StormchaserChuck! Posted April 20, 2022 Author Share Posted April 20, 2022 yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 20, 2022 Author Share Posted April 20, 2022 10/11 recent Winter's After this (300dm, #2 since 1948 is 230dm) Beaten this Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 20, 2022 Author Share Posted April 20, 2022 NOI is really only thing that matters in ENSO /evenout after Dec 2010,2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 20, 2022 Author Share Posted April 20, 2022 I bet we get a nice subsurface cold push here ^+4c appearing, I think we will go +ENSO later, central/eastern cold not as cold today, whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 21, 2022 Author Share Posted April 21, 2022 ^To reiterate my point further, Dec 2010 (300dm vs #2 230dm -PNA) was followed by 10/11 years of -PNA or +NOI. THIS December beat it by 30dm- 330dm, 300dm, 230dm. I think we will see something like 3/8 next Winter's of +PNA, or even 5/10 +PNA, but there will be 5/8 +super-PNA, weighing us to a +anomaly -PNA vs globe. -PNA/+PNA skew difference, could even, even out over 10-15+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 The last two winters were both pretty cold in Nino 4 (DJF). Here are some relatively similar three year periods. Before I was on any of these forums I vaguely remember using 1957-58 and 1985-86 in a blend as an estimate for 2014-15, for the rapid warming of Nino 4 in 2014-15 after two colder Nino 4 years in 2013-14 and 2012-13. DJF 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23: 27.32C / 27.85C DJF 1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86: 27.56C / 27.59C / 28.11C DJF 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58: 27.05C / 27.77C / 29.02C DJF 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10: 26.97C / 27.48C / 29.41C 1985-86 (x2), 1957-58 (x2), 2009-10 is a pretty interesting blend to say the least. Nino 4 in the blend: 27.24C / 27.64C / 28.73C as the estimate for 2022-23. Personally expecting hermaphrodite ENSO conditions in the July-June year. I don't mean Neutral - I think we'll switch phases in the year, rather than simply moving half a step from Neutral in Summer to El Nino or La Nina in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 14 hours ago, raindancewx said: The last two winters were both pretty cold in Nino 4 (DJF). Here are some relatively similar three year periods. Before I was on any of these forums I vaguely remember using 1957-58 and 1985-86 in a blend as an estimate for 2014-15, for the rapid warming of Nino 4 in 2014-15 after two colder Nino 4 years in 2013-14 and 2012-13. DJF 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23: 27.32C / 27.85C DJF 1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86: 27.56C / 27.59C / 28.11C DJF 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58: 27.05C / 27.77C / 29.02C DJF 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10: 26.97C / 27.48C / 29.41C 1985-86 (x2), 1957-58 (x2), 2009-10 is a pretty interesting blend to say the least. Nino 4 in the blend: 27.24C / 27.64C / 28.73C as the estimate for 2022-23. Personally expecting hermaphrodite ENSO conditions in the July-June year. I don't mean Neutral - I think we'll switch phases in the year, rather than simply moving half a step from Neutral in Summer to El Nino or La Nina in winter. I feel like that can be very beneficial for fans of winter in the east, given that weak phases of el nino and la nina are most favorable for cold and snow, as opposed to neutral or stronger ENSO events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 So sick of seeing 60-100 mph wind gusts this Spring. Driving is actually a bit terrifying with the dust. But of course parts of the state in the SE haven't had rain this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 23, 2022 Author Share Posted April 23, 2022 Did I dance in the rain before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 El Nino tendency kind of taking over here recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 April 2018 & April 2022 are actually very similar for US temperature patterns spatially if you look. Gives me some home for a weak El Nino later this year. My raw analog blend for winter from last Fall actually held up pretty well in April - mostly with the double weighted 2017-18 in there. CFS has another hot/dry month for May down here, and then I suspect the Summer won't be real hot in the Southwest. Nov-Apr here was essentially a dulled 2017-18 - very dry, generally warm, but with a major break in February-March to cold/wet. But the break in the warmth/dryness in Feb-Mar was much more intense than 2017-18. That was what I expected when I blended in years like 1974-75 and 1961-62, to enhance the wet/cold break without really diminishing the dry/warm signal in the other months. You currently have deep patches of warmth and cold below the surface - including the 6th deepest blues and reds. But the warm and cold areas are almost the exact same size at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 That 170W/-200m is +3c is significant, this El Nino tendency has been around since November. This hasn't broke though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 ^The next few La Nina's might not act like La Nina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 Pacific High pressure/-PNA/positive anomaly May12-16 Minus 1997 Minus 1982 Minus 2015 (Pac net neg 3/3) Plus 2021 Minus 2020, 2019, Plus 2016, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 We def did not get the