BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 Winter is going to be loosening her grip the next few weeks. I feel pretty confident in an above average March. Hoping we get one more synoptic event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 @BGM Blizzard Do you have the EPO forecast for the last few weeks? Seems like the -AO was our main driver with the Polar Vortex into the middle of the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There was a lot more open water than what was showing up on this website. If models are using this data than it needs to change, its highly inaccurate That’s no where near 86% ice. Eastern 1/3 of the lake is a huge open pool. Explains why yesterday’s event over performed by so much. The GLERL map is always a bit over done on the ice cover but that’s over done by a lot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Winter is going to be loosening her grip the next few weeks. I feel pretty confident in an above average March. Hoping we get one more synoptic event. Can't trust 2 day forecasts let alone 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Can't trust 2 day forecasts let alone 2 weeks. Temps are pretty easy to predict 1-2 weeks in advance. Storms I agree are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Semi cutter on the 12z, hits enough confluence to go south of us but messy verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Canadian is pretty active over the next 10 days, but each system runs the risk of mixing/rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @BGM Blizzard Do you have the EPO forecast for the last few weeks? Seems like the -AO was our main driver with the Polar Vortex into the middle of the country WxBell only seems to have teleconnection forecasts from current day forward. Found this site though that has the observed values back to 1948 apparently... Teleconnection Main page link: https://www.wisconsinwx.com/teleconnections#EPO EPO daily observed values 1948-present: https://www.wisconsinwx.com/observations/teleconnections/EPO.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: WxBell only seems to have teleconnection forecasts from current day forward. Found this site though that has the observed values back to 1948 apparently... Teleconnection Main page link: https://www.wisconsinwx.com/teleconnections#EPO EPO daily observed values 1948-present: https://www.wisconsinwx.com/observations/teleconnections/EPO.txt The polar vortex was the reason for the cold in Feb. We had a -EPO in conjunction with it for about a week but -AO was the cause of the Feb cold. Interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian is pretty active over the next 10 days, but each system runs the risk of mixing/rain.. March is on average our busiest synoptic month by far. The wave lengths start to go further north and allow a general storm track near our location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Since you mention it, here the latest EPO forecast off the EPS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Spring can't come soon enough! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Since you mention it, here the latest EPO forecast off the EPS... With the AO going positive as well as EPO we are going to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: With the AO going positive as well as EPO we are going to warm up. Yeah it looks that way. Even the models that have a storm track to the south of NY over the next 7-15 days didn't look too favorable for snow due to lack of cold air supply. Would need something to bomb out and create its own cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah it looks that way. Even the models that have a storm track to the south of NY over the next 7-15 days didn't look too favorable for snow due to lack of cold air supply. It's been a pretty good February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's been a pretty good February. Agreed. BUT... that back to back synoptic busts still stings. Could have been a record breaking month for snowfall across the forum and erased most of the YTD deficits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Made it above freezing today, it's been a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 In the past 30 days only Feb 4th and 5th were above freezing until today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Spring can't come soon enough! Yup. When we can't get anything to line up for us, time to wave the flag. We can't seem to have the cold air when the track moves closer. PA has been doing it and other places in the country...but here? Nope. Perhaps that will change and we can get some surprises. But not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup. When we can't get anything to line up for us, time to wave the flag. We can't seem to have the cold air when the track moves closer. PA has been doing it and other places in the country...but here? Nope. Perhaps that will change and we can get some surprises. But not holding my breath. Statistical analysis states regression to the mean for those places and next year we have an all time winter right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 13 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Hopefully March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lion..lol Straight up blizzard from SYR to BUF. Yes, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Straight up blizzard from SYR to BUF. Yes, please. You must not have looked at the 12Z. Our blizzard is now a mix. Would you expect anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: You must not have looked at the 12Z. Our blizzard is now a mix. Would you expect anything else? Yeah, I mean, we're 9 days out. At least we're in the game. There's going to be something major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Statistical analysis states regression to the mean for those places and next year we have an all time winter right? I sure hope so! Was doing a little bit of research and found this (hopefully this doesn't become a decade "worse" than the 60s) Syracuse Season totals (60% winters less than 100 inches). The 4 other winters bring the average for that decade to 101 inches. Only 1 (perhaps 2) was a little bit above normal. 1960-1961 130.5 1961-1962 77.3 1962-1963 116.6 1963-1964 83.8 1964-1965 97.3 1965-1966 118.8 1966-1967 83.0 1967-1968 81.2 1968-1969 97.9 1969-1970 125.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 How was lake Erie not more ice covered after such a cold February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Next 10 days on the euro.. QPF and Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Next 10 days on the euro.. QPF and Snowfall The models showing that stripe of snow going across Canada to the north..locking cold air in to the north...is a clear sign of a +AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 I have a lot of videos to upload but here is the first aftermath video in the Eden Hills. The 2nd best jeb walk of the year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Ukmet over the next 6 days, QPF and Snowfall.. Little stronger with the precipitation then the european but also has mixing/rain in the forecast.. Unlike the last few years the pattern/teleconnections are getting worse as we had into late season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I sure hope so! Was doing a little bit of research and found this (hopefully this doesn't become a decade "worse" than the 60s) Syracuse Season totals (60% winters less than 100 inches). The 4 other winters bring the average for that decade to 101 inches. Only 1 (perhaps 2) was a little bit above normal. 1960-1961 130.5 1961-1962 77.3 1962-1963 116.6 1963-1964 83.8 1964-1965 97.3 1965-1966 118.8 1966-1967 83.0 1967-1968 81.2 1968-1969 97.9 1969-1970 125.5 During the winter of 1965-66, 42 of the 118 inches came during the Blizzard of 66. So only 76 inches fell during the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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