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Feb 18-19 Storm Obs/Discussion


NorEastermass128
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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

OES cells are brief but great growth... let's hope that maintains this afternoon

Re: seasonal impression: Oct, Dec 17, and Superbowl storms were awesome and overachievers for Boston region. Otherwise has been a frustrating winter.

BOS metro folks (CoastalWx, Henry's Wx, DotRat, Summerthyme, myself and others) had one of the worst letdowns in recent memory in the 2/1 WAA/firehose... hours of heavy and 1-2F colder would've seen 10"+ like just a few miles inland instead of wet asphalt.

 

Maybe some don’t believe or, maybe it’s coping mechanism for me (:lol:) but I was due. There really isn’t much more to say. 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

OES cells are brief but great growth... let's hope that maintains this afternoon

Re: seasonal impression: Oct, Dec 17, and Superbowl storms were awesome and overachievers for Boston region. Otherwise has been a frustrating winter.

BOS metro folks (CoastalWx, Henry's Wx, DotRat, Summerthyme, myself and others) had one of the worst letdowns in recent memory in the 2/1 WAA/firehose... hours of heavy and 1-2F colder would've seen 10"+ like just a few miles inland instead of wet asphalt.

 

Dec 17 was a let down for me, but it was expected....ditto Superbowl event.

The only event that I have zero complaints about this season is Feb 1, which is likely the seasonal capstone.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some don’t believe or, maybe it’s coping mechanism for me (:lol:) but I was due. There really isn’t much more to say. 

Maybe its because they avg less, but interior se Mass over to Steve's area in E CT always seem to pull above avg snowfall out of their asses. I think the only season over the course of the last several that they failed to do so was last year....maybe 2018-2019, too.

I think that area has wrestled the "due for regression" trophy away from your area on the S shore.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe its because they avg less, but interior se Mass over to Steve's area always seem to pull above avg snowfall out of their asses. I think the only season over the course of the last several that they failed to do so was last year....maybe 2018-2019, too.

Even that season. I was cruising to BN until a 16.5” bomb in 6 hrs happened.  So yeah I was due. Probably due for some latitude storms as well where they don’t do as good. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dec 17 was a let down for me, but it was expected....ditto Superbowl event.

The only event that I have zero complaints about this season is Feb 1, which is likely the seasonal capstone.

Not even seeing a flake from this one really stung and makes this winter likely the second consecutive ratter if nothing else delivers.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even that season. I was cruising to BN until a 16.5” bomb in 6 hrs happened.  So yeah I was due. Probably due for some latitude storms as well where they don’t do as good. 

SNE is due for some latitudinal gradient events...I can tell you that from my perch looking down at the rest of SNE over the course of the past three seasons.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some don’t believe or, maybe it’s coping mechanism for me (:lol:) but I was due. There really isn’t much more to say. 

We've had an amazing stretch, not to mention Feb 2015. Should be an easy tradeoff!

But the natural tendency for snow lovers (myself included) is to recalibrate expectations higher, not accept regression to the mean lol

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

We've had an amazing stretch, not to mention Feb 2015. Should be an easy tradeoff!

But the natural tendency for snow lovers is to recalibrate expectations higher, not accept regression to the mean lol

Looking back a decade....I have only had three well above normal seasons....2010-2011, 2014-2015, and 2017-2018. There are also a couple of ratters in there to off set.

People keep lumping interior NE MA in with that and it really isn't as extreme here.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking back a decade....I have only had three well above normal seasons....2010-2011, 2014-2015, and 2017-2018. There are also a couple of ratters in there to off set.

People keep lumping interior NE MA in with that an it really isn't as extreme here.

My avg over the past 11 seasons is about 66"....which is around 3" above avg.

Big deal-

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How do you think round 3 plays out? Will we have one last period of accumulations regionwide or is it mainly an E Mass thing?

It might fringe you. To be honest, I'm not exactly sure, but I'm hopeful it expands enough to clip you guys since that would mean more residence time here. I think this may just sort of blossom a bit this aftn and evening, but it may not be organized..perhaps like 15-20DBZ stuff and maybe a band 25+ or higher. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It might fringe you. To be honest, I'm not exactly sure, but I'm hopeful it expands enough to clip you guys since that would mean more residence time here. I think this may just sort of blossom a bit this aftn and evening, but it may not be organized..perhaps like 15-20DBZ stuff and maybe a band 25+ or higher. 

At this point just me to 3” . Hopefully at least can muster another half inch 

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HRRR blossoms this stuff more over the next 2-3 hours and has it going decently through this evening. We'll see....if that happens, then some spots could pick up another couple inches...most likely out east, but any lucky bands could produce further west too.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR blossoms this stuff more over the next 2-3 hours and has it going decently through this evening. We'll see....if that happens, then some spots could pick up another couple inches...most likely out east, but any lucky bands could produce further west too.

Stuck at a half inch here. Temp just creeped up to 33F too. 

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