0     26.9-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.0

 

[griteater]

On 4/29/2021 at 4:20 PM, etudiant said:

Would someone please post a link to site where this spaghetti chart is explained?

As is, it is possibly casting pearls before swine. I at least will admit that I'm baffled, but where can I get less so?

Image on left is the GFS Ensemble Mean (500mb Height Anomalies) which is the average of all GFS Ensemble Members (total of 21 members on these images). 

In the image on the right (Spaghetti Chart), each of the 21 ensemble members is represented by a single line.  Looking at the red lines (21 total red lines), this is the forecasted 576 dm height line for each ensemble member, with the white line being the forecasted 576 dm height line from the operational model run of the GFS (green lines are each ensemble member for the forecasted 552 dm height line / white line is the GFS operational model run for the forecasted 552 dm height line).

Two ways these can be used with forecasting: 1) How does the GFS Operational run compare with the ensemble members?  In the black box that I added in the image off the Mid-Atlantic coast, you can see here that the GFS Operational model run (white line) is a southern outlier compared to the other ensemble members which aren't as deep (aren't as far south) with the trough that digs thru PA and off the Mid-Atlantic coast...and 2) How much uncertainty exists among the ensemble members?  In the black circles that I added in the image along / off the west coast, you can see that the ensemble members along the California coast (black circle) show more uncertainty with more diverging solutions compared to the location midway between Hawaii and Alaska (black circle) where the ensemble members are more tightly packed.

The term "Spaghetti" is used because as you go out in time with the model run, the ensemble member lines jumble all together as model uncertainty increases greatly.

The psu ewall site from which these images are taken could use a facelift and modernization, but it has some excellent maps (4 panel / ensemble charts like these) and was ahead of its time when it first came out with its model images

 

 

[raindancewx]

Euro is pretty neutral, but the verification almost always shows up on the high or low side of the plume.

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3
 14APR2021     24.7-0.9     26.9-0.7     27.5-0.4     28.5-0.1
 21APR2021     24.6-0.8     27.1-0.4     27.6-0.3     28.6-0.1
 28APR2021     24.0-1.0     26.9-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.0
 05MAY2021     24.1-0.7     26.8-0.5     27.5-0.4     28.7-0.2

Subsurface continues to rapidly warm. We're on month two now for a much warmer subsurface y/y.

[StormchaserChuck!]

+3 hitting the central subsurface, it's going to be a Moderate El Nino. :)