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Feb 18-19 Storm Obs/Discussion


NorEastermass128
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26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good luck to you too over there. You always need things timed right lol..even in great patterns, we’ve seen that all winter and with this event ongoing now, I mean places to our southwest are killing it with 12+.  
 

I’m just tired of the winter over posts on Feb 19th. It’s silly and nonsensical.  This is not late FEB/March of ‘12.  And if it happens to be that’s fine too, but it’s not. 

Always be aware of the short wavelenghts

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It's definitely been a NJ to srn CT type winter relative to normal for sure. But to Wolfie's point....that area does need a lot to be timed and worked out. They avg 25-35" for a reason and that is because you need things like cold and blocking. Up here, we have been pulling stuff out of our fannies even in crap patterns. I also don't avg 50-60" of snow, so a little regression was due. I managed pre Halloween, December 17th, and the SB Sunday storm to be a little better than I thought. I'll take that. Missing 2/1 was the bigger issue. Currently Just AN in snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Negative implies poo pooing or purposely being biased on something that should not be. In that case, my job would be jeopardized. The problem with weenies is that they interpret when you sort of meh something or just downplay or call it how it is, as being negative.  I said this storm would be no big deal, light, etc. I think all are true. And yes, even for those in the 20s, very light returns will have trouble accumulating during the day in the spots outside of cold surfaces. Most areas will tickly up to near 30-32 outside of high spots.

All correct.


And maybe what I meant was, you can hear/sense/feel the tenor and the irritation in your posts. Sure things can be meh going forward, most likely that’s the case. But that does not equate to spring popping in the next week and lasting imo.  
 

But maybe it does??  
 

But We’ve had a solid year here in the west. No complaints. I’m not minding this long light wintry feel system here, adding to the stats. We/I take.  I feel there will be somemore snow to come before we close the curtain on 20-21.  

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that band over Philly gonna rotate up across region or slink east?

HRRR actually weakens it, but if it maintains, it will def get some of the area....it'll be close for your area looking at the trajectory. There's going to be stuff pulsing up and down all day....it prob gets a little more organized after about lunchtime for the final push to get additional accumulations.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

All correct.


And maybe what I meant was, you can hear/sense/feel the tenor and the irritation in your posts. Sure things can be meh going forward, most likely that’s the case. But that does not equate to spring popping in the next week and lasting imo.  
 

But maybe it does??  
 

But We’ve had a solid year here in the west. No complaints. I’m not minding this long light wintry feel system here, adding to the stats. We/I take.  I feel there will be somemore snow to come before we close the curtain on 20-21.  

If there is, that is probably because of correcting Kevin :lol:  Some people shut down when they get screwed, I think watching white rain on 2/1 while 10 miles west piled up a foot and still posting about the storm for others says a lot. I enjoy posting and yeah I will throw in a snarky comment sometimes to get a few laughs, but I'm not insulting or disrespectful to anybody. I've never done that and never will. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR actually weakens it, but if it maintains, it will def get some of the area....it'll be close for your area looking at the trajectory. There's going to be stuff pulsing up and down all day....it prob gets a little more organized after about lunchtime for the final push to get additional accumulations.

I was thinking once that s/w moves in, stuff from the west should sort of blossom east. But yeah, we watch that stuff near Philly.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely been a NJ to srn CT type winter relative to normal for sure. But to Wolfie's point....that area does need a lot to be timed and worked out. They avg 25-35" for a reason and that is because you need things like cold and blocking. Up here, we have been pulling stuff out of our fannies even in crap patterns. I also don't avg 50-60" of snow, so a little regression was due. I managed pre Halloween, December 17th, and the SB Sunday storm to be a little better than I thought. I'll take that. Missing 2/1 was the bigger issue. Currently Just AN in snowfall.

Starting to look like I am going to endure my third consecutive below average season for only the fifth time since 1956....only other times that has happened in recorded history are 72-73 through 74-75 (barely), 78-79 through 80-81, 88-89 through 91-92, and 97-98 through 99-00.

88-89 through 91-92 is the only time that the streak has gone four years.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Starting to look like I am going to endure my third consecutive below average season for only the fifth time since 1956....only other times that has happened in recorded history are 72-72 through 74-75 (barely), 78-79 through 80-81, 88-89 through 91-92, and 97-98 through 99-00.

88-89 through 91-92 is the only time that the streak has gone four years.

You'll be happy to know that ORH will avoid a 3rd below avg season in a row. They are nearly already at their seasonal average.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll be happy to know that ORH will avoid a 3rd below avg season in a row. They are nearly already at their seasonal average.

I expect that.....even the biggest IMBY weenie on the planet knows not  get in a climadick measuring contest with ORH.

Anyway, one solidly above average season since 2014-2015, so the whole regression argument is beginning to lose some steam with  me.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll be happy to know that ORH will avoid a 3rd below avg season in a row. They are nearly already at their seasonal average.

Pretty close also at BOS.   They are at 34.5 as of 7AM today   They’ll need 10 more tho and it’s getting late.

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