2021-2022 ENSO

[StormchaserChuck!]

A rapidly deteriorating event at the surface for February looks like this..

to be continued..

I think 4/6 analog composite researches I have done have given us a strong el nino for later in the year, but I intuitively feel that this will not be the case, but these multi-year analog composites of +1.5 and +2.0c+ are impressive. 

[raindancewx]

Almost all major east coast snowstorms are followed by huge, snow-pack destroying warm spells within about two weeks. That gels pretty well with what I expect to happen in February nationally. Have to see how it goes. 

For my purposes, largest square mile coverage x highest average snow cover is the correct measure for snowstorm magnitude. 

Cyclically, this storm time frame showed up in October for January at two harmonic / MJO cycles of +45 days. Might show up again in April or even late March as the pattern changes with ENSO/seasonal progression changes. Impulse timing has been fairly similar to 2020-21, even though temperatures are very different, so if you look back, NYC had the big system sometime around 2/1/21 if I remember right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter

[raindancewx]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:04 PM, raindancewx said:

Mid-Dec to Late-Dec period of active Western storminess looks like it will come back. This is a pretty substantial rex block forecast in the short term for Kamchatka that will translate to storms for at least California and Arizona in the 1/31-2/3 time frame.

Here is December 13 for comparison ahead of the big system around 12/31, with a similar rex block in a stormy period for the West.

Ta Da. (For what it's worth, the big Nor'easter forecast showed up in the Bering Sea too in early January, not that anyone looks at that stuff).

[StormchaserChuck!]

There goes the Kelvin wave..

[raindancewx]

By the American definition, this isn't really a La Nina at the moment. All the cold is 120W and east. Still pretty consistent with my "Nino 3" La Nina winter idea really. Have to see if the cold by Nino 3 spreads west again or just thins like the western areas. Last year the cold pushed all the way to 160-165E. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

This is a La Nina hold

 

 

-perception that we will be switching phases in the Summer, but I don't think so

[StormchaserChuck!]

Global warming cycle.. year 5

 

[StruThiO]

Window for El nino is quicky closing, now. Trades and strong Nina forcing are returning with a vigor. Look for attenuation of this current downwelling Kelvin wave followed by a reemergence of the cold pool.

3-year nina coming? This gargantuan February trade burst has massive implications for the rest of the calendar year...

[StruThiO]

La Nina strengthening going into spring just doesn't happen during weak episodes...... it was always a moderate to strong event. Feel free to handwring about arbitrary surface temperature measurements in incredibly specific zones instead of viewing the whole picture.. to your own demise.

[StormchaserChuck!]

+NPH, Feb 1-17, La Nina NE Pacific pattern, +NOI, since 1948 + and - analogs(20). 

[raindancewx]

Subsurface data finished at -0.2 for January 2022. If you like the subsurface as the pattern indicator in real time, currently much weaker event than last year in the 100-180W zone, when the subsurface was -1.0 or so. The subsurface actually moved a tiny bit above average (warm) in the most recently weekly update from CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Sunspot data has been interesting. Up to over 40 sunspots/month since July. Still trending up pretty rapidly. 

My winter forecast assumed there would be some kind of major cold dump into New Mexico / Texas in February. It's a bit early, but we could have a high of 28F or something - that's very cold. After today, the first week of February looks very cold with highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s, when average is about 50. Some of our mountains will get 20 inches of snow or more with the coming system. I did flag it in mid-January using the massive Rex Block by Kamchatka, but no one cares. Even mentioned it would be a cold system. The joke is the "benchmark" for the NE has a translation spot in the North Pacific at 17-21 days out, and so the big system for New England was there a few days before the setup below.

 

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Subsurface data finished at -0.2 for January 2022. If you like the subsurface as the pattern indicator in real time, currently much weaker event than last year in the 100-180W zone, when the subsurface was -1.0 or so. The subsurface actually moved a tiny bit above average (warm) in the most recently weekly update from CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Sunspot data has been interesting. Up to over 40 sunspots/month since July. Still trending up pretty rapidly. 

My winter forecast assumed there would be some kind of major cold dump into New Mexico / Texas in February. It's a bit early, but we could have a high of 28F or something - that's very cold. After today, the first week of February looks very cold with highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s, when average is about 50. Some of our mountains will get 20 inches of snow or more with the coming system. I did flag it in mid-January using the massive Rex Block by Kamchatka, but no one cares. Even mentioned it would be a cold system. The joke is the "benchmark" for the NE has a translation spot in the North Pacific at 17-21 days out, and so the big system for New England was there a few days before the setup below.

 

You were much more humble before I really did enjoy reading your posts but this just doesn't help. Not sure what got to you but hopefully it doesn't keep affecting you.

[StormchaserChuck!]

+NPH, +NOI Feb 1-19, really strong signal now. Similar to Strong El Nino's... reverses in March

recent

[StormchaserChuck!]

(2008 qualifies, kind of a different pattern 2008 to 2009 though)

[StormchaserChuck!]

