2021-2022 ENSO

[raindancewx]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Are la ninas actually more common than el ninos are, but when el ninos occur they are usually stronger?

Some of the attempts at reconstructing El Ninos / La Ninas imply that long-term, pre-1700/1800s, La Ninas were more common by quite a bit. Right now, I think it's 40/40/20 between La Nina / El Nino and Neutral.

CPC uses a sliding scale where every few years a La Nina initiates against a warmer base state, i.e.

(26.5C) + (rate of warming x years) - 0.5C = La Nina

To me, if the tropics are warming, it's real simple, La Ninas are becoming weaker and less common over time. The way things are going CPC will call 26.5C events in winter in Nino 3.4 La Ninas in 50 years.

The issue of course is the surface may be warming, but the oceans are deeper than Mount Everest in places, and once you get below 1,000 meters or so, the water is just above freezing basically everywhere. As long as the currents can pull up the very deep water, the slow warming on the surface doesn't really matter for the ENSO cycle.

[andyhb]

So the October measurement for the PDO via NCDC was -3.06, which is extremely strong. Last time it was that strong per that calculation was 1955 (precursor to a major drought year on the Plains).

Not sure what Mantua's calculation has, but we've clearly transitioned out of the predominantly positive phase that was present since 2013 or so.

[raindancewx]

Yup. I've done research on the PDO. When it's over +1 or below -1 on the Mantua calculation you go against it at your own peril. The 2017-18 to 2020-21 Nov-Apr periods were all in the -1 to +1 range, where it is much less important. The record cold/snow in late 2014-15 was with the most positive PDO ever. I should be clear though, the correlations are strongest for the PDO roughly 1/20-3/10.

In any case, the new Euro has a much weaker La Nina than at this time last year. My forecast had a La Nina peak around 25.5-25.75 in Nov-Dec that reversed to 25.75-26.00C for Dec-Feb. That still looks right to me. The November peak last year was 25.28C, and years like 2010 were already at 25.0C in November.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Digging -PDO in October <-1 is really -PNA

https://ibb.co/pwYgvgN

But not in Nov

https://ibb.co/Y38stHk

 

Opp analogs https://ibb.co/4RcVJYr good -NAO too

 

We had 3 periods of 3+ year -PDO's, they all went +ENSO 1-4 years after3/3

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.ersstv5.data

[StormchaserChuck!]

The 55-56 analog is ridiculous.. next 5 Winter's

 

[raindancewx]

Last year's La Nina was fairly similar to 1954-55 in some ways, with an early peak, low solar, following an El Nino, etc. 2019-20 and even 2018-19 were a bit like 1953-54.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data

It's not really that surprising that we have some characteristics of 1955-56. I've been avoiding that year as an analog because it's a ridiculously strong La Nina in the Fall (24.25C in Nino 3.4! That's -2.25C, comparable to 1997 in the opposite direction). I'd imagine the subsurface reading in that event was -3 or -4 given how cold it got. 

You can see some of the similarities though -  the big weird super +WPO,  super -NAO look is there in October 1955 like in October 2021.

October   WPO      NAO

1955        +1.20       -1.47

2021         +1.74       -2.29

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

3-year Nina 

https://ibb.co/27CXg3h

followed by 3 years of what we talked about 

https://ibb.co/ZKVmMhJ

I expect a 2013-2014-2015 WC potential energy repeat. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Last year's La Nina was fairly similar to 1954-55 in some ways, with an early peak, low solar, following an El Nino, etc. 2019-20 and even 2018-19 were a bit like 1953-54.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data

It's not really that surprising that we have some characteristics of 1955-56. I've been avoiding that year as an analog because it's a ridiculously strong La Nina in the Fall (24.25C in Nino 3.4! That's -2.25C, comparable to 1997 in the opposite direction). I'd imagine the subsurface reading in that event was -3 or -4 given how cold it got. 

You can see some of the similarities though -  the big weird super +WPO,  super -NAO look is there in October 1955 like in October 2021.

October   WPO      NAO

1955        +1.20       -1.47

2021         +1.74       -2.29

 

We had a 1955-56 style la nina a few years ago when we had 4 big coastal storms in March and even an April snowstorm on the east coast a few years ago.

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

We had a 1955-56 style la nina a few years ago when we had 4 big coastal storms in March and even an April snowstorm on the east coast a few years ago.

 

March 2018 was wild, I remember mid month there was a massive 960s mb storm that was offshore, but the precip field was so expansive that when combined with the North Atlantic blocking in place, it resulted in severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass. My area got so much snow (there was already about 10 inches on the ground from a previous storm a few days ago), that due to the weight of all the snow, a huge tree fell in my backyard and we hired someone to remove it. I’m not sure the exact totals, but eyeballing it looked to be at least 20 inches of snow from that storm. Nearby towns reported in the range of 20-24, and I believe some areas farther north got close to 30 inches. 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, George001 said:

March 2018 was wild, I remember mid month there was a massive 960s mb storm that was offshore, but the precip field was so expansive that when combined with the North Atlantic blocking in place, it resulted in severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass. My area got so much snow (there was already about 10 inches on the ground from a previous storm a few days ago), that due to the weight of all the snow, a huge tree fell in my backyard and we hired someone to remove it. I’m not sure the exact totals, but eyeballing it looked to be at least 20 inches of snow from that storm. Nearby towns reported in the range of 20-24, and I believe some areas farther north got close to 30 inches. 

