2021-2022 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know, maybe I am missing something, but I would be surprised if this la nina event reached moderate strength, at this point...not that it means a great deal in the grand scheme of things.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I'd love to see what happens here in the Spring, the effects are shrinking I thinkwrt this La Nina. 

[raindancewx]

The second year La Nina / cold ENSO with a -QBO years are interesting. It's 1974-75, 1996-97,  2000-01, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2017-18. Some other debatable cases too, depending on how anal you want to be with either metric. 2008-09 and 1985-86 are both in the opposite QBO phase, and 1984-85 and 1967-68 are borderline for the QBO and ENSO status respectively.

I've been trying to match the severity, timing and placement of the February 2021 outbreak for cold to see what happens a year after. Mostly to see if it is possible to get severely cold February two years in a row, centered on the Plains each time. It actually does happen fairly often in the past 100 years. It was more common in the mid 1930s-mid 1960s and then again since the 1990s, which to me implies the AMO is involved, especially since the 1899 outbreak follows the AMO timing threshold and was similar in shape, magnitude, duration and intensity to last year.

I came up with February 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 as a blend for last February. Rolled forward to February 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019, you get a blend that looks like what I expect to happen for the month. Essentially a dulled, and more of a North & West focus for the cold. We'll see though. Might change my mind later.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nasty little -PDO shaping up.

[StormchaserChuck!]

More Winter analogs, PDO negative/falling in October, last 3 times in Neutral ENSO

[StormchaserChuck!]

On pace for 32 named storms. I even wonder if next year will be El Nino. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

90 in 3yrs? Then of course we'll have to do 96 in the 2040s or something.. 

[raindancewx]

I have a similar look to what you have for December. For November I expect that look to be transitional and not the entire month. I'm pretty different for January, and then I think February is pretty cold again. Not sure why you consider 2007 Neutral though? You'd get a different composite without it.

The models have been trending toward a widespread rain event in the Southwest for late September / early October. That's something that happened in 2017 before the 96-day precip free period started in October - terrifies me a little bit actually.

The big SOI crash recently is consistent with early October storminess out here, which also showed up in my analog blend when I attempted to time out the patterns. There are two "strands" where it has rained every 46-47 days here since June, and the next instance of the wet signal is about 10/1. For now, if the SOI finishes September around +10, the closest July-Sept match in the past 90 years is 1974, which is one of the analogs I like. I doubt the CFS has the right temperature for October at the moment, but it does look like October 1974 to some extent.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I have a similar look to what you have for December. For November I expect that look to be transitional and not the entire month. I'm pretty different for January, and then I think February is pretty cold again. Not sure why you consider 2007 Neutral though? You'd get a different composite without it.

The models have been trending toward a widespread rain event in the Southwest for late September / early October. That's something that happened in 2017 before the 96-day precip free period started in October - terrifies me a little bit actually.

The big SOI crash recently is consistent with early October storminess out here, which also showed up in my analog blend when I attempted to time out the patterns. There are two "strands" where it has rained every 46-47 days here since June, and the next instance of the wet signal is about 10/1. For now, if the SOI finishes September around +10, the closest July-Sept match in the past 90 years is 1974, which is one of the analogs I like. I doubt the CFS has the right temperature for October at the moment, but it does look like October 1974 to some extent.

 

Why is that? Was 2017-2018 a bad winter for you?

[StormchaserChuck!]

A lot of subsurface cooling. 

Decmber is wierd0.0 correlation with PNA, but Jan and should be negative. 

[raindancewx]

Hurricane Sam looks like it could push the number of major hurricane days above the 8.75 recorded last year. For the period with the ACE index, 1850-now, the 8.75 major hurricane day figure correlates to about 140 ACE long-term, despite the 180 that actually occurred from the parade of weak tropical storms. 

If Sam really last Sat-Thu (six days) as a major hurricane, we're already at 12 (!) days with a major hurricane this year. Then we could easily see a few more in October-November. Very simple way to estimate La Nina winter precipitation in Albuquerque is just 1.46" - (0.0522")*(major hurricane days). Probably not two cat five (ish) Nov storms though.

Last year that formula implied 1.00 inches and we had 0.82 inches. Average error for the past 29 La Ninas is 0.40" from that formula. 90% chance of being within 0.70" historically.

