2021-2022 ENSO

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, the +IO is interesting. I dont really believe in the MJO. 

[raindancewx]

The surface observations are much warmer than last year in Nino 1.2, but also warmer in Nino 3, 3.4 and 4. Have to catch up to last year before we have any chance to surpass it.

 

Aug 2021 v. Aug 2020 at the surface

Nino 1.2: +0.76

Nino 3: +0.17

Nino 3.4: +0.14

Nino 4: +0.15

[raindancewx]

All months since March this year have at least resembled the 1961 look nationally, although the placement/extent of the cold matching 2021 has not been perfect.

You can see the Summer finished too cold in 1961 compared to this year. My view is you can't treat weak La Ninas in the old days like weak La Ninas today. They tend to be surrounded by warmer waters in the Pacific now. But the old cold-Neutrals years often had that. So that's why a lot of those years are working well as analogs right now.

Locally, there is something of a signal in the temperature matches for a very cold December followed by a much warmer late winter. The monsoon in my exact spot has not been strong, but it has been quite consistent for southern NM and Arizona this year. Those areas won't need any cold/extra moisture in winter to remain above average...so my guess is they won't be cold or wet. Here we've been dry with near average temps which is a more mixed signal. The hottest driest cold-ENSO Summers tend to be colder/wetter winters here (1954, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2020) while the wettest/coldest cold-ENSO Summers tend to be warmer/drier winters here (1933, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2017). Not quite sure what to do with a Summer with below average hot days and rain yet. Last year had ~88 days hit 90, with ~40% below average rain in Summer. This year is more like 25% below average rain. As of yesterday, only 55 days have hit 90 - fewest since 2008 (64 is average for a year).

[uncle W]

the winter of 61-62 wasn't great in NYC but a 6-10" snowstorm on Christmas eve made that winter acceptable,,,

[raindancewx]

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2
 25AUG2021     20.6 0.0     25.0-0.0     26.5-0.3     28.5-0.3
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3

 29JUL2020     20.1-1.2     24.7-0.8     26.3-0.8     28.4-0.5
 05AUG2020     19.8-1.3     24.6-0.7     26.3-0.7     28.4-0.4
 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5
 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4
 26AUG2020     20.0-0.6     24.2-0.8     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.2
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4

For this week, +1.4C in Nino 1.2, +1.1C in Nino 3, +0.7C in Nino 3.4, and even in Nino 4 compared to 2020. Last year, conditions were solidly La Nina by now. This is not that.

Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. You have some warm water below the surface at 160W and west. The waters below the rest of Nino 3.4 are somewhat cold but not incredibly. You also have some warmth way at depth which diminishes the totality of the cold signal quite a bit.

[raindancewx]

That bath water by Indonesia seems way more important to the global pattern at the moment than the weak little cold-Neutral look we have. Still a lot of light blue / white (-0.4C to +0.2C waters v. 1981-2010 averages) in the 120-170W, 5N-5S Nino 3.4 zone.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Cold water off of South America 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/soi_110w_drupal.gif 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2
 25AUG2021     20.6 0.0     25.0-0.0     26.5-0.3     28.5-0.3
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3

 29JUL2020     20.1-1.2     24.7-0.8     26.3-0.8     28.4-0.5
 05AUG2020     19.8-1.3     24.6-0.7     26.3-0.7     28.4-0.4
 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5
 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4
 26AUG2020     20.0-0.6     24.2-0.8     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.2
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4

For this week, +1.4C in Nino 1.2, +1.1C in Nino 3, +0.7C in Nino 3.4, and even in Nino 4 compared to 2020. Last year, conditions were solidly La Nina by now. This is not that.

Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. You have some warm water below the surface at 160W and west. The waters below the rest of Nino 3.4 are somewhat cold but not incredibly. You also have some warmth way at depth which diminishes the totality of the cold signal quite a bit.

Do you think this is a weaker nina than a year ago?

[raindancewx]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you think this is a weaker nina than a year ago?

Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

1955    -2.24
1973    -2.16
1988    -1.84
1975    -1.44
2010    -1.43
1999    -1.37
2007    -1.32
1998    -1.25
1964    -1.23
2020    -1.21

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

1955    -2.24
1973    -2.16
1988    -1.84
1975    -1.44
2010    -1.43
1999    -1.37
2007    -1.32
1998    -1.25
1964    -1.23
2020    -1.21

So ya wonder if this one tapers a bit for this winter?...

[StormchaserChuck!]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

1955    -2.24
1973    -2.16
1988    -1.84
1975    -1.44
2010    -1.43
1999    -1.37
2007    -1.32
1998    -1.25
1964    -1.23
2020    -1.21

It didn't feel like a La Nina last Winter. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nice -PNA evolution for the next 15 days. Look at this going into the Fall

[ORH_wxman]

4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It didn't feel like a La Nina last Winter. 

