Guest Ohwx_ Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder how much impact this recent solar flareup will have on winter....solar 25 seems to be off and running. Imo I feel like every cold/snowy winter has a solar flare mentioned in October/November… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 29, 2021 Author Share Posted October 29, 2021 Some slight +ENSO tendency here for next year https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg analogs https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL https://ibb.co/rxGGYpK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I mentioned in my winter outlook that I expected November to feature two distinct patterns, with a flip mid-month. Modeled that after August. You can see that the CFS has one of the two patterns I mentioned, using August. You can see the core heat in the Northwest with the South cold, like in the one part of the August pattern. In August, the cold in the West showed up later. If you're like me and think the CFS is much better at seeing the early month look, then the late August cold push may still be in there, but not visible yet to the CFS. These were from page 38 of my outlook - you can see it in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 year's after Strong El Nino's https://ibb.co/dJWxSdw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 Oh, opps. https://ibb.co/n0Jbpm3 2/3 turned the page to long term +ENSO cycles the following (7th year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The subsurface blotch of cold is moving up and east to the surface. This is consistent with my matches to Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, and 4 for Jan-Sept which showed Nino 4 not cooling much after the Fall, unlike last year. Nino 1.2/3 will probably cool most at the surface at the surface (relatively). You can also see that the warm area is expanding east and by intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 Yeah, I wonder if that warm can break 180W. It seems to me that the La Nina is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 We are at the time of year where there is one more central subsurface push, but otherwise I'd say we are in the general pattern/trend of warming back to +ENSO, especially to April-May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah, I wonder if that warm can break 180W. It seems to me that the La Nina is dead. Nothing about what raindance posted suggested the La Nina is dead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Last year, the October pattern showed up again in February. Will it do the same thing this year? I suspect not, but will be interesting to see. -WPO October and -AO February kind of do the same thing spatially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 hours ago, andyhb said: Nothing about what raindance posted suggested the La Nina is dead. Yea, it's just shifting more easterly, but at this point it seems safe to call it basinwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/28/2021 at 10:28 PM, raindancewx said: This is the period most correlated to ACE nationally in La Ninas - basically always warm in the West when 160 or higher. Last year certainly was warm in the West for NDJ. The white areas are more variable, so last year only is a decent match to the West. ACE 160+, NDJ, La Nina: ACE <160, NDJ, La Nina. The last year like this was 2016-17, and it certainly matches the hot Southeast US look, although again the rest of the US is variable. Weatherbell has the "super ACE" La Nina composite for NDJ on the Saturday Summary today. Will be curious to see how that goes. I'm actually not that different from what he has in Nov & Jan, just warmer. Have to see if these November 'x' systems on the NHC site can blow up the ACE value past 160. I'm pretty skeptical about December being super cold, mostly because I think November gets pretty cold after 11/15 or 11/20 and then it lasts into December and fades hard before 12/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 I was thinking January would be cooler, but it might be warmer with a ridge connecting to the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 We were never so warm at 180 in the subsurface in 2019 and it never went to El Nino, better chance than that time that was followed by La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 This event, if you use my dulled scale, is definitely not super weak, but it remains well below the stronger events of even the past 35 years, let alone since 1950. A lot of La Ninas feature a big area of waters 1.5C below average or colder in October. You don't really have that with this event. In general, October looks like a blend of 1999, 2011, 2020. I would say since 1985, the strongest October La Ninas are 1988, 1998, 2007, 2010. Then you have the events that are developed by October, but lacking a huge area of very cold waters at the surface. Last year's event was actually a top 10 event cold-ENSO in Oct-Nov before falling off a lot. The remaining events were weaker and not fully developed in October. These are the "late peak" and very weak events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 This is the top objective SOI match to August-October 2021 using 1931-2020. It's a super cold look for November, although the closest match is 1942, which is a very warm November. SOI Aug Sept Oct 1935 2.1 6.4 7.9 1942 3.9 8.7 9.2 1974 6.3 12.2 9.2 1996 4.8 6.9 5.2 2000 4.5 10.1 11.6 2011 2.6 11.1 9.7 Blend 4.0 9.2 8.8 2021 4.4 9.2 7.6 The five analogs I like for winter are damn close on the SOI too if you remove 2001, which I have in there for some special reasons. The blend I used doubled 1961 and added 2001 to the four years below, but it's still very similar to that look. SOI Aug Sept Oct 1961 -0.3 1.1 4.7 1974 6.3 12.2 9.2 2017 3.5 6.1 10.6 2020 8.4 9.9 