The trade off locally is with the rain and clouds late September, the month won't finish quite as hot as I expected. So that actually favors a bit more precipitation in January and February locally.

The 10-wettest Septembers in Albuquerque heading into cold ENSO winters are a strong dry signal here for winter. They have average 0.88 inches of winter precipitation - about 33% below average, around double the normal dry signal for La Nina. The wettest Septembers average 2.39 inches of rain though.  We're at 0.51". I don't think the rain arrives quite in time to make it by the end of September. A wet October would be welcome though - those are a strong signal for March fun.

[George001]

The ACE is going to probably end up over 200 this year when all is said and done. This hurricane season has been historic.

[raindancewx]

May not be apparent for a couple days or a few weeks even, but part of me thinks the subsurface must be warming up given the massive flip in the SOI in recent days. The subsurface trend flipping from cooling to warming also accompanied big SOI crashes last year, both times, in late Oct and mid-Feb.

The rain timing out here is right on time with my analogs though - 2017 had big rains late September in the SW. (9/27, 9/28, 9/30)  1974 had a big rain event around 10/6. Will probably be rainiest here 9/30-10/1. So it's in between the main analogs. The 10/1 timing also matches the recurring 42-48 day precipitation cycle that tends to show up here in the Summer, and then repeats through Spring.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
25 Sep 2021	1011.09	1011.45	-15.92	8.12	9.03
24 Sep 2021	1011.46	1012.20	-18.18	8.84	9.14
23 Sep 2021	1013.45	1012.85	-10.22	9.79	9.41
22 Sep 2021	1014.79	1012.45	0.12	10.53	9.64
21 Sep 2021	1015.81	1011.30	13.02	10.70	9.80
20 Sep 2021	1016.79	1013.10	8.14	10.38	9.73
19 Sep 2021	1017.61	1013.20	12.42	10.48	9.66
18 Sep 2021	1017.26	1012.55	14.20	10.52	9.37
17 Sep 2021	1016.61	1011.85	14.50	10.34	9.03
16 Sep 2021	1016.31	1012.35	9.75	9.74	8.78
15 Sep 2021	1016.76	1012.70	10.34	9.38	8.69
14 Sep 2021	1017.57	1012.75	14.86	9.17	8.68
13 Sep 2021	1018.34	1011.35	27.75	8.69	8.70
12 Sep 2021	1017.66	1011.15	24.90	7.61	8.67
11 Sep 2021	1015.55	1012.55	4.04	6.89	8.57
10 Sep 2021	1015.61	1013.50	-1.25	6.96	8.57
9 Sep 2021	1017.31	1013.70	7.67	7.35	8.60
8 Sep 2021	1016.73	1013.80	3.63	7.68	8.48
7 Sep 2021	1015.24	1014.00	-6.42	7.70	8.45
6 Sep 2021	1015.25	1013.20	-1.60	7.84	8.52
5 Sep 2021	1015.88	1011.10	14.62	7.60	8.42
4 Sep 2021	1015.82	1010.50	17.83	6.51	8.05
3 Sep 2021	1014.85	1010.85	9.99	5.31	7.61
2 Sep 2021	1014.58	1011.80	2.74	4.63	7.27
1 Sep 2021	1015.79	1011.95	9.03	4.76	7.09

[StormchaserChuck!]

96, yeah there must be a dimension in hell or something (18 cuouts/disconnects)

[StormchaserChuck!]

[StormchaserChuck!]

We're going to get a real strong -PDO this Winter. 

Analogs

2020-21 -PDO

2019-20 -PDO

2014-15 +PDO*preceded 4months rise of 2015 El Nino. 

2012-13 -PDO

2011-12 Strong -PDO, almost -3 in Nov 2011

2010-11 -PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We're going to get a real strong -PDO this Winter. 

Analogs

2020-21 -PDO

2019-20 -PDO

2014-15 +PDO*preceded 4months rise of 2015 El Nino. 

2012-13 -PDO

2011-12 Strong -PDO, almost -3 in Nov 2011

2010-11 -PDO

Why do you have 2014-2015 listed as an analog?

[StormchaserChuck!]

I guess the data goes downhill from 2013on. 

