BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Where are the kuch maps??? How could I forget... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Those maps kill me. So many bands have been just north of Bville. Now, we're going to be missed by the best just to the south. This area seriously sucks for jackpotting in LES. Whatevers. @Syrmax says it best when he says we in No.. Onondaga nickel and dime our way to average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Surprised the NWS didn't issue a flizzard warning, oh well..Still about half a dusting from Matt.. I'll get there.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Surprised we NWS didn't issue a flizzard warning, oh well..Still about half a dusting from Matt.. I'll get there.. So you got half of my half of a dusting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Some decent members in there for Sunday/Monday.. Surface temps will be the issue.. During this period a progressive, Pacific based flow will occur, with deep cold air locked well to the north, and allowing for milder air from the south to expand northward. Within this flow several shortwaves will bring precipitation to our region, with the most potent shortwave late Sunday night and Monday. With the cold air locked to the north and a milder airmass trying to push northward, precipitation type through the week will be marginal for snow, with likely a mixed precipitation event of sleet and plain rain for each shortwave passage. Temperatures will become milder, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday through Thursday. This will allow for some compaction to the snowpack...and melting, but no flooding expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some decent members in there for Sunday/Monday.. Surface temps will be the issue.. During this period a progressive, Pacific based flow will occur, with deep cold air locked well to the north, and allowing for milder air from the south to expand northward. Within this flow several shortwaves will bring precipitation to our region, with the most potent shortwave late Sunday night and Monday. With the cold air locked to the north and a milder airmass trying to push northward, precipitation type through the week will be marginal for snow, with likely a mixed precipitation event of sleet and plain rain for each shortwave passage. Temperatures will become milder, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday through Thursday. This will allow for some compaction to the snowpack...and melting, but no flooding expected. This is why I just can't give this winter a good grade. The synoptic setup... Such a kick in the butt when there is plenty of cold down south and they get a train of snow events...then just a few days later, "cold is locked in the north" and we get a train of mixed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Couple interesting tid bits... Winter like for sure past few weeks... we are at 13 days now with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Wonder if they put up Advs for southern Erie? RGEM pretty consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 No matter how this winter went, this is extremely impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wonder if they put up Advs for southern Erie? RGEM pretty consistent You can borrow our WSW (where it won't snow). Interest rates (variable of course) are rock bottom low on the loan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Notice this little bit of f*ckery. Typical. Its bad when you're being trolled hard by the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just booked a trip to south Florida in middle of March, so plan on a big storm during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No matter how this winter went, this is extremely impressive I always find it humorous that media outlets use such negative, dramatic terminology towards winter weather... "punished" and "plagued"... I mean, I know it's been harsh for those places and they aren't prepared...but I don't find winter weather "punishing" at all. Rather, the heat of summer "wreaks brutal havoc on layers of my epidermis and murders me by causing a great removal of water from my physical body; In which I assault an air conditioner as I desperately struggle for survival as the enemy reigns on for 90+ days." But you won't ever hear that in the headlines... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Snowing moderately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 0z RGEM, GFS, and GFS v16 look about same as 18z for band placement. NAM 3k 1 hour panels had a few different streamers that seemed to consolidate into a stronger band from Wayne to Cortland county, which also shows up well on the precip map. Since it's only a 60 hour run and about 30-36 hour period of snow, the map is a little more messy since it goes from H12-60. RGEM GFS GFS v16 NAM 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Snowing moderately. Light but steady here. Looks like half an inch maybe just eyeballing. Edit: moderate snow now. Nice flake structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 0z Euro doesn't have quite as pronounced band as it did on 18z and looks a tick south vs 18z. The 1 hour panels also show it being less than 24 hours of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Based on 18/0z runs, Cortland and Madison should get some sort of flag. Possibly Chenango and Tompkins as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 BGM brings the 6-8 into Cortland and Madison now but doesn't issue anything still. Meanwhile Seneca is no longer in the heavy snow and keeps their WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM brings the 6-8 into Cortland and Madison now but doesn't issue anything still. Meanwhile Seneca is no longer in the heavy snow and keeps their WSW. Please stop with your logic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM brings the 6-8 into Cortland and Madison now but doesn't issue anything still. Meanwhile Seneca is no longer in the heavy snow and keeps their WSW. Given the past week or so, count your blessings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Moderate snow here still. Picked up 2.2 overnight to go with the .5 from yesterday, so 2.7 total for my 26 hour WWA to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wonder if they put up Advs for southern Erie? RGEM pretty consistent I mean that 5.7 is KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Kbuf latest map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean that 5.7 is KBUF 12" over my house. No way we see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Colder air in the wake of the trough will start to move across the region late this afternoon and particularly tonight. This will allow for at least a moderate lake response on a west to northwest flow. While it will certainly be cold enough for lake induced instability...there remains uncertainty as to the steering flow... and for Lake Erie the amount of open water. Accumulations of at least 3-5 inches will be found southeast of both lakes tonight... with potentially several more inches possible in the lee of an nearly ice free Lk Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lake effect snows with some accumulations ESE of both lakes on Saturday. Lake snows weaken Saturday night with synoptic moisture stripping away and the influence from the incoming sfc ridge tracking across the lower Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow NWS pretty high with totals 8-12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Totals 1.3" total here Snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 8 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I always find it humorous that media outlets use such negative, dramatic terminology towards winter weather... "punished" and "plagued"... I mean, I know it's been harsh for those places and they aren't prepared...but I don't find winter weather "punishing" at all. Rather, the heat of summer "wreaks brutal havoc on layers of my epidermis and murders me by causing a great removal of water from my physical body; In which I assault an air conditioner as I desperately struggle for survival as the enemy reigns on for 90+ days." But you won't ever hear that in the headlines... That's because warm weather doesn't cause nearly the issues that cold weather and snow do, especially across the south. 8 million people were without power and 12 million people have to boil water, those are some insane stats. That is not counting the amount of deaths and injuries from car accidents. You cannot honestly compare 90 and sunny to 20 and blizzard conditions. Almost everyone has AC in their house and car now a days and pools in their backyards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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