2021-2022 ENSO

[StormchaserChuck!]

I did a roll-forward one year after cold water extended to 30S, the next year, Nino1.2->to 30S  is -0.1 to -0.5, Nino 3/4 0.0 (Neutral)

[raindancewx]

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
23 Oct 2021	1010.35	1010.90	-22.18	11.18	8.13
22 Oct 2021	1013.86	1010.00	6.25	11.58	8.55
21 Oct 2021	1014.88	1010.10	12.18	11.38	8.66
20 Oct 2021	1016.08	1012.15	6.70	11.41	8.73

Some fun for me coming. Been ages since we've have an almost 30 point daily SOI crash.

Longer-term, the 90 day SOI is still at weak La Nina levels (+8 to +12)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Some interesting things happening in the background: -NAO with a +AO. That's not real common.

Still think it's interesting that people think this event is going to catch up to last year at the surface. When is that going to happen? It's not early anymore. There are no big areas of purple like last year to spread out. The development is also opposite of last year, the western zones seem to be warming a bit this year, while they were cooling at this time last year. This is still a relatively basin wide event with a weakness in the middle to me (around 120W).

Preaching to the choir...I keep seeing posts on Twitter about how la nina is taking off and will def be moderate and top last year....isn't happening in terms of ONI. However, this season should be more nina like than last year, regardless.

[StruThiO]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Preaching to the choir...I keep seeing posts on Twitter about how la nina is taking off and will def be moderate and top last year....isn't happening in terms of ONI.

cringe. whole new level of "just ignore the pacific!!!" boston snow weenies already coping hard

[StormchaserChuck!]

We have some +AAM coming in here

https://ibb.co/dprj60C

This is a +ENSO-state, should be interesting to see what happens with ENSO. Because it's on there like ink blots, There may be a Stratosphere warming associated, if so, I would say this favors -PNA in December. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs

https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw

1 year later

https://ibb.co/5hZH5kd

2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!

https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9

^That's after a random mix of 20 analogs!

I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs

https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d

It's still -PNA for this Winter, alot ^that's Dec-Mar

Nov

https://ibb.co/QYtCK1F

Last 2 and 4 years

https://ibb.co/mc4jMDV

https://ibb.co/zQzFmnD

Cold South America coast wind

https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK

We'll call it the 2016-2021 regime. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

We had warm water off  the N.A /S.A coasts before all 3 Strong El Nino's. 

Started in 90-91... all the way to 97-98

Started in 79-80.. to 82-83

High pressure off the Westcoast U.S. 2013-2015, to 15-16

68-69 to 72-73 El Nino

https://ibb.co/DVKGS4N

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, StruThiO said:

cringe. whole new level of "just ignore the pacific!!!" boston snow weenies already coping hard

I'm ignoring the Pacific by pointing out that this la nina is running behind last year's in terms of ONI? That is an indisputable fact....period. Deal with it and stop making worthless drive by posts.

The rest of the Pacific is very la nina like...all I said was it's pretty tame in terms of ONI, which is not the whole story.

[raindancewx]

The huge rains dumping into the West shortly remind me of January 2021. The temperature profile is similar too nationally, +WPO, -NAO, but still very warm nationally outside the West. Sometimes it seems like we're still in the pattern from last year, but timing is off by 3-months. Of course if we were to continue down that road, you'd see the nuclear cold dump into the Plains in Nov or Dec. But I don't think that will happen, if for no other reason than the cold hasn't had time to build yet. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I have a feeling it will be different than20-21, same long range patterns though: pacific jet500 miles north,etc. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

It seems like a good planet for someone to hide. 

[snowman19]

Some on twitter are in panic mode right now that this event may go moderate and also be a late peak

[George001]

22 hours ago, StruThiO said:

cringe. whole new level of "just ignore the pacific!!!" boston snow weenies already coping hard

Boston does well in la ninas, even moderate and strong ones. The La Niña drastically increased in strength in the fall of 2010, which caused Boston snow weenies to panic and write off winter before it began. However, Boston got 80+ inches of snow that winter with multiple severe blizzards. I believe the la nina will increase in strength and become strong, but Ray or 40/70 benchmark isnt a weenie he knows his shit. Read his blogs, he is a really good forecaster and nailed last years winter forecast, he could very easily end up being right about the La Niña being weaker than many of us expect.

