raindancewx Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Canadian has an East-central look for the La Nina for the winter, with rapid weakening starting February. Near El Nino conditions by Summer on this run. The Southwest is not forecast to be dry, which is interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 18 hours ago, raindancewx said: The Canadian has an East-central look for the La Nina for the winter, with rapid weakening starting February. Near El Nino conditions by Summer on this run. The Southwest is not forecast to be dry, which is interesting to me. Yuck I hope that’s wrong that is a horrible pattern for snow in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Subsurface warmed to -1.10 for November (was -1.6 in December, so pretty massive warming actually, similar to how an El Nino Modoki would develop, which ties in with the cold East...). Very similar to 2020 again. The ongoing trajectory of the subsurface for 100-180W remains very similar to 2011. For what it's worth, I couldn't find an individual year in the subsurface data very similar to 2021. You can kind of get there blending 1983, 1984, 2010, 2016 or using other years with a big cold cool growing in October before rapidly shrinking in November. But the level of cold isn't right, just the trend. The top SOI Sept-Nov blend is very warm for December, but the subsurface blends are very cold. I went near average to somewhat warm everywhere. Canadian look for December does match "low solar" cold ENSO November temperature profiles rolled forward, but exaggerated by a very strong -PDO. You can see what I mean on the bottom row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 7:24 PM, raindancewx said: CFS has the wettest look for California I've seen it show since January 2017 at least. For anyone who saw my outlook, I included 2001-02 in it as an analog. It's not a great analog in a lot of ways. But it has a big wet West December with similar warmth to 12/2020 overall, which is not super common as a look in cold ENSO years. In October, when the subsurface was cooling for most of the month, it was wet in the West too. The CFS also seems to be rapidly trending toward a +WPO look, which is great for me, but a major warm signal for most of you. My sense for December when I did my forecast was November would have a +WPO look and flood Canada with warm air, nullifying the effect of the later blocking in December to some extent. The WPO didn't verify that way for November, but most of Canada is very warm month to date, so not sure it matters too much. Alaska actually has been cold this month, so any storms coming into the West from that region with a +WPO look could be cold/powerful in December. It may not be such a bad analog if it continues being snowless across the CONUS. 10% snowcover is one of the lowest on record at this point and TWC is making a big deal about not naming a winter storm this year, the latest by far that's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 6 hours ago, George001 said: Yuck I hope that’s wrong that is a horrible pattern for snow in New England uhm it's bad for snow across the entire CONUS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: uhm it's bad for snow across the entire CONUS lol True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 20 hours ago, George001 said: Yuck I hope that’s wrong that is a horrible pattern for snow in New England Its not as bad as it looks...its like 1-3 degrees above average as is. I would argue its actually biased a bit warm at the surface around here with cold being plentiful in Canada. It has the right idea IMO. It implies a blend of Apps runners/SWFE and Miller B redevelopment, dependent upon how timing and degree of any confluence and blocking that is in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 0c subsurface touching 150W.. not going to redevelop into Weak Nina territory in the subsurface, surface will probably go positive in March or April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 Warm pool strengthening in the west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 Not really sure who gets this.. it took 30 seconds to load 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 ^40/70 it's a pretty awesome signal, December -PNA = El Nino soon after (usually you are always on one side of consistency for the sake of randomness). Also Dec 1957 and 1965 had big -PNA December's and were followed by -NAO fwiw I'm kind of worried about the displaced -NAO though (could be some +NAO-default tendency this year) (I like because they were El Nino years and it kind of matches the encroaching subsurface warm pool.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I am wondering if 2002 may be a viable analog next year...just thinking aloud.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 I think we're trending for a snowier Winter next year, right now. I want to see if the +ENSO develops after ~+0.3 in ~April. The trend for the last few years has been a reversal of the warmth after some warm pockets surface. I think all the analog stuff showing an El Nino has little weight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Wondering what will happen around jan 15th, as we are doing opposite of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 22 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I think we're trending for a snowier Winter next year, right now. I want to see if the +ENSO develops after ~+0.3 in ~April. The trend for the last few years has been a reversal of the warmth after some warm pockets surface. I think all the analog stuff showing an El Nino has little weight.. I saw @raindancewx mention that a modoki maybe favored next year...too early for me to say that, but I do think that there will be an el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/11/2021 at 8:52 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am wondering if 2002 may be a viable analog next year...just thinking aloud.... because this season will be like 2001-02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: because this season will be like 2001-02? There are some similarities, though I didn't use it as an analog. No, I don't think this winter will be as lackluster as that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 New upwelling kelvin wave emerging at depth now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Even with first mjo emergence of this Niña trades remain stalwart. inactive phase in couple weeks will shut down all talk of Niña terminating before April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 That's a -PNA signal for Winter 22-23 because ENSO central subsurface is warmer than cold right now vs -PNA (57-59, 65-67, 72-74, 97-99). I'd be impressed if we have an El Nino next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 +3 popping up the western subsurface.. ENSO subsurface vs 4-5SD -PNA in December is a -PNA signal for Jan-Feb 2023, and that tends to coincide more with La Nina than El Nino (April-May on). 2010 is the only other year that had such a strong December -PNA (300dm) vs 230dm[2nd], and this is how it evolved. -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.9 We will beat 2010 for number 1 this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 In Dec 1995, we had a strong Kelvin Wave "head fake", and also 79-80,, 96-97 was a Strong El Nino 1 year later, but 96-97 was Neutral. 82-83 was also the 2nd strongest El Nino, 2-3 years later fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Opposite correlation to last year, 15D model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Nina isnt going no where for a time,The Equatorial is dropping once again and that map STU showed above shows its cooling once again the same place where we saw this impressive numbers earlier down into the subsurface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 PDO is the coolest since 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 2:03 AM, StruThiO said: PDO is the coolest since 1961. Yea, that isn't going to change this season...the arctic will determine our fate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that isn't going to change this season...the arctic will determine our fate. This is an ENSO thread... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, StruThiO said: This is an ENSO thread... I understand that....but since most of the interest in ENSO is within the context of its impact on midlatitude weather, which is where 98% if us live, the fleeting reference to the artic was germane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Strongest -PNA probably on record now.. I don't know about the early 1900's, but I think that was mostly +PNA/+PDO. late 1800s maybe. For this time of the year, Dec 1955 and 2010 hold 2nd and 3rd place, both Strong Nina's. As I guessed, central and eastern subsurface have cooled +0days with -PNA pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Strongest -PNA probably on record now.. I don't know about the early 1900's, but I think that was mostly +PNA/+PDO. late 1800s maybe. For this time of the year, Dec 1955 and 2010 hold 2nd and 3rd place, both Strong Nina's. As I guessed, central and eastern subsurface have cooled +0days with -PNA pattern. Weren't you guessing that la nina was dead like a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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