StormchaserChuck! Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Starting to think it would be more of a Weak event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 I had a -PNA signal in March. The same thing was November, where it was based on SSTs, and PDO stuff, roll-forward (-PNA), we know that Nov turned out like this^, but then December blasted -PNA, maybe we'll see that -PNA again in April? A -PNA April would be against a developing El Nino (subsurface warming), but based on what we saw last year it may just be a -wave in an otherwise +ENSO trend. (I think La Nina will be gone completely in 1-2 months.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 7:46 PM, raindancewx said: Subsurface data finished at -0.2 for January 2022. If you like the subsurface as the pattern indicator in real time, currently much weaker event than last year in the 100-180W zone, when the subsurface was -1.0 or so. The subsurface actually moved a tiny bit above average (warm) in the most recently weekly update from CPC. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Sunspot data has been interesting. Up to over 40 sunspots/month since July. Still trending up pretty rapidly. My winter forecast assumed there would be some kind of major cold dump into New Mexico / Texas in February. It's a bit early, but we could have a high of 28F or something - that's very cold. After today, the first week of February looks very cold with highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s, when average is about 50. Some of our mountains will get 20 inches of snow or more with the coming system. I did flag it in mid-January using the massive Rex Block by Kamchatka, but no one cares. Even mentioned it would be a cold system. The joke is the "benchmark" for the NE has a translation spot in the North Pacific at 17-21 days out, and so the big system for New England was there a few days before the setup below. My guess is that may be why we aren't going to be seeing the late season SSW and blocking that I figured we may with the cool east-based ENSO easterly QBO combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/4/2022 at 5:37 PM, GaWx said: Well, it looks like La Niña barely made it to moderate per my definition on an ONI basis with a -1.0 C despite a weekly peak of only -1.1. I was thinking a -1.2 would have been needed: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php For all practical purposes, this will go down as borderline weak/moderate La Niña. So @40/70 Benchmark nailed it. Kudos! Thanks, Larry. @StruThiOis correct, though....this event was def. much more coupled with the atmosphere than last season's event, which I was mindful of if you read my outlook. Some real mixed results for me this season...I had December/January reversed from what actually transpired, as I had the PNA being in December...oops. I don't think I am far off in the aggregate, but struggled with timing. Snowfall forecast has largely worked out in the mid atl and near the coast of SNE, but I am looking pretty bad right now across interior NE. It looks good for the big finish that I expected, but not because of a SSW....more Pacific driven. If it works out, I will definitely be transparent about that, as always. I guess if you need to make up ground late in terms of snowfall, its good to not need it to the south and near the coast, which I do not for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:39 AM, so_whats_happening said: You were much more humble before I really did enjoy reading your posts but this just doesn't help. Not sure what got to you but hopefully it doesn't keep affecting you. I have gotten like that at times....mother nature has her own way of handling that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 1:34 AM, jaxjagman said: looks more like 2017-18,this is into April but still Yes, 2017-2018 was also east-based....though this year doesn't look to have the blocky finish that that season did. It was one of my main analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 4:24 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: We'll do at best Moderate El Nino. I don't even know if it will be El Nino at all because of rising/ascending solar phase underperforming historically favors La Nina. April-May may see a blip in Nino 3,3.4 to +0.3/+0.4 something like that. If there is an El Nino wave it will happen in August.. 09-10 might be a good analog for next Winter, although it was an awkward Winter. Funny you say that...some of my early ideas have been for a potential modoki year, though I do not think that the sun is that quiet anymore. I was wondering about '02-'03. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 A La Nina next Winter would be horrible with +QBO. We could have done well(snow) with El Nino this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/16/2022 at 9:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny you say that...some of my early ideas have been for a potential modoki year, though I do not think that the sun is that quiet anymore. I was wondering about '02-'03. Yeah unfortunately we wasted our quiet sun years on a weak sauce el niño that never coupled, followed by a AO++++ of disaster the next winter...oof! But do tell about 02'-03' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah unfortunately we wasted our quiet sun years on a weak sauce el niño that never coupled, followed by a AO++++ of disaster the next winter! But do tell about 02'-03' Not much to tell....just basically thinking out loud. But it is a year I will take a look depending how things shake