[George001]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Some on twitter are in panic mode right now that this event may go moderate and also be a late peak

The models are saying peak in November or early December that’s not really a late peak. It’s already at -.8 in the Enso 3.4 region so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the the surface continue catching up to the subsurface, leading to the Nina drastically increasing in strength. That’s nothing to panic about if you live north of NYC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Some on twitter are in panic mode right now that this event may go moderate and also be a late peak

Why anyone would panic over potential -1.1 ONI as opposed to -0.9 is beyond me...the overall character of the event is the same.

[StruThiO]

On 10/23/2021 at 6:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Preaching to the choir...I keep seeing posts on Twitter about how la nina is taking off and will def be moderate and top last year....isn't happening in terms of ONI.

 

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm ignoring the Pacific by pointing out that this la nina is running behind last year's in terms of ONI?

Here we have the goalposts being moved in real time! About the level of argumentation you'd expect from a Boston snow weenie.

[dmillz25]

15 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

 

Here we have the goalposts being moved in real time! About the level of argumentation you'd expect from a Boston snow weenie.

You’re calling @40/70 Benchmarka snow weenie? If he’s a snow weenie then lightning comes from the ground 

[uncle W]

it doesn't matter how strong the enso will be if there is blocking...1973-74 was the strongest la nina to start the winter and with some blocking it wasn't that bad in the NYC area...2010-11 had strong blocking in December and it was one of the best winters around these parts...without blocking you get a 1988-89 winter with hardly any snow...

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

 

Here we have the goalposts being moved in real time! About the level of argumentation you'd expect from a Boston snow weenie.

What goal posts moved? I referenced ONI in each of the posts that you quoted.

Tag and bag this one....lord.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What goal posts moved? I referenced ONI in each of the posts that you quoted.

Tag and bag this one....lord.

He’s from Florida...maybe he’s pulling a DIT where if he can’t get snow, nobody can, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

The models are saying peak in November or early December that’s not really a late peak. It’s already at -.8 in the Enso 3.4 region so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the the surface continue catching up to the subsurface, leading to the Nina drastically increasing in strength. That’s nothing to panic about if you live north of NYC.

I think NDJ is ONI peak.

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 08SEP2021     20.8 0.1     24.7-0.2     26.6-0.1     28.4-0.3
 15SEP2021     20.7 0.0     24.7-0.2     26.4-0.3     28.1-0.5
 22SEP2021     21.2 0.5     24.7-0.2     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.5
 29SEP2021     21.2 0.5     24.9-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.0-0.6
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6

 09SEP2020     19.9-0.8     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.3-0.3
 16SEP2020     20.1-0.6     24.1-0.8     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 23SEP2020     20.1-0.6     24.1-0.8     25.9-0.7     28.1-0.5
 30SEP2020     20.0-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.7     27.9-0.7
 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8

Solid basin wide look on the weekly data.

With apologies to CPC, 25.9C is more like -0.6C for mid-October long-term (1951-2010 or even 1981-2010). To me calling last year a moderate La Nina is still bs - the event dropped below 25.5C for three months. Meaningfully below for one month. There are like 15 stronger La Ninas than that by coldest reading or by duration just since 1950. The peak last year was 25.28C in November. We're barely edging below 26.0C in Nino 3.4 in late October.

 https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data

I'd expect this month to come in around 25.95C in Nino 3.4 shown below, v. the 25.46 in bold last October.

 2020  27.15   27.12   27.76   28.18  27.66  27.39  26.99  26.26  25.89  25.46  25.28  25.44
 2021  25.54  25.75  26.49  27.10  27.48   27.45  26.91  26.35  26.21 

CFS currently looks a bit like a 1974/2017 blend for November. Those were my main analogs, but not the weightings I used for November. CFS still looks off to me though.

Subsurface looks like it will be around -1.6 for October. It looks like it may have stopped cooling, but no reversal just yet.

That's pretty cold - but 1983, 1988, 1998, 2010 are colder. When I recreate the subsurface for a three month period, you usually can only get one outcome if you match on the numbers and the trend. For Aug-Oct, you can get a cold national November match (1983 & 1984 is very close) or a very warm November match depending on what you use. Will be very curious to see how things go. My gut is 2017 blended with stronger events will produce the correct result. But cold Aug-Oct matches 1983, 1988, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2020 among others, if you filter by dropping subsurface, and similar readings.