4.4 Blend 4.5 7.3 7.2 2021 4.4 9.2 7.6 My personal view is global warming in a lot of patterns just means cold looks show up later. So I think the severe cold in the first blend probably does arrive. It's just not til the very end of the month, or at least after 11/15 or 11/20. If that's the case, I think what I have (and what the CFS shows now) is closer to the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Nino 3.4 dropped to -1.1 C fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Nino 3.4 dropped to -1.1 C fwiw. Woah! The strength of the La Niña is increasing quickly. I know you have said earlier you think it peaks at around -1.2, do you think we are close to peak strength right now or are you starting to think it may even become a strong La Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 29SEP2021 21.2 0.5 24.9-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.0-0.6 06OCT2021 21.0 0.2 24.7-0.3 26.1-0.6 28.0-0.7 13OCT2021 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.7 26.0-0.8 28.1-0.5 20OCT2021 20.3-0.7 24.2-0.8 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.6 27OCT2021 20.6-0.6 24.1-0.9 25.6-1.1 28.2-0.5 30SEP2020 20.0-0.8 24.4-0.6 26.0-0.7 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 20.1-0.7 24.1-0.9 25.8-0.9 27.9-0.7 14OCT2020 20.5-0.4 24.1-0.9 25.6-1.1 27.8-0.8 21OCT2020 20.5-0.6 24.2-0.9 25.5-1.3 27.8-0.8 28OCT2020 20.3-0.9 23.8-1.3 25.0-1.7 28.0-0.7 We remain warmer at the surface v 2020. I've included in ( ) the 1967, 2001, 2011 blend for the main zones I mentioned in my winter outlook for October. We're a bit less east based at the moment than I had it, but not much. It's mostly because Nino 1.2 has been so much warmer than that blend. October on the weeklies implies: Nino 1.2: 20.65C Nino 3: 24.35C (24.03C) Nino 3.4: 25.85C (26.07C) Nino 4: 28.10C (28.38C) The October subsurface reading was -1.67 for 0-300m depth at the equator in the Pacific. Tracking very similar to 2011 still, but colder below. There is evidence of the subsurface warming now though. Surface peak may be November (that's pretty common). The Canadian seems to over-amplify ENSO strength every October, then back off in November - so you do have it showing a much weaker event now for winter. That said, I do think the Canadian is pretty good at identifying temperature patterns for the next month. My main analogs for winter were 1974 and 2017. The blend is pretty similar to the Canadian. That said, I did weight the five years blend I used pretty differently. I'm a lot closer to what the CFS showed for November. My winter blend is pretty close to a simple blend of 1974 and 2017 for temperatures, even with the three other years added in, so I actually find this encouraging for an analog package I put together from late-September to early-October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 hours ago, George001 said: Woah! The strength of the La Niña is increasing quickly. I know you have said earlier you think it peaks at around -1.2, do you think we are close to peak strength right now or are you starting to think it may even become a strong La Niña? Yeah, I predicted within a range of -1.0 to -1.4. I'm sticking with that. Keep in mind that that is for the ONI trimonthly fall/winter peak. The weeklies, themselves, would peak higher than the trimonthly, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Euro still kind of sucks at forecasting Nino 4. But overall, the eastern zones cooled much faster in October than the Western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Jan-Oct comparison for 2021 v. my main analogs with the update today. All Nino zones remained warmer at the surface than last year this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO Weren't you calling for a very neg NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 You can see the coldest blotch of waters is actually moving pretty quickly to the east now. 140W and -100m on 9/25 for the center. Then 130W and -80m on 10/31 for the center. There is a lot of warmth coming that will drain into Western Nino 4 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 6 hours ago, raindancewx said: You can see the coldest blotch of waters is actually moving pretty quickly to the east now. 140W and -100m on 9/25 for the center. Then 130W and -80m on 10/31 for the center. There is a lot of warmth coming that will drain into Western Nino 4 too. Are la ninas actually more common than el ninos are, but when el ninos occur they are usually stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 October nao value came in at -2.29 which is just short of the record of -2.30 set in 1968...-2.28 in 2002...-2.24 in 2006...-2.06 in 2012...2021 is the lowest none el nino year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 ^5 consecutive years 2002-2006 all had very -NAO October's https://ibb.co/CMB9G9z 4/5 of these years were +ENSO, Jan-Feb: https://ibb.co/kmCWhxw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 The 160W-150W area is most important in the subsurface, and now it's net warm, I would technically as per all of my ENSO research classify this a +ENSO right now, and look what models have in a few days. https://ibb.co/9V7Wdb8 I don't think a La Nina has ever gone dead that early, they cycle through about Dec 21st, so I think we may see a redevelopment of cold anomalies in 160-150W starting in about 10-15 days.. but right now the strong western warm pool has breached the most important region.. kind of surprising I wonder if we will hit Strong Nino next year, I remember some impressive attempts/fails in 96-97 and 01-02. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 Anyway, +ENSO now is correlated to a -PNA Jan-Mar, I think. Maybe even Jan-May/Jun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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