Thats actually the only time I've lost power in a snowstorm.  Fortunately it was only gone for a couple of hours but that was one wild month!

 

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had a 1955-56 style la nina a few years ago when we had 4 big coastal storms in March and even an April snowstorm on the east coast a few years ago.

 

I thought 1983-84 was a good analog to 2017-18 cause both had a record warm February followed by a stormy March...

[StormchaserChuck!]

Really just ridiculous +PNA wrt what is being experienced in the ENSO subsurface.. I say it over and over, this is a winner.  

https://ibb.co/hDcL3t8

^GFSensembles is +PNA for next 16-days. https://ibb.co/FXfj8DW

https://ibb.co/mGxHb6H

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I thought 1983-84 was a good analog to 2017-18 cause both had a record warm February followed by a stormy March...

Yea, I like 83-84, too.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

I thought 1983-84 was a good analog to 2017-18 cause both had a record warm February followed by a stormy March...

thats another good one although 2018 had the long duration snowstorm like 1956 did.  There was no match for the April 2 snowstorm though, got 6 inches in that one and the Yankees home opener was snowed out.

I like getting one of those per decade lol

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I like 83-84, too.

Ray, do you think it will be as cold as that winter was?  Aside from February wasnt that a really cold winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I like 83-84, too.

Must adjust for the fact that el chichen might have made  that winter colder than it would've otherwise been and the fact that 82-83 was a super el nino and la ninas preceded by el ninos are different, let alone one preceded by a super el nino.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

+PNA Nov in La Nina switches the next year 5-3 El Nino.. -PNA Nov in La Nina goes 7-0 to another La Nina. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Look at Nov 2008 as an analog

https://ibb.co/XLcTRY8   https://ibb.co/94mCFX0

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Must adjust for the fact that el chichen might have made  that winter colder than it would've otherwise been and the fact that 82-83 was a super el nino and la ninas preceded by el ninos are different, let alone one preceded by a super el nino.

 

Doesn't really matter to me, as the utility for me is mostly the active finish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Look at Nov 2008 as an analog

https://ibb.co/XLcTRY8   https://ibb.co/94mCFX0

Yea, I had that year, too...more for the early season than late. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't really matter to me, as the utility for me is mostly the active finish.

Are you thinking a two peak winter, with a the traditional active la nina beginning and an active end too?  A true book end winter.

 

[uncle W]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thats another good one although 2018 had the long duration snowstorm like 1956 did.  There was no match for the April 2 snowstorm though, got 6 inches in that one and the Yankees home opener was snowed out.

I like getting one of those per decade lol

 

 

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Are you thinking a two peak winter, with a the traditional active la nina beginning and an active end too?  A true book end winter.

 

Yes.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

wow almost reached 40" in 1955-56.....the April snow makes it an even closer match to what happened in 2017-18

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

How much snow did we get in April 1957?

Must be a very rare case of significant snows in back to back Aprils?

April 1996 and 1997 would be another incidence of that, although not as significant in the city as it was on Long Island (east of here) and in New England as well as coastal NJ-- maybe more urban heat island effect influences in urban areas by then.

 

[raindancewx]

I'm not sure what's up with the weekly data v. Tropical Tidbits, but the TT
eastern zone warming does not show up below. 
On the weekly data, we remain warmer across the board than last year.
Subsurface continues to see cold and warmth moving east "up" so to speak.

This site is so infuriating with pictures - these links do no copy pictures
correctly sometimes, and other times they do.
https://ibb.co/F4wZwj8

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 29SEP2021     21.2 0.5     24.9-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.0-0.6
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6
 27OCT2021     20.6-0.6     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.5
 03NOV2021     20.6-0.8     24.4-0.7     25.8-1.0     28.0-0.7

 30SEP2020     20.0-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.7     27.9-0.7
 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8
 28OCT2020     20.3-0.9     23.8-1.3     25.0-1.7     28.0-0.7
 04NOV2020     20.5-0.9     24.0-1.1     25.3-1.5     27.9-0.8

[stadiumwave]

This La Nina is dying. Who would've thought a month ago?

 

Lol @ CFS strong Nina forecast 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

This La Nina is dying. Who would've thought a month ago?

 

Lol @ CFS strong Nina forecast 

Been saying weak is most likely all along....though low end mod wouldn't a be a shock.

[Yanksfan]

 

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been saying weak is most likely all along....though low end mod wouldn't a be a shock.

Does anyone have the latest ENSO forecast graph? At the very least it looks like the Nina has peaked out. 

[uncle W]

48 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

 

Does anyone have the latest ENSO forecast graph? At the very least it looks like the Nina has peaked out. 

PowerPoint Presentation (noaa.gov)