rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 I’ll believe the warm up when it happens. About a week ago, we were looking at a warm up for now. These backdoor fronts are murder to predict. They sometimes hold on much longer than the models expect. Unfortunately, our storm set up has gone to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2021 Author Share Posted March 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll believe the warm up when it happens. About a week ago, we were looking at a warm up for now. These backdoor fronts are murder to predict. They sometimes hold on much longer than the models expect. Unfortunately, our storm set up has gone to Bermuda. I'm not sure about Rochester but we just had a week of 40s-50s here in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not sure about Rochester but we just had a week of 40s-50s here in Buffalo. 50s and 60s next week will be nice. Isnt the full retreat of winter but even if we sneak in another storm it will be pointless (for me) the ground will warm rapidly and even a 4-8" snowfall in March is normally gone within days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Some flakes starting here, NWS has a light accumulation this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. There should be a break as the snow moves east before snow moves back across the entire Tug Hill region as an approaching shortwave trough and surface trough move south from the Ottawa Valley. Minor accumulations expected with 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill. Weather will remain quiet across Western NY Wednesday morning with increasing clouds. As the surface trough nears Lake Ontario, forcing and an increase in moisture will increase the chance for rain and snow showers across Western NY Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. during this period. This will support temps that will be solidly below normal...especially during the day. The only real weather this period will be the passage of an arctic front Wednesday night. This will generate some snow showers throughout the region to open this period while setting the stage for nuisance lake snow showers in the ensuing periods. Given H85 temps that will average in the minus teens c...the northwest flow Thursday through Friday night will support some nuisance lake snow showers...mainly southeast of Lk Ontario. Otherwise...mainly fair weather can be expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The longwave pattern will become progressive during this period with the western ridge sliding east. This will allow for Pacific modified air to flood the country...which eventually will lead to a PRONOUNCED warm up for our region at the end of this forecast period...and particularly the second half of next week. The mercury will climb well into the 50s across the western counties by Tuesday with 60s possible just outside of the scope of this package. The warm up will be accompanied by mainly dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 I suppose if we have a big warmup next week, I'd definitely prefer it with that dry forecast. Less mud and more pleasant for enjoying the outdoors. Although I will undoubtedly still be saddened in watching the snow vanish. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not sure about Rochester but we just had a week of 40s-50s here in Buffalo. We had one really warm day. A few mildish days. Nearly climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2021 Author Share Posted March 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: We had one really warm day. A few mildish days. Nearly climo Here are the temps for the last week. Definitely warmer in Buffalo then Roc. Not climo though. Buffalo Day H L Age. Departure 22 38 29 34 +7 23 36 30 33 +5 24 53 33 43 +15 25 35 28 32 +4 26 41 22 32 +4 27 42 31 37 +8 28 49 32 41 +12 1 49 18 34 +5 Average Departure: +7.5 Rochester 22 37 28 33 +5 23 38 30 34 +6 24 54 27 41 +13 25 35 24 30 +2 26 39 23 31 +2 27 45 30 38 +9 28 44 26 35 +6 1 46 16 31 +2 Average Departure: +5.63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 13 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: 50s and 60s next week will be nice. Isnt the full retreat of winter but even if we sneak in another storm it will be pointless (for me) the ground will warm rapidly and even a 4-8" snowfall in March is normally gone within days. Yup I agree snow is pointless at this point, will just add to the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Geez150 said: Yup I agree snow is pointless at this point, will just add to the mud. We still have a glacier on the ground hiding the inevitable mud underneath. I’d like to keep it that way for another few weeks, then turn to spring. If we lose the snow now it will just add several weeks to mud season. A few inches of fresh snow would make it feel like mid-winter again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Picked up about 1/2"-3/4" overnight, light snow continues, 27°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Winter still trying to hang around.. Another mixed mess a few days after verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: That's the best the GEFS have looked for us all winter. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Gfs really tries to hold onto the cold air in the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Same goes for the LR even though we know it will change next run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Per usual, Syracuse has already reached its forecasted high for the day...at 10 am...of 40 degrees. Another day of 10 degrees higher than what's forecasted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s.. Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily They definitely like to get a bit toasty lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Onshore flow? Hrrr doesn't have kbuf moving much today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s.. Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily They definitely like to get a bit toasty lol It's ridiculous. I'm ready to move to one of the hilltops south of Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 Looks like high peaks region picked up 6" of snow overnight. Looking good for you @rochesterdave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Onshore flow? Hrrr doesn't have kbuf moving much today.. Yeah, I don't think it will last as long as normal though. Most of the ice is gone already. We should have a normal spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s.. Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily They definitely like to get a bit toasty lol Warm air pushing north quick now lol Jumped up almost 4° in the last 25 minutes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Warm air pushing north quick now lol Jumped up almost 4° in the last 25 minutes.. I stepped outside and faced north. You're welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 This week will likely be slightly below normal. Next week above normal. There are hints during 3rd week of March with a pattern change to colder weather, that might be our last shot at a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Yeah, lots of chatter about the 2nd half of March turning wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 Lots of grass showing up in spots where the sun hits, but still have a few inches on the ground. Boston still with 18". Tomorrow will mark 70 straight days of at least 1" on the ground here, way above normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, I don't think it will last as long as normal though. Most of the ice is gone already. We should have a normal spring. Man if you didn’t just jjnx us all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lots of grass showing up in spots where the sun hits, but still have a few inches on the ground. Boston still with 18". Tomorrow will mark 70 straight days of at least 1" on the ground here, way above normal here. That’s impressive especially during a year where we had such long mild stretches earlier in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, lots of chatter about the 2nd half of March turning wintry. I’ve heard the same, local Mets brought it up as well. Next week looks like the one week and back to wintrier type weather. This is exactly why mud lasts well into April many years and some places to May. I really believe in a lot of ways it’s why people associate us with long winters because springs around her more often than not do not get spring like for good until mid May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now