I also noticed when satellite data started in 1948, before then there was more +PDO,by like a 1.0 difference. There was another PDO dataset which is no longer listed. 

[raindancewx]

This is the good PDO date - the JISAO/Nate Mantua method.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

[StormchaserChuck!]

I'm out of upload space. This is the Winter's of the 1940s, before satilite. 8 Winter's.

^Jan-Mar 1948,49,50,51 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are talking about a very negative PDO, 2014-2015 was very positive...that year was el nino, this is la nina, so you lost me on that. Believe me, I would be perfectly fine if things played out like that, though...

[raindancewx]

With the SOI back down to +8 for the past 30-days, the closest (tentative) matches for July-Sept have changed a fair bit from what I expected earlier (+10 Sept).

1931, 1938, 1950, 1974, 1981, 1996. Not super different looking from what the CFS shows for the month. I suspect the CFS will change it's tune quite a bit for October by 9/30 though. I'm pretty skeptical of the CFS look though. SOI could also still change quite a bit by the end of the month.

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are talking about a very negative PDO, 2014-2015 was very positive...that year was el nino, this is la nina, so you lost me on that. Believe me, I would be perfectly fine if things played out like that, though...

Although it was El Nino the PDO was a greater SD before the 2015 El Nino.. 

https://ibb.co/VQtRhc6

and then when the super El Nino started, it actually started to wane/shift -PDO a little

https://ibb.co/ZXBZ3sr

[raindancewx]

Pending the exact timing of the heavy rain for New Mexico & Texas on 9/30-10/1, the strong Jun-Aug 1974 match to June-Aug 2021 for precipitation looks like it will continue into September 2021.

Will be curious to see how that goes going forward, since the Summer was also similar to Jun-Aug 2017, which was very dry here in winter, while 1974 was very wet. I'm including 1961 as an analog as it is almost like a split the difference between 1974 and 2017 for winter. Both 1974 and 2017 are weak La Ninas following La Ninas with the QBO in the right phase. 

I find low solar activity yields different precipitation patterns in Spring/Fall then high solar activity nationally. We're getting real close to my threshold for "high solar" in individual months now, with ~50 sunspots looking likely for September, most since 2016 for a single month. For the Southwest, high solar is a pretty strong wet signal in March. But you need around 55 sunspots annualized for the "high" solar activity to show I find. Still only at about 25 annualized if September does finish around 50. Odds of getting above the high solar threshold are increasing though.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Although it was El Nino the PDO was a greater SD before the 2015 El Nino.. 

https://ibb.co/VQtRhc6

and then when the super El Nino started, it actually started to wane/shift -PDO a little

https://ibb.co/ZXBZ3sr

Hey, I am def not rooting against that analog...lol Cosgrove was mentioning it last night.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Pretty much the end of this La Nina, this is going to propagate east, and that's going to be the end, warming into the Spring. Surface may still cool, but the subsurface won't cool west of this anymore. Also, no consistency. March-May is Neutral. (these guys have frozen my page 8 diffeernt times, before I can press send and stuff  I hate that)

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Nino 3.4 (both hemisphere's) and NAO correlation, whole year 20-year period of +ACE, -ACE and Neutral dataset

high ACE https://ibb.co/8sXkRmG

low ACE https://ibb.co/j4WnbzY

Neutral https://ibb.co/xjNrBR4

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pretty much the end of this La Nina, this is going to propagate east, and that's going to be the end, warming into the Spring. Surface may still cool, but the subsurface won't cool west of this anymore. Also, no consistency. March-May is Neutral. (these guys have frozen my page 8 diffeernt times, before I can press send and stuff  I hate that)

 

So this should prevent it from going modoki.

[raindancewx]

This is my take on why this event won't catch up or surpass last year at the surface. In 2017, Nino 3.4 was well behind the prior year cold. Unlike this year though, it was much colder y/y in Nino 1.2 and 3 by this time. We're running warmer each week in all zones for at least two months now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is my take on why this event won't catch up or surpass last year at the surface. In 2017, Nino 3.4 was well behind the prior year cold. Unlike this year though, it was much colder y/y in Nino 1.2 and 3 by this time. We're running warmer each week in all zones for at least two months now.

Yea, 2017 was solidly east based....this is more hybrid, like last year.