wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 European snow to rain mid month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Gfs misses us with the heaviest off to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Curious if that's up at the airport on the hilltop or downtown. Downtown BGM and along 81/17 they seem to get waaaay less. The KBGM Airport is the official measuring station which is on a 1630ft hill. The city is like 8 miles south and about 900ft ASL, and averages between to 65-70" I believe, which would be about 80-85% of what the airport receives. The 730ft of extra elevation is definitely the biggest contributing factor to the disparity, but those 8 miles further north also tend to put the airport in a more favorable trajectory down wind of Cayuga Lake under NW Flow LES. Over the course of an average winter, I'd say we get about 6-10" of bonus snow from lake enhancement off Cayuga Lake that the river valley to the south largely misses out on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: The KBGM Airport is the official measuring station which is on a 1630ft hill. The city is like 8 miles south and about 900ft ASL, and averages between to 65-70" I believe, which would be about 80-85% of what the airport receives. The 730ft of extra elevation is definitely the biggest contributing factor to the disparity, but those 8 miles further north also tend to put the airport in a more favorable trajectory down wind of Cayuga Lake under NW Flow LES. Over the course of an average winter, I'd say we get about 6-10" of bonus snow from lake enhancement off Cayuga Lake that the river valley to the south largely misses out on. Thanks for this great summary of your local climate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs misses us with the heaviest off to the south.. 12z Gfs is pretty much suppressed during this time frame with just some rain over the SE.. Wether or not winter is over is ytd lol No guarantee we hit on any synoptic systems even though I believe we will be in and out of "colder" weather.. GEFS members through the D9/10 system have several scenarios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 NWS going to do away with advisories and Special weather statements by 2024. “The public gets confused” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024 The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is based on results of extensive social science research with partners and the public, which documented significant confusion with current NWS headline terms. This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards. This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and response to) these hazards. The major changes are as follows: - All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are today. - Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Haha great timing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Do they lower the criteria for a warning? Or does a 3"-6"/4"-8" no longer have headlines lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Do they lower the criteria for a warning? Or does a 3"-6"/4"-8" no longer have headlines lol My questions too. Someone mentioned that it could be due to liability. In some countries, cancellations are directly tied to these products. sounds as if they are going to warnings or nothing (other than a vague text product nobody will read). Maybe it’ll be as great as their new radar roll-out! Lol. Just kidding. They do a good job for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Euro was weak sauce day 9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued, also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where, When, Impacts" format. The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2021 Author Share Posted March 4, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024 The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is based on results of extensive social science research with partners and the public, which documented significant confusion with current NWS headline terms. This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards. This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and response to) these hazards. The major changes are as follows: - All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are today. - Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 If it's that obvious that these changes need to be made why would you wait 3 years to implement? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 51 minutes ago, cny rider said: If it's that obvious that these changes need to be made why would you wait 3 years to implement? The general public couldn't possibly handle a year with Covid AND a removal of weather advisories...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? That's pretty much what they do anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Gfs pretty active in the LR, hopefully we can hit on one of these lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? Different zones have different snow thresholds that trigger the warning level based on snowfall in a period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 BGM has these numbers for tomorrow night into Saturday, but only "50% chances." This map is the same as their "highest totals" though. BUF's is below that. (Looks like another jackpot for Blizz over to Tully and Cazenovia.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Gfs tries on the 14th but starts to get suppressed south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Another system on the 16th that starts as rain/mix-snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Another system on the 16th that starts as rain/mix-snow.. That seems to be a prime time period for major snowstorms around here. 2017 we had 2 feet on March 14-15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 For tonight/tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 For S&g.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Hrrr not impressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For S&g.. Lock it in! Would put me over 100" for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! I wouldn't worry, there will be skiing in the dacks till may with the base and still favorable snowmaking conditions. Transient warmth be damned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Canadian with a miller B type system mid month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Gfs with a weak wave on the 12th and a cutter for the 15th/16th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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