BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Man, that gradient. I could get 2" or 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 4-7" here. Consistent light snow outside now, starting to stick. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Big difference in ROC metro from previous maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 And you know what we get TUG, NADA, lol, but at least we'en getting used to the constant snow hole thats been over us for the past couple weeks now and perhaps more, lol. Our time will come but not this yr I don't think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've never seen that before. LOL It is to account for the @TugHillMatt local effect. They're onto it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Really hoping the lake produces here...love lake effect... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Pretty conservative roll out from BGM. I will go out on a limb and say this map will look much different by tomorrow as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Man, that gradient. I could get 2" or 8". It’s worse that. 90 percent chance of a dusting. 8 percent chance of 2”. 2% chance of 8” or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 The 12z WRFs are hinting at a Cayuga Lake enhanced finger band potentially hitting down here. Meanwhile, the 18z NAM 3k shows the main LO band stretching all the way to Sullivan County in the southwestern Catskills. With upstream connections in play, there definitely going to be some nowcasting adjustments for this one. Nam 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: And you know what we get TUG, NADA, lol, but at least we'en getting used to the constant snow hole thats been over us for the past couple weeks now and perhaps more, lol. Our time will come but not this yr I don't think! 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: It is to account for the @TugHillMatt local effect. They're onto it. I'm just spent. Seriously. Getting missed in every direction. Just discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 A fresh inch out there already. Just went over 80" on the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 18Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Looks like they are riding the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Erie is on fire despite 80% ice coverage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Outside of the obvious forcefield, why does the band bend southward? If it didn't do that, More of Onondaga county would be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Rgem has ratios wrong according to precip. Only showing 15 to 1 ratios. Probably be 20 25 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Radar really firing up...nice sign. Could be a nice surprise with 20:1+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Me: I’m excited. Also Me: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 18Z RGEM That would be perfect! Just under a foot in Irondequoit. Possible. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 IF this happens as modeled on the RGEM I’m so pumped because it’s a daytime blitzing. So many events have been overnight this season. Although the Village of Skaneateles may not take too kindly to daytime Jeb Walks with obvious IPAs in hand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Wow that 18z RGEM run was juiced! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Wow that 18z RGEM run was juiced! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 I got a good feeling about this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wow that 18z RGEM run was juiced! Amazing- a couple towns over going to get smoked and shaft zone in NW Onondaga. Not buying it off Ontario. How the F*** can it nail down a band, nonetheless a band with a curvature?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 18Z RGEM It’s consistent, I’ll give it that for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Through this evening, an approaching mid-level trough and cooling temperatures aloft will result in some lake effect snow showers developing across Western New York. This activity will be disorganized, but there is a potential for heavier snow showers to lower visibility below a half mile producing a quick inch or two of snow through 9 p.m. Some mesoscale guidance captures this, showing mobile bands with low confidence in band placement. A mid level trough will move east across the Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing cold air to deepen with time. Inversion heights are initially quite shallow through the first half of tonight. The approach of a mid level shortwave and associated H7 cold pool and deeper moisture will then allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 10K feet briefly on Saturday, before inversion heights lower again by Saturday evening. Off Lake Ontario... A few brief bursts of snow showers will develop through the first half of tonight southeast of the lake, but these will likely remain disorganized through most of the night given the relatively low inversion heights. A band of lake effect snow should then become better organized late tonight and especially Saturday morning across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties as a convergence zone strengthens along the south shore of the lake. The Canadian GEM suggests a well defined upstream connection to Georgian Bay will develop during this time frame, aiding in organizing and strengthening the band. The band of snow will then likely become less organized during the afternoon given the higher sun angle at this time of year forcing more diurnal mixing, which tends to break up lake effect into cellular convection. Following the GEM, there is a decent likelihood of low end warning criteria snowfall in a few locations from Wayne to Cayuga County where bands persist the longest. Expect totals of 6-9 inches in the most persistent bands, with most of that falling late tonight through the first half of Saturday. Farther west in Monroe County, expect the most persistent snow to fall late tonight through Saturday morning along the Route 104 corridor, with 3-5 inches possible in persistent bands from Hilton and Greece to Webster, with much lower amounts farther south. With this in mind, converted the Watch to an Advisory for Monroe County. Farther west, a band of snow with origins from the main body of Lake Huron may bring a few inches of snow in narrow bands across portions of Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, possibly clipping the northeast corner of Erie County. This would mostly fall later tonight through Saturday morning. Off Lake Erie... There is a substantial amount of ice cover across most of the lake, but the latest visible satellite imagery from a few days ago still showed a large enough area of open water and thin/broken ice to the south and southeast of Long Point to support a lake response. High resolution model guidance suggests periods of lake effect snow and upslope snow will develop this evening, and continue off and on through Saturday from the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County southward to the Chautauqua Ridge. The Canadian GEM tries to bring lake effect snow farther north towards Buffalo late tonight through Saturday morning, but this seems too far north given the upper level pattern. The one caveat, ice cover on Lake Erie can sometimes result in lake effect snow developing farther north than would be expected for a given wind direction, as ice cover essentially changes the effective shape and orientation of the lake. For now went with a few inches of accumulation up to the Buffalo Southtowns tonight through Saturday. Farther south, totals of 4-6 inches in the most persistent bands appear likely tonight through Saturday, and with that in mind issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. The higher amounts will focus across the higher terrain. Saturday night the lake effect snow will gradually diminish and end east of Lake Erie. Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow may re-organized for awhile overnight as land breeze circulations intensify and increase convergence along the south shore of the lake. This may produce a few more inches of snow, especially near and just east of Irondequoit Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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