wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Keeping some hope alive lol Ensemble member #2 seems like most likely scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 I'll be in Florida, book a big storm. Just hoping my flights are smooth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 GFS upgrade is still scheduled for March 17th, per latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Lock it in! Would put me over 100" for the season. I need 4.3" to get to 100". I think we make it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 If you think spring is coming. THINK AGAIN. Latest CFS is showing cold/cool temperature for GL for April and May. Lock it in! No spring this year folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 8 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! You booked a trip the second week of March, I mean that has spring skiing written all over it from the get go. Enjoy the the aspects of spring skiing for what they are. I'm heading out Wednesday when it hits 60 and I couldn't be more excited. The base is amazing, most places are 100% open, it's perfect spring ski conditions. Get after it, have fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: New map I'm in Rochester tonight. Had to get away from the Jonah...;) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: New map 6-8 inches is the forecast and not even an advisory. Has to be a joke right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: You booked a trip the second week of March, I mean that has spring skiing written all over it from the get go. Enjoy the the aspects of spring skiing for what they are. I'm heading out Wednesday when it hits 60 and I couldn't be more excited. The base is amazing, most places are 100% open, it's perfect spring ski conditions. Get after it, have fun! I hear ya. Thanks for the pep talk (was it that?lol). It’s more the rain I’m concerned about. Base is 18-40”, so it SHOULD survive. It’s just amusing that THIS forecast has literally been a lock for 3 weeks when a decent forecast has difficulty surviving a single 6 hour iteration. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I hear ya. Thanks for the pep talk (was it that?lol). It’s more the rain I’m concerned about. Base is 18-40”, so it SHOULD survive. It’s just amusing that THIS forecast has literally been a lock for 3 weeks when a decent forecast has difficulty surviving a single 6 hour iteration. Lol. It was definitely a bit of a pep talk. It's hard to shift gears and stop focusing on POW days and big storms but the time has come. The base is very solid and I think a lot of places will be open into mid April. Rain definitely sucks, but the few rain chances on the horizon look fairly transient so hopefully not too bad. Spring skiing definitely has its perks, no goggle issues or goggles in general, less layers, more lift beers and parking lot tailgating, soft slushy moguls you can just bomb through, bright sunshine and warm air on your face, etc etc. I dunno, Spring skiing is my favorite thing next to a big pow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: 6-8 inches is the forecast and not even an advisory. Has to be a joke right? Was wondering the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Good thing it will change next run haha. Gfs was the epitome of our synoptic season..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: 6-8 inches is the forecast and not even an advisory. Has to be a joke right? They mention it’s a low confidence setup and has a high fluff factor if it pans out which limits impact. Couple that with high sun angles limiting any real road impacts and I think it’s probably not worth riling people up. Does anyone really think they are getting 6-8”? That would tie me for the biggest event of the season. I’m not seeing it with strong winds and a cap around 5k. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 April and May cold sucks but lets not pretend its winter type cold. Its 44F and rain in April (average high in the 50s for most) and May is 50s and rain (average high quickly getting into upper 60s and lower 70s) Toronto averages 2" of snow in April and in all my years living in the GTA only two April storms stick in my mind. April 2003 sleet storm and April 2018 Winter Storm. That 2018 storm was a rare event for me where I genuinely got excited haha. 3-4" of snow/sleet and hours of freezing rain causing an ice storm. Most April snow events are 33F and wet snow at night that accumulates 0.5" a few times throughout the month and its gone by 10am with clouds and 41F. Those events I couldnt care less about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Para for the 13th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Gfs squashes it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Euro was a little sloppy and weak precipitation wise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: They mention it’s a low confidence setup and has a high fluff factor if it pans out which limits impact. Couple that with high sun angles limiting any real road impacts and I think it’s probably not worth riling people up. Does anyone really think they are getting 6-8”? That would tie me for the biggest event of the season. I’m not seeing it with strong winds and a cap around 5k. One can only hope for a late season surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Just started lightly snowing here, 25°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Looking at the models and seeing the best snows setting up YET AGAIN from the hills just south of Syracuse to just north of Binghamton makes me . Still puzzled on Syracuse's seasonal average. Everything goes north and south. I keep saying it's just a blip, but it's been the same CRAP the two winters I've been here. One event after another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looking at the models and seeing the best snows setting up YET AGAIN from the hills just south of Syracuse to just north of Binghamton makes me . Still puzzled on Syracuse's seasonal average. Everything goes north and south. I keep saying it's just a blip, but it's been the same CRAP the two winters I've been here. One event after another. Yeah, I’m thinking this could be another finger lakes hit. As Delta mentioned, the winds are too strong; especially for the lake plain. Need a little elevation to make this one work. You’ll notice Tim ain’t even here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Solid little band in northern Oswego, fresh covering.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Looking at the models and seeing the best snows setting up YET AGAIN from the hills just south of Syracuse to just north of Binghamton makes me . Still puzzled on Syracuse's seasonal average. Everything goes north and south. I keep saying it's just a blip, but it's been the same CRAP the two winters I've been here. One event after another. It’s a f***ing mystery wrapped up in an enigma...makes no F”ING sense. There are no advisories or anything so if it snows more than 6”, my legal team will be getting involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: It’s a f***ing mystery wrapped up in an enigma...makes no F”ING sense. There are no advisories or anything so if it snows more than 6”, my legal team will be getting involved. lol You can see how on radar that band that was working south from Oswego county disappeared and then fired up once it skipped over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Been getting moderate to at times heavier bursts of snow since 9. Could make it to an inch by 10. Beautiful fluffers coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Daily dose of the GEFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Clipper like system day 7/8 on the euro..D10 cutter that looks to be transferring verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 Next Weds/thursday look very warm. Will be lots of 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 End of EPS and GEFS look like a brief arctic shot. I would say the 17-21 should be below normal with a chance of a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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