SyracuseStorm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 27 minutes ago, Syrmax said: It's actually hard to get more than 4 or 5" of LES at a time here. It does happen but usually it's just window dressing. But when synoptic fails it's more noticeable. This LES event looks to be mainly south and west of us. We'll pick up some scraps for maybe a couple of inches. You have a slightly better chance being a bit west of me. Our best shot is early in the event as models push the projected band south with time. Which is really odd and I don't understand why but i have seen this play out many times before. On to the next one... Not giving up on band placement as these models have done a piss poor job all winter. They are all pretty dialed in, which means it is not dialed in IMO. Call me an optimist but these bands will fluctuate and happy we are not in the bullseye right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 12z Nam 3k, GFS, GFS v16, and RGEM. Does seem like the projected flow may be shifting to be a bit more NW resulting in a less organized band potentially? Nam 3k GFS GFS v16 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z Nam 3k, GFS, GFS v16, and RGEM. Does seem like the projected flow may be shifting to be a bit more NW resulting in a less organized band potentially? Nam 3k GFS GFS v16 RGEM blue dot over my house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: blue dot over my house. Looks like blue stripes over @tim123 and @96blizz houses as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: blue dot over my house. Band is not going to be that far north. It’s more a WNW flow. Band will be from Eden to Boston Hills. RGEM has such a bad northern bias. I can’t tell you how many times the RGEM showed a band making it up here only for it to stay a solid 10+ miles to my south. It’s literally the only model showing anything that far north right now. I’d count on D-2” if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Not giving up on band placement as these models have done a piss poor job all winter. They are all pretty dialed in, which means it is not dialed in IMO. Call me an optimist but these bands will fluctuate and happy we are not in the bullseye right now. You're probably correct. LOL. I think the. Est shot IMBY is earlier than later in the event. Eventually, this weird shaped band will push S&W but I'm hopeful for a couple/few inches before it slides south. I'm actually skeptical of the qpf location. Seems like the band will fall off the lake as we've seen so many times. It could reorient more NW then, which would make more sense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Band is not going to be that far north. It’s more a WNW flow. Band will be from Eden to Boston Hills. RGEM has such a bad northern bias. I can’t tell you how many times the RGEM showed a band making it up here only for it to stay a solid 10+ miles to my south. It’s literally the only model showing anything that far north right now. I’d count on D-2” if I were you. It has hit here several times this year though. KBUF thinks it will too https://www.weather.gov/buf/winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: You're probably correct. LOL. I think the. Est shot IMBY is earlier than later in the event. Eventually, this weird shaped band will push S&W but I'm hopeful for a couple/few inches before it slides south. I'm actually skeptical of the qpf location. Seems like the band will fall off the lake as we've seen so many times. It could reorient more NW then, which would make more sense. Well this is just f***ing lazy forecasting...bout to call KBGH: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 8 inches possible. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Now that's a first for me lol Not sure I've ever seen a 1"-8" forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well this is just f***ing lazy forecasting...bout to call KBGH: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 8 inches possible. I've never seen that before. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah but either way its much easier to be homeless in summer then in winter. I'd love to be a beach bum some day in Hawaii vs trying to survive a northern US winter. I agree but if not for air conditioning Florida would still be a swampy wasteland, same for much of the deep south. Tens of thousands would die of heat without electricity, but people can easily dress warm enough to survive. Id say that we are in quite the goldilocks zone should shit ever hit the fan and the grid taken out for a long time, IE Carrington event, EMP, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 The one thing I will say about the rgem is it has7" (Kuchera) for kbuf when most guidance has an inch, two tops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The one thing I will say about the rgem is it has7" (Kuchera) for kbuf when most guidance has an inch, two tops.. Most of the WRF models hit here with a good band, not KBUF though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've never seen that before. LOL Someone should draw a geographical map of where that one inch will be... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 GFS has it farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Basic thing is this: south shore lake effect remains mostly un-forecastable. It’s a guess. Seems like a decent setup but we simply will not know until the snow is falling (or not). Warnings would be silly, at least in my thinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well this is just f***ing lazy forecasting...bout to call KBGH: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 8 inches possible. Used my speed dial and got this response: "We've got you covered. From 1 inch at CNY's home in Brewtown to 8 inches at blizz's house in Ska-nay-nay....stay tuned, as 100 mile shifts could always occur." