StormchaserChuck! Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 +PNA/El Nino-transition really phased out today on models., -PDO-pattern for next 15 days. I think this will hold through the Winter, El Nino or not, and it could be something like 72-73. -PNA tendency, especially next Jan-Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 El Nino pattern broke on today's 0z, 6z models, we are in -PNA/-PDO I think until ENSO switches again(next year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Really impressive for going-into-El Nino-analog indicators.. 4-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 We've had some Modoki La Nina looks in winter as of late, but it's been a fairly rare look in the Summer. Will be curious to see if we can retain the warmth by Peru and keep the cold to the West. Summer 1986/1998/2008/2011 is kind of the right idea for what I expect for Summer SSTs. Not a super common look in the past 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 I bet some of the top La Nina analogs have this pattern 4/15-16 (-PNA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 51 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I bet some of the top La Nina analogs have this pattern 4/15-16 (-PNA) Looks -y. One thing I've learned over the past few years, La Nina alone isn't enough. Gotta stop putting off that pre-chase season work on my car. 3/5 caught me unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 Solar activity has increased quite a bit in recent months. I annualize it to July-June. Since July, the average over 40 sunspots/month. March was over 75 sunspots for the month. If we finish at 55 sunspots for July-June, it's the first year I would consider to be "not" low-solar since 2015-16, when there were 55. Since the 1700s, annualized mean is 85 sunspots/year via SILSO, but when I run statistical tests, blocking and other features are more likely to show up below 55 sunspots annually. Albuquerque had 3.7 inches of snow in March. Historically, three inches of snow, or more, in March is a ~30% occurrence in high-solar and a ~3% occurrence in low-solar (<55 sunspots annualized). So I'm inclined to think we will finish over 55 for the year. For what it's worth, the Euro thinks a third-year La Nina is horse-shit. It's probably due to be right again at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 Now we have an El Nino pattern setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 The La Nina-state is not breaking here. Subsurface: -PDO Even when the NW Pacific ridge breaks, it's -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 WPO went positive in March after a long-stretch of the negative phase. 1956, 1981, 1985 are the only -ENSO years with -WPO in Jan-Feb and then +WPO in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The increase in solar action is why the second half blocking that I anticipated never materialized IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 I still think we'll see a El Nino/solar action push, but it's relative to a dominant -PDO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 On 4/11/2022 at 9:19 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: I still think we'll see a El Nino/solar action push, but it's relative to a dominant -PDO state. Hopefully we can get a modoki of modest intensity...muster up some blocking and negative PDO is fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 14, 2022 Author Share Posted April 14, 2022 On 4/13/2022 at 10:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully we can get a modoki of modest intensity...muster up some blocking and negative PDO is fine with me. Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 On 2/19/2021 at 10:58 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: Powerful, Nina's going to even out though. El Nino push.. +3, probably +4 soon in the western subsurface. Will probably go/turn positive at the surface by late May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994. I feel like we are going strongly toward El Nino (climo stats), this is a pretty strong opposite push, --/+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994. You've got to be kidding me...so what are lookin' at? 3 dang la ninas in a row? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: You've got to be kidding me...so what are lookin' at? 3 dang la ninas in a row? Smh That's a growing possibility. It's not yet cast in stone, but the odds have increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: That's a growing possibility. It's not yet cast in stone, but the odds have increased. I mean that would be kind of anomalous, no? When's the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean that would be kind of anomalous, no? When's the last time that happened? 98-99,99-00,00-01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 I think Nino1+2 will go positive by June or July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 On 4/17/2022 at 3:32 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: El Nino push.. +3, probably +4 soon in the western subsurface. Will probably go/turn positive at the surface by late May/June. What we need is a western biased el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years. Not bad range of outcomes there....modoki el nino, or +PNA la nina..... '00-'01, or '02-'03, take your pick Either is fine with me, with a slight nod to the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What we need is a western biased el nino. Unfortunately, we have +QBO upcoming, which with a La Nina will be a disaster, but an El Nino this year in deep -QBO would have been great I think, (09-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Unfortunately, we have +QBO upcoming, which with a La Nina will be a disaster, but an El Nino this year in deep -QBO would have been great I think, (09-10) There aren't any absolutes with respect to the QBO....its just a factor. Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking. It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. How do you get a -NAO winter out of this? Dec 2021: 0.29 Jan 2022: 1.08 Feb: 1.68 March: 0.77 What am I missing? Also, you seem to be shifting the emphasis from a crap winter, to merely a positive NAO....maybe biased by your geography....but here in New England, we don't necessarily need a negative NAO in a la nina to do just fine. 1975-1976 and 2008-2009 are a couple of examples...both +QBO, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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