out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 On 2/16/2022 at 9:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny you say that...some of my early ideas have been for a potential modoki year, though I do not think that the sun is that quiet anymore. I was wondering about '02-'03. I would love a hot and dry summer like that followed by a snowy winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 On 2/16/2022 at 9:50 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: A La Nina next Winter would be horrible with +QBO. We could have done well(snow) with El Nino this Winter. how do you stop a multiyear la nina? talking about realistic climate modification to regulate climate patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 On 2/16/2022 at 8:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, 2017-2018 was also east-based....though this year doesn't look to have the blocky finish that that season did. It was one of my main analogs. no SSW but might have a March more like 2015, although not as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 On 2/16/2022 at 8:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, Larry. @StruThiOis correct, though....this event was def. much more coupled with the atmosphere than last season's event, which I was mindful of if you read my outlook. Some real mixed results for me this season...I had December/January reversed from what actually transpired, as I had the PNA being in December...oops. I don't think I am far off in the aggregate, but struggled with timing. Snowfall forecast has largely worked out in the mid atl and near the coast of SNE, but I am looking pretty bad right now across interior NE. It looks good for the big finish that I expected, but not because of a SSW....more Pacific driven. If it works out, I will definitely be transparent about that, as always. I guess if you need to make up ground late in terms of snowfall, its good to not need it to the south and near the coast, which I do not for the most part. there's another interesting side issue here....if we have a developing el nino for next winter doesn't that enhance the risk for a developing late season snowstorm a la April 1982 and 1997? It would have to be a big el nino to increase that risk though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: no SSW but might have a March more like 2015, although not as cold? Hopefully stormier in CNE, as it was pretty dry north of the pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 On 2/18/2022 at 12:18 AM, LibertyBell said: how do you stop a multiyear la nina? talking about realistic climate modification to regulate climate patterns. We've basically been in a multi-year La Nina since 2007-8. I don't know, stop effecting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 On 2/18/2022 at 12:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully stormier in CNE, as it was pretty dry north of the pike. Might be getting what you want as soon as next Friday, Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Continue to think next Jan-Feb have -PNA tendency.. if we do that in a +/- wave with El Nino, I don't know, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Rumours of the La Nina's demise were greatly exaggerated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 6 hours ago, andyhb said: Rumours of the La Nina's demise were greatly exaggerated. Dang...we gonna be lookin' at a 3rd la nina? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 This past winter was very cold in some of the ENSO regions, just not the regions CPC uses to determine strength. Almost a perfect blend of 2017-18 and 1967-18 though across the four zones. I had mentioned both of those years quite a bit in my outlook. A lot of recent actual weather has looked like a blend of those years too. Dec-Feb Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 1967-68 22.87C 24.36C 25.77C 27.91C 2017-18 23.31C 24.66C 25.72C 27.92C Blend 23.09C 24.51C 25.75C 27.92C 2021-22 23.04C 24.50C 25.66C 27.85C That Nino 1.2 temperature is second coldest for winter since 1950-51. It's remarkable how little headway it made to the West. That's the main reason I've not been impressed with this event. There are a lot of years where the coldest waters can't get past 150W, and the real powerful La Ninas can shut down the convection in Nino 4. Nino 3 was within 0.2C of 2007-08 for winter, but Nino 3.4 was 0.7C warmer. Last year was much colder in Nino 4, and somewhat colder in Nino 3.4. Those are bigger zones than the Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 combo, and since 2021 started cold, while 2020 did not, I ultimately consider the cool down/strength of 2021-22 less impressive than the prior year. You can see on Tropical Tidbits that there has been rapid warming this month in Nino 1.2 and Nino 3, as the warmth below the surface in February surfaces. We'll see how things go, but there isn't a clear signal for the next winter by rolling forward the objective closest matches for the winter or the past 12 months. My gut is a true Neutral though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 On 3/14/2022 at 1:20 PM, andyhb said: Rumours of the La Nina's demise were greatly exaggerated. we might need climate modification to end la nina from what I've been reading about the abnormal warming of the west pac This might be a permanent condition now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: we might need climate modification to end la nina from what I've been reading about the abnormal warming of the west pac This might be a permanent condition now Is the abnormal warming of the west pac directly correlated to a certain la nina? (And if so, why?