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Band is not going to be that far north. It’s more a WNW flow. Band will be from Eden to Boston Hills. RGEM has such a bad bias. I can’t tell you how many times the RGEM showed a band making it up here only for it to stay a solid 10+ miles to my south. It’s literally the only model showing anything that far north right now. I’d count on D-2” if I were you. Changed northern to just BAD...you’re welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well this is just f***ing lazy forecasting...bout to call KBGH: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 8 inches possible. In some fairness, they do break it down a bit in the additional details section. And it is likely that some portions of the watch maybe only get 1 or 2 inches (mostly because of Seneca County being included in the watch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: In some fairness, they do break it down a bit in the additional details section. And it is likely that some portions of the watch maybe only get 1 or 2 inches (mostly because of Seneca County being included in the watch). We have found the NOC for KBGH and it is BGM Blizzard! Acts of treason are not taken lightly on this forum with this group. You are correct- they did break it down but the 1-8 was still wild to see...and probably a correct forecast for areas impacted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I am in sales and think I’m going to do a range on my next proposal of like $100K to $800K and use uncertainty and the NWS as my rationale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 lake coming alive sooner then expected and drifting north! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I am in sales and think I’m going to do a range on my next proposal of like $100K to $800K and use uncertainty and the NWS as my rationale. That would be quite the deal breaker!!! Lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 My BGM prediction for this afternoon: LESW for Cayuga-Onondaga WWA for Chenango-Cortland-Madison-Tompkins-Senaca Then as the event unfolds, atleast Cortland will be upgraded to a LESW, and Tioga-Broome-Delaware possibly added to WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Lakes will get a major moisture boost from whats over Michigan overnight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's because warm weather doesn't cause nearly the issues that cold weather and snow do, especially across the south. 8 million people were without power and 12 million people have to boil water, those are some insane stats. That is not counting the amount of deaths and injuries from car accidents. You cannot honestly compare 90 and sunny to 20 and blizzard conditions. Almost everyone has AC in their house and car now a days and pools in their backyards. I was about to say if cold weather is easier to handle than 90F, Canada would be loaded with people and cities would be all over. Instead the majority of Canadas 40 million people huddle along the US border where our averages are warmest hahaha. Southern Ontario has 14 million people and Northern Ontario (Sudbury, North bay, Thunder Bay, Timmins) have a grand total of 700-800 thousand. Alberta is a bit of an anomaly but thats because of the big oil and gas sector. Two cities with over 1 million people each that can see winter conditions from September-June. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Syrmax said: It's actually hard to get more than 4 or 5" of LES at a time here. It does happen but usually it's just window dressing. But when synoptic fails it's more noticeable. This LES event looks to be mainly south and west of us. We'll pick up some scraps for maybe a couple of inches. You have a slightly better chance being a bit west of me. Our best shot is early in the event as models push the projected band south with time. Which is really odd and I don't understand why but i have seen this play out many times before. On to the next one... I'm not even sure I'm buying these models just yet wrt placement of the band. I'd imagine this band will be either further to the North by e few - Several miles or to the South. WIll look at soundings to see whats really happening.Seriously though. how many times have either the meso's nail the placement of the bands ahead of time as their always off to a degree and thats the problem, lol! What do we have, 6 meso models? I'm sure one of them has the correct solution, but not a direct replica but close so we'll see which one has the best representation of the band ts trajectory as well as the intensity of the band! The band the past couple days had me in the JP as Wolfie pointed out and from that point on it's been all down hill, lol, but I expected as much because weather changes constantly thats why we can't say its a lock cause it most certainly isn't especially LES. Look what happened just 2 nights ago where we we gonna get several to as much as a foot in some stops and it just shit the bed right in front of us, lol! Never an exact science unfortunately but we can guess as much as we want... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm not even sure I'm buying these models just yet wrt placement of the band. I'd imagine this band will be either further to the North by e few - Several miles or to the South. WIll look at soundings to see whats really happening.Seriously though. how many times have either the meso's nail the placement of the bands ahead of time as their always off to a degree and thats the problem, lol! What do we have, 6 meso models? I'm sure one of them has the correct solution, but not a direct replica but close so we'll see which one has the best representation of the band ts trajectory as well as the intensity of the band! The band the past couple days had me in the JP as Wolfie pointed out and from that point on it's been all down hill, lol, but I expected as much because weather changes constantly thats why we can't say its a lock cause it most certainly isn't especially LES. Look what happened just 2 nights ago where we we gonna get several to as much as a foot in some stops and it just took a shit the bed right in front of us, lol! Never an exact science unfortunately but we can guess as much as we want... Yep NW LES off of Ontario are by far the hardest LES to forecast. LES events off of Erie seem to be much easier to forecast. NW winds are easy around here due to orographic lift in the hills south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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