wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 End of the gfs run.. Doing what it does best lol Spring like system.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Mid 30s down to the gulf coast verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’ve heard the same, local Mets brought it up as well. Next week looks like the one week and back to wintrier type weather. This is exactly why mud lasts well into April many years and some places to May. I really believe in a lot of ways it’s why people associate us with long winters because springs around her more often than not do not get spring like for good until mid May. Good point. My first spring here consisted of several snowfalls in April with the last week of April having a couple ground-coverings. Then last year, there were snowfalls through April with the last one in Mid-May when we got 2 inches during the middle of the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 April is certainly the cruelest month in upstate NY. Just when you think you're out of winter.....they pull you back in! I can already see it coming when we are all enjoying 55F and warm bright sunshine next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Definitely a few winners in there..Long ways out though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 European D10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European D10.. That’s definitely a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 A hit for Buffalo...Lol...can a low pressure go somewhere OTHER than SW NY this season? Even though it's 10 days away...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: A hit for Buffalo...Lol...can a low pressure go somewhere OTHER than SW NY this season? Even though it's 10 days away...... Yeah, Michigan lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, Michigan lol Ha! Those have been the two main tracks these past 5 years. Up Lake Michigan or up Lake Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 18Z Nam 3k and Rgem especially are showing a nice little event for Friday night into Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Aloft, an upper level trough will remain anchored over the area through the end of the work week and weekend. This will instill cold air aloft at 850mb to drop into the mid negative teens Celsius, which will be cold enough to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario, but mainly south of Lake Ontario. All this said, additional moisture from a few shortwave passages Friday night and Saturday will support the more widespread lake effect snow showers. Overall, day to day accumulations of up to an inch are possible throughout the entirety of the period. Aside from the lake effect, the aforementioned cold air aloft will provide for below normal temperatures for the end of the week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Under the influence of the high, warm air will be advected into the region causing temperatures to gradually warm to near normal for the start of the week before warming to above normal by mid-week. Highs Monday will climb up into the 40s Monday and 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. With a vast majority of the region still under some sort of snowpack, the warm temperatures will warrant melt, which may cause some flooding. This will be monitored as the warm up approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Typical march weather..Cold one week warm the next.. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Friday A chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 12. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Aloft, an upper level trough will remain anchored over the area through the end of the work week and weekend. This will instill cold air aloft at 850mb to drop into the mid negative teens Celsius, which will be cold enough to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario, but mainly south of Lake Ontario. All this said, additional moisture from a few shortwave passages Friday night and Saturday will support the more widespread lake effect snow showers. Overall, day to day accumulations of up to an inch are possible throughout the entirety of the period. Aside from the lake effect, the aforementioned cold air aloft will provide for below normal temperatures for the end of the week and weekend. They put that in there just to troll me, I swear... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: They put that in there just to troll me, I swear... Seriously! Lmao! I have never seen a winter with so much variation- have the snow belts shifted???! LES now target SW Onondaga county on the regular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Seriously! Lmao! I have never seen a winter with so much variation- have the snow belts shifted???! LES now target SW Onondaga county on the regular Haha! Yep! They have bulls-eyed all winter! I wish somebody down there in the Tully area kept track this winter...they are probably over 100 inches on this winter..wouldn't be surprised if some spots had double what we've had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 51 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Seriously! Lmao! I have never seen a winter with so much variation- have the snow belts shifted???! LES now target SW Onondaga county on the regular 30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Haha! Yep! They have bulls-eyed all winter! I wish somebody down there in the Tully area kept track this winter...they are probably over 100 inches on this winter..wouldn't be surprised if some spots had double what we've had. Thought I'd post this on the conversation we're having... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thought I'd post this on the conversation we're having... Can’t make this sh** up anymore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Up to 98.9 for season snowfall. Need 9.7 to tie for 10th snowiest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, SyracuseStorm said: Can’t make this sh** up anymore... The other models show it even more. Southern Onondaga, Northern Cortland, and SW Madison (all higher elevations) cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 29 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Up to 98.9 for season snowfall. Need 9.7 to tie for 10th snowiest. Curious if that's up at the airport on the hilltop or downtown. Downtown BGM and along 81/17 they seem to get waaaay less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Gfs with a LR R-S scenario.. I think this is the event some of the GEFS members are pointing to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Found ourselves a winner lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Found ourselves a winner lol Book it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Lets end the winter with a bang.... why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Found ourselves a winner lol Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2021 Author Share Posted March 4, 2021 Has been snowing here all morning, roads are all covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 12 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Curious if that's up at the airport on the hilltop or downtown. Downtown BGM and along 81/17 they seem to get waaaay less. KBGM site is up on the hill at the airport. In most winters I'd say the valley floor averages a foot less snow over an entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Moderate to Heavy snow here for the past hour and a half. Ground almost completely covered. Tapering off now. We'll see if it picks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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