You can get wildly different national outcomes depending on how those years are blended.

The SOI looks like it will be around +9 or +10 for October. That supports a look about half way between what the CFS has (mild SE, hottest SW/Plains) and what I had (mild West Coast and TX, somewhat warm elsewhere) based on Aug-Oct matches from 1931-2020. SOI does look pretty positive the next week or so - have to see if it goes well over 10.

[raindancewx]

This a good example of why I think it's dumb to use climate models for seasonal forecasting. This is a one day change over 600 miles for the upper high in the Northwest Pacific for Novemeber. It's literally 180W / 50N one day, 165E / 50N another. If it can show a key feature moving 600 miles in a day, who the hell knows what it will show 10/31 when it will actually have some skill for November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its dumb to utilize anything exclusively and base a forecast off if it. They are tools, like everything else. CFS def. isn't my favorite climate model, though lol

[OHweather]

The Pacific jet is pulling back in the short term, briefly allowing for nice amplification over western Canada and a nice cold shot in early November...

It's a decent shot and some areas may see flakes, but I don't think we're done with Pacific influence yet, as there's been agreement the Pacific jet rams into the West Coast again into mid-November. We won't completely torch as there will be more chilly air running around, and it will be an active pattern as that energy undercuts the ridge over Canada, but it will probably lean mild again into mid-November:

Looking farther ahead, the low frequency forcing near 120E has drifted west into the Indian Ocean recently, and is beginning to constructively interfere with the MJO:

Will the MJO be able to pull the forcing back east towards 120E (and perhaps a bit farther into the West Pac) in mid-late November? The EPS and CFS velocity potential forecasts are attached:

In the fall and beginning of winter, tropical forcing moving into the western Pacific tends to suggest potential for blocking to develop in the short-medium term:

I think November ends up being up and down and not that cold overall over the central and eastern CONUS...however, there will be a nice cold shot to start the month and an active looking pattern, so I'm not saying something can't come together right and snow somewhere. But, I think we have trouble sustaining cold through the first 20 or so days of the month. Tropical forcing working into the western Pacific mid-late November could signal an opportunity for a more robust pattern change that can bring more significant and sustained cold. 

[raindancewx]

I'm a big believer in matching precipitation patterns nationally when selecting analogs. You can decide for yourself if this is a good match or not. Can already see the effect of the Atmospheric River event in California even over a six month period. Locally, the wetness in SE NM and SW AZ with dryness in between was damn hard to match.

[raindancewx]

ACE is kind of a big deal in La Nina for precipitation patterns in the West, especially in Nov-Jan, but you can already see the template setup in October. Years like 1995 with the record early Fall snows in the Rockies, super -WPO, and super ACE tend to follow the super-dry West template, while the lesser ACE years, like say 1984, look much more like 2016 and 2021. I'm looking forward to seeing 3,000 forecasts that have the western drought worsening though even though there are a lot of signs that this not that type of winter.

140 ACE La Nina:

180 & 225 ACE La Ninas:

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

ACE is kind of a big deal in La Nina for precipitation patterns in the West, especially in Nov-Jan, but you can already see the template setup in October. Years like 1995 with the record early Fall snows in the Rockies, super -WPO, and super ACE tend to follow the super-dry West template, while the lesser ACE years, like say 1984, look much more like 2016 and 2021. I'm looking forward to seeing 3,000 forecasts that have the western drought worsening though even though there are a lot of signs that this not that type of winter.

140 ACE La Nina:

180 & 225 ACE La Ninas:

I think it depends on where you are in the west. I think the Pacific NW, northern CA and the northern Rockies have a decent shot at a wet winter. Far from sold on that farther south though. 

[raindancewx]

This is the period most correlated to ACE nationally in La Ninas - basically always warm in the West when 160 or higher. Last year certainly was warm in the West for NDJ. The white areas are more variable, so last year only is a decent match to the West.

ACE 160+, NDJ, La Nina:

ACE <160, NDJ, La Nina. The last year like this was 2016-17, and it certainly matches the hot Southeast US look, although again the rest of the US is variable.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder how much impact this recent solar flareup will have on winter....solar 25 seems to be off and running.