BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: KBGM at 97.1" as of today's daily Climo report. Another impressive season for them. Which doesn't surprise as they went thru stretches of generally underperforming winters in the recent past, IIRC. I'm a subscriber to the mean reversion concept in many topics... We'll probably pass 100 but unless we get another legit warning level storm or string together some minor events, looking pretty doubtful we crack top 10 snowiest winter list which starts at 108.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Up to 46 degrees here right now. The pace has slowed a bit thanks to a thickening cloud deck but might still hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 53 on my car thermometer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 We're at the point where warm temps and big snows get equal affection from me in the model runs. Give me 6+ or give me 60s! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Nice view of the lake today... That ice is gonna be on the move once the winds back SW and pick up 40-45mph this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice view of the lake today... That ice is gonna be on the move once the winds back SW and pick up 40-45mph this afternoon. Looks like 50% or even a little less to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like 50% or even a little less to me. Big difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Big difference... lol that website sucks, that's not even close. Going forward only using visible satellite for ice coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 41 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: We're at the point where warm temps and big snows get equal affection from me in the model runs. Give me 6+ or give me 60s! I mentioned the other day there were 60’s in the near future the other day! This snowpack will be toast and flooding may be a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: lol that website sucks, that's not even close. Going forward only using visible satellite for ice coverage. I mean why wouldn’t one do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I mean why wouldn’t one do that? Because many winters feature weeks without visible coverage of the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Storm of the Century was remarkable in that models had it for over a week. IN MARCH! Must’ve been a more stable pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I’m with Thinksnow18. Visible satellite is only trustworthy metric. The LES was under forecast due to bad data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: I’m with Thinksnow18. Visible satellite is only trustworthy metric. The LES was under forecast due to bad data. Many times we go weeks with clouds so tough to rely on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Many times we go weeks with clouds so tough to rely on that. Great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Many times we go weeks with clouds so tough to rely on that. This is from the past LES storm. Notice where the model “thinks” there is ice. Bad data bad output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Great point! Not to beat a dead horse but we went 6 weeks straight this winter without a mostly sunny day. A clear visible satellite is absolutely the exception not the norm this time of year. I also think that ice page does a pretty decent job, give them a chance to update the data before acting like they are idiots. Those people know a hell of a lot more about ice cover than any of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Not much to get excited about on the GEFS over the next 9/10 days.. The GEFS have been the opposite of what they were all last year. They've looked blah for much of the season for us this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I'm a little surprised the snowpack is barely melting here with a temp in the mid 40s... it must be super dense and packed now with all the ice layers. The low dewpoint in the 20s and overcast skies are probably helping to reduce melt as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 The cloud deck has become broken and we have hit 52 here. Feels great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm a little surprised the snowpack is barely melting here with a temp in the mid 40s... it must be super dense and packed now with all the ice layers. The low dewpoint in the 20s and overcast skies are probably helping to reduce melt as well. I've been saying this snowpack was legit for weeks (not sure about up near you Matt, as your luck has been horrible). Down here, we racked up just under 50 inches of snow without a thaw, all of that snow compacted down to about 15 inches just before the current thaw hit. That is a seriously dense snowpack that isnt disappearing in a few warm days. It'll be around a couple weeks in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Now that there is like 40% ice coverage on Lake Erie, lets get one more LES event before the season ends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Now that there is like 40% ice coverage on Lake Erie, lets get one more LES event before the season ends! Wow there must’ve been a lot of slush ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Not to beat a dead horse but we went 6 weeks straight this winter without a mostly sunny day. A clear visible satellite is absolutely the exception not the norm this time of year. I also think that ice page does a pretty decent job, give them a chance to update the data before acting like they are idiots. Those people know a hell of a lot more about ice cover than any of us. I wasn’t specifically attacking them, I’ve just noticed the actual ice coverage doesn’t always correspond to the modeled coverage. I’m a huge fan of NWS. If that’s who does that page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I've been saying this snowpack was legit for weeks (not sure about up near you Matt, as your luck has been horrible). Down here, we racked up just under 50 inches of snow without a thaw, all of that snow compacted down to about 15 inches just before the current thaw hit. That is a seriously dense snowpack that isnt disappearing in a few warm days. It'll be around a couple weeks in my opinion. We lost nearly half in last 3 days in Irondequoit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 We have lost a decent amount of snow depth as well with 37° yesterday and 46° today.. Looks like the potential for a "warm" weekend, not sure how much snow can survive..At least most of the ice/snow on the roof is disappearing lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 58 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: We lost nearly half in last 3 days in Irondequoit. I've dropped from 16 to 10 since the weekend but I think its just continuing to condense and not necessarily melt. It's all still there, just even denser. I should try to take a core sample and see what we have for SWE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Topped out at 55 today. Snowpack still 12-14 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I've been saying this snowpack was legit for weeks (not sure about up near you Matt, as your luck has been horrible). Down here, we racked up just under 50 inches of snow without a thaw, all of that snow compacted down to about 15 inches just before the current thaw hit. That is a seriously dense snowpack that isnt disappearing in a few warm days. It'll be around a couple weeks in my opinion. Yeah, as you mentioned in another post, it's really compacted and very dense. Well over a foot left still. The more we get these little melts and freezes, the more it glaciates the snowpack. This upcoming weekend's 40s and rain has me wondering a bit though....the snow lover I am, I would love to keep it a few more weeks. 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: We lost nearly half in last 3 days in Irondequoit. Well, you had lots of lake effect fluff, which disappears so much faster than synoptic (usually). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Dansville blew past all of us and hit 60 degrees today! THEY are the tropics of Upstate NY. Consistently seems to ring in with the maximum high. Sometimes Elmira challenges them...and once in a while the Cuse. Not sure if their thermometer/airport is in a warm microclimate location, or if they truly are primed for maximum downsloping and other warming factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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