Esp in Dec/Jan....looked like El Nino with the southern/southeastern US having the lowest heights

 

[raindancewx]

PNA has never really correlated that well to December or Fall ENSO values, whether you use Nino 3.4 ssts like I do, MEI, ONI, SOI, whatever.

PNA correlation to Nino 3.4 December is 0.1 according to CPC. Very weak.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_dec.txt

[raindancewx]

La Nina?

La Not-a. Basically no meaningfully cold water in the 120-170W, 5N-5S zone yet.

[StormchaserChuck!]

That NPH is really interesting. +NPH and -3 cold water in South American SOI region.. almost seems like a fake lol. 

 

[raindancewx]

Since 1950, there is no ENSO event where Nino 3.4 has fallen by more than 1.0C from September to Dec-Feb. Keep your eyes on the September readings in Nino 3.4.

First few days are 26.5C on the weeklies (centered on 9/1). You need 26.0C in DJF just for a La Nina (-0.5C v. 1951-2010 average of 26.5C).

[StormchaserChuck!]

Real nice -PNA for next 15 days. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

La Nina-like,

[40/70 Benchmark]

So much for the cries of strong la nina...

[raindancewx]

[StormchaserChuck!]

That's kind of cool, I think we will warm up to around +0.0 in the Spring. 

[raindancewx]

The ENSO zones in 2021 are generally close each month to a blend of 1967, 2001, 2011. Not really expecting that to change overall. This isn't what I expect to happen in the winter regarding US weather, but I do think the event will look like this. I'm expecting what I would call "cannonically cold enough" La Nina conditions to last from about October-February, so may not be an official event.

[StormchaserChuck!]

[StormchaserChuck!]

A lot of La Nina conditions setting up, but subsurface is actually getting warmer in the +correlation zone. I wonder if we'll see a trend toward +PNA 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s SOI was strongly positive and models suggest a strongly positive period overall for the next 7-10+ days. That should help La Niña SST anomalies to return in Nino 3.4 by the end of the month most likely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s SOI was strongly positive and models suggest a strongly positive period overall for the next 7-10+ days. That should help La Niña SST anomalies to return in Nino 3.4 by the end of the month most likely.

Still convinced it peaks as moderate?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still convinced it peaks as moderate?

Yeah, I'm still going moderate (-1.0 to -1.4 ONI fall/winter peak). Are you still going weak? Going to be fun to follow!

[StormchaserChuck!]

tried to upload paint, but couldn't, attachments and stuff, I was going to point out the +PNA

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2
 25AUG2021     20.6 0.0     25.0-0.0     26.5-0.3     28.5-0.3
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3
 08SEP2021     20.7 0.2     24.6-0.3     26.4-0.4     28.5-0.3

 05AUG2020     19.8-1.3     24.6-0.7     26.3-0.7     28.4-0.4
 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5
 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4
 26AUG2020     20.0-0.6     24.2-0.8     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.2
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4
 09SEP2020     19.5-1.0     23.4-1.4     25.7-1.0     28.5-0.3
 

Nino 4 is as cool as last year at this time. Nino 3.4 is still running +0.7C for the same week. Nino 1.2/3 are both +1.2C for the same week. Last year, the La Nina was 25.58C in Dec-Feb. There are no ENSO events more than 1C colder than September in December-February since 1950 in Nino 3.4

I've been looking at the big IOD configuration by Indonesia a lot recently. You do have it this time of year in some legitimate La Ninas. But they almost always come after big El Nino years. So it is there in 1973 and 1998 and 2010 and 2016 to some extent. Much rarer to find it in a La Nina that is weaker and after a La Nina. But you kind of have it in 1974 and 2017. For now, those are my favored analogs, with both also showing similar heat waves in the West in June-July before switching much colder.

If you scroll up the page, I mentioned Carla in 1961. Look at the dates on the map - 9/9-9/15. Now look at the (albeit much weaker) system to hit Texas this week. The precipitation pattern for 1961 is a remarkably good match for Summer, and temps were close too. I'm still refining the years and weighting, but my tentative blend for winter is 1961-62, 1974-75, 2001-02, 2017-18, 2020-21, and I'm leaning toward double weighting 1974-75 and 2017-18. I do think the MJO pattern timing is off in that blend, the Sept blend looks more like Aug 2021.

Nate Mantua also sent out the August (JISAO) PDO today.  It was -1.12. For March-August, the six month average was -1.2. I find that Nino 1.2 in October runs counter March-August PDO values, the PDO moves toward Nino 1.2 So I am expecting the PDO to move more positively in the cold season. I'll be able to run my projections for the NAO and PDO for winter in a few weeks.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

[raindancewx]

The PDO was around -0.3 last Summer. At -1.4 in Jun-Aug 2021, lowest PDO in Summer since 2012 (-1.44). That's a major dry/warm signal for the South, that was not really there last year heading into winter.