StormchaserChuck! Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Powerful, Nina's going to even out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Secondary pulse in the strong trades near the dateline looks to becoming as the intraseasonal interference wanes going into March. Would expect some resurgence in the La Nina especially over the western ENSO regions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 I guess ENSO subsurface cold pool will strengthen until March 1st. Hard to do an El Nino after that, although there is the potential for a strong relative Kelvin wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I just looked at the long range data and the La Niña has strengthened yet again, especially in the central and western pacific, with 1.2 degrees Celsius below normal in regions 3.4 and 4. This La Niña was approaching high end weak/low end moderate levels as in mid Jan but the La Niña is now back to solidly moderate strength La Niña, this isn’t quite the borderline strong Nina it was during late fall/early winter, but this restrengthening could possibly be the start of a second La Niña in the spring and summer. From what I know about la ninas is they typically peak in late fall or early winter, so a restrengthening in the spring is quite unusual, with the only years I can find doing this being 1975 and 1955, which isn’t enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions. Also both these were weak events at the time (this La Niña is moderate and peaked borderline strong) and the climate is much different (warmer) than it was then, so the only conclusion I can draw from this is that what is happening right now is very unusual. I’m not sure what is going on, but my hypothesis is that this restrengthening is the start of what will be a double peak La Niña event, with the first peak being late fall/early winter, and the second and much stronger peak being next fall, potentially rivaling the strength of the record breaking 2010-2011 La Niña (I know it is considered just a regular strong Nina going by ONI, but this La Niña was extremely west based so ONI undersells the true strength of this La Niña. According to the Multivariate Enso Index, which captures all regions of the pacific, this was the strongest Nina on record). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 It looks like CPC has been moving to new websites for the 1991-2020 base period for ENSO stuff. I realized this today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for This is the new site for weekly data. The old one said "8110" Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 Here is the new location for the monthly data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii January Data: Nino 1.2: 23.59C Nino 3: 25.07C Nino 3.4: 25.55C Nino 4: 27.25C Anyway, top matches to January 2021. February 1965 is actually a pretty similar looking month to February 2021. Of these years, most are split in a warm South/East, cold North/West look for March. That said, March 1965 is stupid cold, and March 2012 is stupid hot nationally. Jan Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nin 34 Nino 4 Match 2021 23.59 25.07 25.55 27.25 0.00 1955 23.72 24.80 25.61 27.41 0.62 1963 23.72 24.85 25.77 27.45 0.77 1965 23.87 24.70 25.66 27.23 0.78 1967 23.53 24.93 25.88 27.60 0.88 2001 23.94 25.24 25.81 27.43 0.96 2012 24.38 25.09 25.67 27.30 0.98 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 Still west-based. The La Nina is still weakening on net too at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 New CPC baseline for La Nina / El Nino is super warm mid-year. Changes from 1951-2010 averages in Nino 3.4 to 1991-2020 averages by month are below. Jan 26.45 / 26.55 (+0.10) Feb 26.65 / 26.76 (+0.11) Mar 27.13 / 27.29 (+0.16) Apr 27.55 / 27.83 (+0.28) May 27.67 / 27.94 (+0.27) Jun 27.47 / 27.73 (+0.26) Jul 27.04 / 27.29 (+0.25) Aug 26.65 / 26.86 (+0.21) Sep 26.54 / 26.72 (+0.18) Oct 26.50 / 26.72 (+0.22) Nov 26.49 / 26.70 (+0.21) Dec 26.45 / 26.60 (+0.15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Top SOI Matches for Dec-Feb: Year Dec Jan Feb 1938 12.5 16.5 7.2 1942 12.5 8.8 10.1 1973 15.6 20.3 16.0 1975 17.6 11.2 12.6 1988 9.5 12.7 8.5 1998 11.7 14.7 7.1 2020 16.6 15.9 11.3 February 1989 is similarly cold nationally to this year. That's the March to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 The Canadian has the La Nina weaker than before near Peru in the coming months. Hangs on well in Nino 4, then re-develops to a weak La Nina basin wide later in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 6 hours ago, raindancewx said: The Canadian has the La Nina weaker than before near Peru in the coming months. Hangs on well in Nino 4, then re-develops to a weak La Nina basin wide later in 2021. looks like next winter will be a neutral? I think most of the snow season is done on the east coast, so just looking back on it, looks like above normal snowfall occurred Philly on north while it was below normal Baltimore on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 The sub-subsurface waters warmed to -0.83 for February 2021. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Pretty decent rebound this week for Nino 1.2, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4. Winter likely finished around 25.7C in Nino 3.4 again, given 25.8C or so in Nino 3.4 for February. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09DEC2020 22.4-0.0 24.3-0.9 25.4-1.3 27.7-0.9 16DEC2020 22.0-0.7 24.3-0.9 25.6-1.0 27.8-0.8 23DEC2020 22.1-1.0 24.5-0.8 25.7-1.0 27.6-0.9 30DEC2020 22.2-1.3 24.4-1.0 25.4-1.2 27.3-1.2 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 Analogs They went 3 same - 1 neutral - 3 different later in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 I cant really find a time where we had almost +5c anomaly in the western subsurface NOW Here are the Strong Nino's though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Pretty interesting looking winter globally for SST patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 The La Nina finished above 25.5C for winter overall. Nino 4 never dropped below 27.0C on the monthly data either. https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data 25.57C in DJF for 2020-21 25.72C in DJF in 2017-18 25.76C in DJF in 2011-12 The 2010-11 La Nina is still the last DJF to fall below 25.5C overall, it was 25.2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Feb 1.2 3 3.4 4 Match 2021 25.24 25.70 25.71 27.17 0.00 1951 25.19 25.65 25.71 27.09 0.18 1955 24.97 25.70 25.81 27.11 0.43 1956 24.90 25.70 25.76 27.01 0.55 2009 25.42 25.84 25.96 27.35 0.75 2011 25.94 25.63 25.64 27.15 0.86 1963 25.28 25.79 26.22 27.48 0.95 Top matches for February. The look for March is cold North, warm South when the six are blended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 A lot of times in La Ninas, the Marches that end up fairly cold nationally precede El Ninos the following winter. Given that the SOI has been predominantly negative (El Nino-like) for almost two weeks now, really need to see if the SOI can sustain negative. March SOI is currently -6.1 almost 1/4 through March. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2021 1011.35 1007.95 -3.40 7.18 13.28 6 Mar 2021 1011.64 1008.10 -2.73 7.57 13.49 5 Mar 2021 1010.81 1008.15 -6.94 8.29 13.65 4 Mar 2021 1010.79 1008.45 -8.47 9.13 13.82 3 Mar 2021 1011.54 1008.70 -6.08 9.71 13.98 2 Mar 2021 1011.34 1008.65 -6.80 10.05 14.18 1 Mar 2021 1009.94 1007.60 -8.47 10.48 14.43 28 Feb 2021 1009.96 1006.35 -5.43 10.99 14.76 27 Feb 2021 1009.84 1004.80 1.44 11.47 15.13 26 Feb 2021 1007.90 1005.15 -9.56 12.12 15.33 25 Feb 2021 1008.06 1006.40 -14.79 13.45 15.45 24 Feb 2021 1010.22 1006.20 -3.46 14.79 15.65 Since 1990, cold-ENSO winters with a -SOI in March are 4/4 in going to El Ninos: 1996-97 to 1997-98, 2001-02 to 2002-03, 2008-09 to 2009-10, 2013-14 to 2014-15. The overall track-record from 1931 to 2019, if you include borderline El Ninos 1990-91 and 1979-80, is 10 of 18 cold-ENSO years with a -SOI in March go to El Nino or near-El Nino conditions the next winter. Cold ENSO (La Nina or cold-Neutral) winters with a -4 to -8 SOI in March: 2001-02 (-6, El Nino followed) 1996-97 (-7, El Nino followed) 1989-90 (-8, near-El Nino followed) 1983-84 (-6.5, La Nina followed, but 1984-85 is a very wet/cold winter in the SW) 1950-51 (-5.5, El Nino followed) 1937-38 (-4, La Nina followed, but 1938-39 is a very cold winter in the SW) Other Recent Cold ENSO, but -SOI Marches: 2013-14 (-12, El Nino followed) 2008-09 (-1, El Nino followed) 1985-86 (-0.3, El Nino followed) 1984-85 (-3, Neutral followed) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 European has been showing La Nina ending in March. Still looks like that might be right. It's certainly interesting seeing Nino 1.2 and 3 warmer than 3.4 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 On Tropical Tidbits, none of the four Nino zones