This will be it for La Nina for a little while

[GaWx]

On 11/29/2021 at 10:25 PM, GaWx said:

 As shown above, the latest weekly Nino 3.4 warmed 0.3 C and is back up to -0.7 C. This means the chance at this La Niña ending up peaking as only weak (under -1.0) on an ONI (trimonthly max) basis has increased somewhat. I have been expecting a moderate peak (-1.0 to -1.4 based on 3 months of weeklies averaged out) but this new warming this late in autumn tells me it may not get there. In order to get a -1.0 or colder peak, the weeklies usually have to peak ~-1.2 to -1.3 or colder. The significance of that for SE/Mid Atlantic winters is that mild winters due to SE ridge domination have a good bit higher chance when La Niña is moderate or strong per analogs. But having only a weak La Niña would mean analogs that are closely balanced between AN, NN, and BN. Actually, after weak to moderate El Niño, your next best shot at a genuinely cold SE winter is weak La Niña. So, as one in the SE who prefers BN winters, I’m hoping it stays weak.

Kudos would be due for @40/70 Benchmark if it peaks as only weak.

 Well, it looks like La Niña barely made it to moderate per my definition on an ONI basis with a -1.0 C despite a weekly peak of only -1.1. I was thinking a -1.2 would have been needed:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 For all practical purposes, this will go down as borderline weak/moderate La Niña. So @40/70 Benchmark nailed it. Kudos!

[StormchaserChuck!]

Well, there goes Strong El Nino chances for this year. 

Same rebuilding/cooling of the central subsurface

[StormchaserChuck!]

We'll do at best Moderate El Nino. I don't even know if it will be El Nino at all because of rising/ascending solar phase underperforming historically favors La Nina. April-May may see a blip in Nino 3,3.4 to +0.3/+0.4 something like that. If there is an El Nino wave it will happen in August..  09-10 might be a good analog for next Winter, although it was an awkward Winter. 

[jaxjagman]

looks more like 2017-18,this is into April but still

[raindancewx]

La Ninas that weaken rapidly at the subsurface in Jan-Feb tend to see these major cold dumps into the Southwest. It was a major premise of my forecast, "arrogance" and all that aside. You can see similar things in 1995-96 and others too if you when to look for it. The subsurface is approaching +0.3 or so now in the 100-180W zone. The signal for the cold snap below was evident from at least four different angles when I did my forecast - rolling forward February 2021 like years, ENSO rapid weakening, objective (absolute value) matches locally on temps/precip for 2021, and I also based a lot of it on rolling forward similar temperature/precip patterns nationally in the Summer. It was a fairly common outcome after record SW Canada / NW US heat waves pre-mid July.

I don't know about the rest of the NW, but I think Idaho and states northwest of Idaho at least has a shot to verify the cold NW idea in my outlook. If the cold holds on long enough here in February we'll be near average down here too, which is a good outcome for a La Nina in the Southwest. High locally is ~38 or something 2/2021 month to date. Average is 50 ish for early February.

I still don't consider this event to be a Moderate. Even on the Jan Null standard most of you guys like with three three-month periods for ONI at/under -1.0, I don't think we'll get there since Nino 3.4 is nearing 26.0C already on the weeklies. It's really quite similar to 2017-18, which I don't think many see a Moderate event. I would say, frankly, that 2017-18 looks healthier in a strictly visual sense with some purples making it quite far on the journey to Jakarta.

 

[StruThiO]

>I still don't consider this event to be a Moderate.

Well, luckily for us we can go ahead and discard your opinion. This was a very clear moderate if you paid any attention to facts like ocean-atmosphere coupling, and it even reached the arbitrary ONI threshold for a moderate even, too. I bet you also consider the el nino of 2018-19 "weak" as well when it clearly wasn't if you looked at anything besides completely arbitrary nino 3.4 measurements and associated ONI values. Perhaps the biggest issue with your 2017-18 comparison is the complete reversal of the PDO state from that year, another sign of the strength of the recent Nina episode compared to that year. Even if we ignore literally the entire North Pacific, yet another issue is the stronger warmth around the Maritime Continent during this event.. indicating a stronger Walker Cell and easily offsetting the very slightly warmer Central equatorial Pacific during the timeframe you've plotted.

[StruThiO]

MJO is emerging in the Indian Ocean and constructive interference with Nina is beginning. The trades have returned; you can say goodbye to this downwelling Kelvin wave

 

Complete opposite of what you want to see if you were rooting for an El Nino. Maybe next year?

[so_whats_happening]

22 hours ago, StruThiO said:

MJO is emerging in the Indian Ocean and constructive interference with Nina is beginning. The trades have returned; you can say goodbye to this downwelling Kelvin wave

 

Complete opposite of what you want to see if you were rooting for an El Nino. Maybe next year?

Hmm maybe La Nina modoki to finish out the last year? I keep feeling like we may still have 3rd year La Nina, it has been kind of playing in the back of my mind for a bit. I had originally thought warm neutral was going to happen going into next winter but continuation of increased trade winds especially being much further west then the last 2 bouts has me second guessing. No coherent MJO wave that moves more than 1 octant in a month has occurred thus far and usually we are seeing some wave movement by now if we were to be going toward El Nino like. Not to mention the IOD is still in negative phase.