wild March that 2018 featured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 On 4/13/2022 at 9:37 PM, raindancewx said: I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too. Same thing going on here, I really love dry weather and heat -- didn't get the heat but the 0 F dew points are nice, the strong winds not so nice. The low dewpoints are great for limiting my allergies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 On 4/30/2022 at 12:38 PM, raindancewx said: April 2018 & April 2022 are actually very similar for US temperature patterns spatially if you look. Gives me some home for a weak El Nino later this year. My raw analog blend for winter from last Fall actually held up pretty well in April - mostly with the double weighted 2017-18 in there. CFS has another hot/dry month for May down here, and then I suspect the Summer won't be real hot in the Southwest. Nov-Apr here was essentially a dulled 2017-18 - very dry, generally warm, but with a major break in February-March to cold/wet. But the break in the warmth/dryness in Feb-Mar was much more intense than 2017-18. That was what I expected when I blended in years like 1974-75 and 1961-62, to enhance the wet/cold break without really diminishing the dry/warm signal in the other months. You currently have deep patches of warmth and cold below the surface - including the 6th deepest blues and reds. But the warm and cold areas are almost the exact same size at the moment. April 2018 was much colder here with a 6" snowstorm on the 2nd, an extension of the March pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 I think that after about the 6th, we have an El Nino-like pattern setting up in the N. Pacific for 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Solar activity looks like it is going to finish above 55 sunspots for the July 2021-June 2022 year. That's a bit ahead of July 2010-June 2011. Pretty rapid changes the last few months on a y/y basis. We've finally reached a prolonged period where it is colder than last year in 120-170W, where the ENSO events are actually defined. Cooler conditions in Nino 3.4 in Feb-Apr is actually a pretty healthy cold signal in the South for June-Aug. You can see it's a good signal for me during the wet season too - nice strong signal. High solar is a weak cold signal here in August too. The coldest Feb-Apr in Nino 3.4 since 2011. Nino 3.4, Feb, Mar, Apr, FMA 1999 25.43 26.33 26.70 26.15 2000 25.21 26.30 26.95 26.15 1955 25.81 26.22 26.60 26.21 1976 25.49 26.46 26.88 26.282022 25.86 26.30 26.69 26.28 2011 25.64 26.36 27.05 26.35 1956 25.76 26.46 26.85 26.36 1968 25.68 26.33 27.10 26.37 1975 26.07 26.19 26.86 26.37 1985 26.03 26.50 26.64 26.39 2021 25.75 26.48 27.10 26.44 1967 26.11 26.50 26.74 26.45 Similar FMA Nino 3.4 (26.28C, +/-0.2C), and similar solar, low but rising: 1955, 1956, 1967, 1968, 1999, 2000, 2011. Actually a decent signal for the monsoon really, implies strong TX/Plain high pressure. Precip & Temp maps look like the correlation map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 8, 2022 Author Share Posted May 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 8, 2022 Author Share Posted May 8, 2022 Anyway, this is regarding the rotation of the Earth, we go from -AAM to +AAM real quick -AAM, 7 days, is LaNina, +AAM, 11 days, is ElNino-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 coldest anomalies of this year's la nina so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 10, 2022 Author Share Posted May 10, 2022 That's pretty cool, it's not a La Nina across the world right now. Surface will not be negative much into the Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 On 5/9/2022 at 11:41 PM, StruThiO said: coldest anomalies of this year's la nina so far Ideally, la nina will linger through the summer and reverse course into an el nino later this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 El NIno STJ really kicking in at 312hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Tonga has been confirmed as a VEI 6 eruption, largest of the current century. https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/impact-2022-tonga-eruption/ Cooling in the 20S/175W vicinity was pretty massive for SSTs in month one. If you do 5/10 minus 1/10, the effect is still there. It will be interesting to see what happens as those waters should migrate about. I was going to look to see if winds were predominantly blowing from the NW to SE in the area of the volcano, but not quite sure what level to look at for the Sulfur movement. Ash made it 58 km up into the atmosphere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 15, 2022 Author Share Posted May 15, 2022 Still pushing this thing into +ENSO territory.. the Summer cap is going to correlate with rapidly rising ENSO surface SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 Retrograding NPH ->to -PNA by June 3.. we might hold ENSO Neutral into the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 On 5/11/2022 at 10:00 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ideally, la nina will linger through the summer and reverse course into an el nino later this fall. Sure that ain't wishful thinking? Lol Wondering if we oughta just resign ourselves to nina part 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 On 5/20/2022 at 4:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Sure that ain't wishful thinking? Lol Wondering if we oughta just resign ourselves to nina part 3 Totally wishful thinking, hence "ideally"..not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now