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/15/2022 at 4:47 PM, raindancewx said: This past winter was very cold in some of the ENSO regions, just not the regions CPC uses to determine strength. It's a huge issue and the largest flaw with ONI, imo. The most egregious recent example is 2018 - a weak el nino if you go by CPC, when the reality - consisting of extreme warmth (both in magnitude and duration) in nino 4, a record positive PMM, 315+ ACE in the EPac, etc... were all indicative of a +ENSO event stronger in magnitude than weak. On 3/15/2022 at 4:47 PM, raindancewx said: There are a lot of years where the coldest waters can't get past 150W, and the real powerful La Ninas can shut down the convection in Nino 4. Convection in nino 4 and around the Dateline - as measured by OLR - has been generally shut down since spring of 2020. This winter was no exception On 3/15/2022 at 4:47 PM, raindancewx said: You can see on Tropical Tidbits that there has been rapid warming this month in Nino 1.2 and Nino 3, as the warmth below the surface in February surfaces. We'll see how things go, but there isn't a clear signal for the next winter by rolling forward the objective closest matches for the winter or the past 12 months. Yep.. it's the downwelling wave that initiated back in December. While very strong trades prevail over the Dateline, trades are actually weaker than normal in the far east Pacific where this (attenuated) Kelvin wave is beginning to surface. Something to watch. On a personal note, I would like to say that I appreciate your diligence. Any disagreements we may have had does not change that For the rest of y'all, you should probably mentally prepare yourselves for yet another active hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is the abnormal warming of the west pac directly correlated to a certain la nina? (And if so, why?) Anomalous warmth around the Maritime Continent helps to anchor convection and strengthen the Walker circulation via increased ascent over the region. This results in increased subsidence downstream over the EPac (what goes up must come down) and the surface pressure gradient tightens due to the difference between lower pressure over Indonesia and higher pressure over the EPac. The stronger trades that results then pushes the WPac warm pool westward and causes it to "pile up" at depth, amplifying the thermocline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: we might need climate modification to end la nina from what I've been reading about the abnormal warming of the west pac This might be a permanent condition now ..and due to the increased warmth at depth over the WPac that naturally results from La Nina conditions / enhanced trades, there's ample "fuel" for initiation of robust downwelling Kelvin waves whenever MJO events and associated westerly wind bursts pushes through the Pacific. This happened in December.. and it's generally how La Nina self terminates. Don't see why it would be any different in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 6 hours ago, StruThiO said: ..and due to the increased warmth at depth over the WPac that naturally results from La Nina conditions / enhanced trades, there's ample "fuel" for initiation of robust downwelling Kelvin waves whenever MJO events and associated westerly wind bursts pushes through the Pacific. This happened in December.. and it's generally how La Nina self terminates. Don't see why it would be any different in the future We'll find out in a few years I guess, we've never had more than a three year la nina have we? Why are multiyear la ninas more common than multiyear el ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Most interesting part of this event for me is how cold it has been out here in both February & March. That was in the 1974-75 analog, and it's verified quite well locally. Current Feb-Mar is running coldest in town since 1998. Been a very good period for the high terrain feeding the Rio Grande. As is always the case, the cold potent storms in March-May down here end up producing substantial severe weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Wouldn't be March without pseudo-blizzard conditions in New Mexico. Should send that George guy out here. Shame so many die from our snow in Spring via the severe weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Some early criteria to look at for winter 2022-23: - High Solar - Following Two La Nina winters in a row (<26.0C in Nino 3.4 in DJF), although I did fudge this a bit to include 1997, 2013. 1951, 1956, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2012, 2013 If you split the group into +ENSO and -ENSO following two La Ninas, you get one of two options. The El Ninos - Cold ENSOs - Year-to-date locally (i.e. ~1/4 of the year), several of these years are near perfect matches to observed temperatures: 1951, 1956, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2012, 2013 ABQ Average Temperature 1/1-3/28. 40 2007-03-28 41.3 0 - 2001-03-28 41.3 0 - 1945-03-28 41.3 0 43 1998-03-28 41.2 0 44 2002-03-28 41.0 0 45 1992-03-28 40.9 0 - 1974-03-28 40.9 0 - 1938-03-28 40.9 0 48 2022-03-28 40.8 1 - 2013-03-28 40.8 0 - 2008-03-28 40.8 0 - 1941-03-28 40.8 0 52 1982-03-28 40.7 0 - 1951-03-28 40.7 0 - 1940-03-28 40.7 0 55 1979-03-28 40.6 0 56 1990-03-28 40.5 0 - 1965-03-28 40.5 0 - 1961-03-28 40.5 0 59 1935-03-28 40.4 0 60 1947-03-28 40.3 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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