BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Almost at 3” of new snow already. Still snowing but band slightly south last few frames. Should move back north next few hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Just was out walking the dogs and it’s practically still. One thing I know about getting lake effect snow in Northern Monroe is that it MUST NOT be windy. Anything above 15mph and you can kiss it goodbye. So we have this one variable working in our favor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Be nice to get a re-run of the epic LES stretch we had in December 2010 sometime. Those events had to be nowcasted the whole time as evident by the escalation and spread in the advisories and warnings that were issued. BGM racked up over 20" in that stretch and the winter of 2010-11 was 6th snowiest all time at BGM with 117.3. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Be nice to get a re-run of the epic LES stretch we had in December 2010 sometime. Those events had to be nowcasted the whole time as evident by the escalation and spread in the advisories and warnings that were issued. BGM racked up over 20" in that stretch and the winter of 2010-11 was 6th snowiest all time at BGM with 117.3. Yeah that was great year for central ny. Also a big event in buffalo 42” in 3 days over central Erie county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just was out walking the dogs and it’s practically still. One thing I know about getting lake effect snow in Northern Monroe is that it MUST NOT be windy. Anything above 15mph and you can kiss it goodbye. So we have this one variable working in our favor. I think you want relatively light winds In all big les events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 We can't even get snow on a WNW-NW wind flow anymore as it seems to wanna form over Wayne county and head SE from there which is a big change from years past. Definitely time to start looking and searching for somewhere I can get my snow fix cause around here just isn't cutting it anymore unfortunately! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think you want relatively light winds In all big les events. Really? I feel like the epic east end events are usually driven by big closed LP’s over Canada that have strong SW winds. Of course the winds go dead within the band. But I defer to your knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I might have to take a drive down to the Cuse and chill for a while as I believe rates are going to increase down there substantially later this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Be nice to get a re-run of the epic LES stretch we had in December 2010 sometime. Those events had to be nowcasted the whole time as evident by the escalation and spread in the advisories and warnings that were issued. BGM racked up over 20" in that stretch and the winter of 2010-11 was 6th snowiest all time at BGM with 117.3. Was just checking out the lake effect archives for the winter of 2010-2011 earlier today, that's what keeps me going lol Had some monster events.. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 South shore looks like it's about to get smoked. Odds of a LESW for Monroe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We can't even get snow on a WNW-NW wind flow anymore as it seems to wanna form over Wayne county and head SE from there which is a big change from years past. Definitely time to start looking and searching for somewhere I can get my snow fix cause around here just isn't cutting it anymore unfortunately! Buffalo gets more lake effect snow on a NW wind with a lake 80% frozen now than we do. Currently a steady light snow with some bigger dendrites mixed in. I thought you were going to Maine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I do like the fact the echos are not moving super fast. Light winds are a good for south shore. Radar representation looks good so far. Thats a impressive band drifting south. No other models show this lake band like this. Rgem looks good for event to far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: South shore looks like it's about to get smoked. Odds of a LESW for Monroe? Almost looks like it’s getting shunted east the last few frames. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Buffalo gets more lake effect snow on a NW wind with a lake 80% frozen now than we do. Currently a steady light snow with some bigger dendrites mixed in. I thought you were going to Maine? Yeah, I already tried ME and i never worked out especially considering I lived right on the Ocean and it wouldn't begin to snow along the Coast until Mid-December into January so thats a no go for me again but perhaps VT somewhere above 2500' ASL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Wind shift for Erie county folks is just sw of London Ontario. Coming with several waves of moisture. Going to be a fun night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Was just checking out the lake effect archives for the winter of 2010-2011 earlier today, that's what keeps me going lol Had some monster events.. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C Checked it out. Looks like it happened with a retrograding low over Quebec. We need a coastal storm to actually make it far enough north and retrograde though! Oh, and some Arctic air! @Syrmax and @LakeEffectKing, do you guys know how well the Bayberry, Bville, Clay area did with this one? I saw Syracuse got 40 to 60 inches, but then Phoenix got 22 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Still trying to figure out why Oswego isn't under any flags, not that it matters much anyway? I'm also trying to figure out why the band just to the North of KROC is dropping Southward so fast as winds across the lake are still W-WNW, weird I tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Still trying to figure out why Oswego isn't under any flags, not that it matters much anyway? I'm also trying to figure out why the band just to the North of KROC is dropping Southward so fast as winds across the lake are still W-WNW, weird I tell ya! Why would Oswego county be under anything? Only a few inches forecasted? Are those returns on radar dropping good snow there? With your experience of these events, is this going to be a general widespread light lake effect snow event with the heavier band embedded in it, or it going to be widespread at first, and then everything disappears except for the one solid band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Checked it out. Looks like it happened with a retrograding low over Quebec. We need a coastal storm to actually make it far enough north and retrograde though! Oh, and some Arctic air! @Syrmax and @LakeEffectKing, do you guys know how well the Bayberry, Bville, Clay area did with this one? I saw Syracuse got 40 to 60 inches, but then Phoenix got 22 inches. I remember it well..2.5 days, got 42". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Because I think the Southern sections of the county will see at least advisory totals as its already snowing moderately here with just a spray occurring atm with lots more to follow, but like I said it really doesn't matter either way as the night CNY-WX and I got close to 15", I don't even think there was an adv posted unless I'm mistaken. Ppl don't seem to understand that models cant predict the axact location of where a band is going to form or move to for that matter as guidance can only do so much. I've never, in my 20yrs of living here, seen a LES band the way the NWS showed in their snow graphics but maybe this will be a first, lol, who really knows right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wind shift for Erie county folks is just sw of London Ontario. Coming with several waves of moisture. Going to be a fun night. Like KBUF map. Should setup back over you BW next hour or two and just camp out there from 20A down to Springville through tomorrow. Easy foot totals. Should get a few inches of scraps up here. Just enjoying the constant on off snow we’ve been having past few days. Got the winter feel! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Rgem ftw!! Lake snow warning with Lake Erie frozen gotta love it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Jackpot over @lakeeffectkid383 new house 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Because I think the Southern sections of the county will see at least advisory totals as its already snowing moderately here with just a spray occurring atm with lots more to follow, but like I said it really doesn't matter either way as the night CNY-WX and I got close to 15", I don't even think there was an adv posted unless I'm mistaken. Ppl don't seem to understand that models cant predict the axact location of where a band is going to form or move to for that matter as guidance can only do so much. I've never, in my 20yrs of living here, seen a LES band the way the NWS showed in their snow graphics but maybe this will be a first, lol, who really knows right? I believe it's common for the band to end up farther north than models are projecting? But that's when there is a more westerly component to a WNW flow. I have noticed during my short time here that if there is more of a Northerly component to the WNW flow, the best snows set up JUST west of Bville to Liverpool and we get snow showers. Who knows...with my limited experience of Lake Effect snow around here, I guess I'll see how this one plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Like KBUF map. Should setup back over you BW next hour or two and just camp out there from 20A down to Springville through tomorrow. Easy foot totals. Should get a few inches of scraps up here. Just enjoying the constant on off snow we’ve been having past few days. Got the winter feel! I’m thinking the band is back here around midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Every model has its own biases but I don't know what the RGEM's are. Its a great model for LE but its not infallible either, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Looks like there is a nice little band forming over Eastern Wayne/Northern Cayuga headed this way: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Unfortunately, I think thats headed for Syracuse, but I may be wrong, either way we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Every degree counts during a LES event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Unfortunately, I think thats headed for Syracuse, but I may be wrong, either way we'll see! Yeah, it may JUST miss to the SW with me in between the 2 areas of green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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