Will be interesting to watch.

Last times we have had 3rd year La Nina (1954-56 didn't quite make it into 3rd full year, 1973-76, 1998-2001) Periodicity of about 20-24 years in between each event.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I keep saying it, we need a 2-3 year El Nino to even out. A strong El Nino, would in the 500mb pattern, be like 72-73 next Winter, alone. +2.8c-+3.0c> would be the only way we do that +PNA/GOA low like 97-98,etc.

[StruThiO]

15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I keep saying it, we need a 2-3 year El Nino to even out. A strong El Nino, would in the 500mb pattern, be like 72-73 next Winter, alone. +2.8c-+3.0c> would be the only way we do that +PNA/GOA low like 97-98,etc.

I think this happens next year, TBH.

[raindancewx]

On 2/7/2022 at 10:50 PM, StruThiO said:

>I still don't consider this event to be a Moderate.

Well, luckily for us we can go ahead and discard your opinion. 

What are you talking about? The trades are weaker than last year, just like the SSTs, or the SOI, etc and I don't consider that year a moderate either. Certainly not in winter. Go look at the thread last winter, people bitched all winter about that event not being coupled because it didn't do what they wanted or expected.

The PDO dropped from +1.0 in Nov-Apr 2016-17 to near 0 in that period for 2017-18. That's a lot more impressive than going from -1 to -2 or -1.5 like we will in the transition from 2020-21 to 2021-22, since we were still cooling off the big El Nino mid-decade. Especially since the PDO is already reversing while it continued to trend negative much later in 2017-18.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

SOI:
Dec/Jan/Feb 2020-21:  +16.8, +15.9, +11.3 

Dec/Jan/Feb 2021-22: +13.0, +11.7, ? 

Almost every weak event will get near 25.5C for a month or two like this event did. You have many years that sustain at 25.0C or colder in moderate events for a month or two. The readings this year are not impressive in any way. You can see the trades indirectly with the SOI too:

You can dress it up anyway you like but we're likely to hit 15 or more years without a real moderate La Nina at this point. My threshold is always actual temperatures. We're well over 10 years without a 25.5C or colder La Nina in DJF. For the past 60 years, 26.5C in average in Nino 3.4

I don't use ONI. CPC uses a rolling 30-year average for ONI, so you're just saying "WOW we had slight cooling even though the SSTs are 0.4C warmer than in the 1950s! Let's call it a Moderate by ONI". It's pretty dumb, in 70 years, you'll have events now called weak El Ninos as near La Ninas with their current process.

Trades are kind of a dumb way to evaluate this stuff anyway. Look at 1988-89. You going to tell me that was a weak La Nina now? You guys have no consistency with this stuff at all. Pick a method and stick with it. On the SOI, MEI, or by SSTs, that's a much stronger La Nina than this one. but it looks like nothing below. The subsurface peaked way colder in that event, below -2.0, and it has all the other measures to back it up. It sure as hell didn't see this crap in early February.

 

[StruThiO]

>The trades are weaker than last year, just like the SSTs, or the SOI, etc and I don't consider that year a moderate either.

You're the only one, congratulations.

>Especially since the PDO is already reversing

yeah, it only hit near-record lows, you expect that to be sustainable?????? what

>You can dress it up anyway you like but we're likely to hit 15 or more years without a real moderate La Nina at this point.

Uhhh 2010? (or are you [rightfully] counting that event as strong, not moderate)

>It's pretty dumb, in 70 years, you'll have events now called weak El Ninos as near La Ninas with their current process.

Not really... given the Earth has warmed almost 1.5C in the last 70 years.. this is why using raw temperatures like this in a quickly warming climate is quite frankly a fool's errand. ENSO has nothing to do with raw temperatures. It is a change in the Walker Cell caused by RELATIVE differences in temperature.

>Trades are kind of a dumb way to evaluate this stuff anyway

....what??? Trades are the surface component of the Walker Cell? A sustained change in the trades is a sustained change in the Walker Circulation, which is literally the definition of an ENSO event.

>Look at 1988-89. You going to tell me that was a weak La Nina now?

No? I'd tell you that it was a strong La Nina? One of the strongest on record?

>Pick a method and stick with it.

Bad meteorology, no offense. No one index, especially taken at face value, accurately measures something as complex in nature as ENSO. As I have previously stated, the entire picture must be examined.

[StormchaserChuck!]

So tru though

[StruThiO]

Another piece of evidence is the outgoing longwave radiation - of which a standing wave of positive anomalies remains staunchly centered over the Antimeridian. For all the hooplah about La Nina decaying, the recent MJO pulse barely put a dent in it. Given it spent a month in the destructively interfering phases 6/7 at ~2sigma amplitude, this is quite pathetic. The robustness of the standing wave of suppressed convection continues to speak volumes regarding the strength of the current Nina event.

[StormchaserChuck!]

La Nina ridge has extended into the West Coast