are currently cold enough to be a La Nina. This is what has happened the past week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 MJO related interference with the background state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 I'm kind of surprised we aren't shifting gears here March into early April, 15-day GFS has -PNA pattern into early April too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 SOI is still very negative for March. Hanging out at -5 or so for 3/1-3/12. Cold is shrinking below the surface as it pushes toward the surface. Pretty warm to 150W or so now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 This GOA Low is sometimes associated with modeling of western subsurface warm pool moving east, to the transition central area (at this time of year). Otherwise, the Aleutian ridge might just downward(latitude)-propel cold ENSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 In the beginning part of an underperforming solar cycle-ascension phase, we favor more La Nina's 2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 I don't see how we don't go into Neutral or El Nino, 95% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 Some real fast warming in the eastern zones now. SOI has been predominantly negative for three weeks now too. Some hints of the subtropical jet starting to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 More than half way through March now. SOI is still around -4 month to date. SOI needs to be near +5 the rest of the month just to get back to 0 for March. There aren't really any good SOI matches for +16 January, +11 February, -4 March since 1931. Will be curious to see how it changes by 3/31. The top matches for winter in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1.2 imply an El Nino is pretty likely next year. DJF Nino4 Nino34 Nino3 Nino12 2020 27.32 25.57 25.05 23.71 0.00 1964 27.20 25.69 24.76 23.71 0.53 1950 27.15 25.41 24.86 23.67 0.55 1954 27.27 25.56 24.73 23.34 0.75 1984 27.59 25.55 24.62 23.64 0.78 2000 27.46 25.87 25.31 23.80 0.80 1962 27.56 25.89 24.91 23.57 0.83 This La Nina wasn't very cold in the eastern zones in the winter. The below lists are all years within 0.2C of observed SSTs in Dec-Feb. Since Nino 3 was only -0.5C or so against 1951-2010, there are far more years close to its temperatures than in Nino 3.4 or 4, which were much colder compared to their averages. Structurally, the years that were closest, within 0.2C in 3-4 of the four Nino zones in winter were 1950-51, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2011-12. The blend of the four years would give you a weak El Nino in fall, since 2012 almost became an El Nino. But then a rapid decay in winter. 1951-52 would be classified as a Neutral today anyway with the warmer Nino 3.4 baseline. 1996-97 is a cold Neutral that rapidly started to warm in Nino 1.2 in February/March. Top Matches for Nino 4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 2000, 2008, 2011. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 2009. Neutrals: 2001, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3.4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1984, 1995, 2011, 2017. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2018 Neutrals: 1985, 1996, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1986, 2006, 2009 Neutrals: 1962, 1967, 1981, 1996, 2012, 2013 La Ninas: 1975, 1984 Top Matches Nino 1.2: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1984, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997, 2002 Neutrals: 1959, 1962, 1967, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2013 La Ninas: 2000, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 PDO update via Nate Mantua: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z -0.54 First time the PDO has been negative for winter in a while. Trend is definitely down in recent winters: 2014-15: +2.4 2015-16: +1.4 2016-17: +0.9 2017-18: +0.5 2018-19: +0.5 2019-20: +0.0 2020-21: -0.5 Most negative winter PDO since 2011-12 (-1.3). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 I don't see how we don't shift into +ENSO at this point. I guess the transition to occur by June or July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 No Jamstec update yet. Looks like they got hacked? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/j/about/press_release/20210318_2/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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