DavisStraight Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Lol, that radar looks pretty putrid... It does here, was that snow on the Cape and Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I have no idea at this point, I learned today that my beliefs in how the atmosphere works was WRONG. The se ridge+polar vortex in Maine actually does the opposite of what I thought, it does not create a boundary for cyclogenesis, but it shreds storms. Also we are in a fast flow pattern which makes bombogenesis more difficult to occur. La Niña also apparently doesn’t cool off the oceans like I thought, meteorology is complicated and not intuitive at all. My forecast could still be right, but if it is it will be because of the wrong reasons. I have a confession to make, I don’t really know anything whatsoever about meteorology, but I am trying to learn by making forecasts and when they bust doing a post Mortem to figure out where I went wrong. Regardless it was fun to track this storm and the post mortem analysis will be interesting. One things that gives me hope though is often the bands push farther west than expected, which may help my forecast not turn into a total bust. I'm riveted, waiting for your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Snow has picked up to steady and borderline moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one seems to know or wants to answer.. what you thinking for south of pike folks amounts, timing etc? Light snow on and off all night, moderate stuff in the afternoon tapers off around midnight. 4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I have no idea at this point, I learned today that my beliefs in how the atmosphere works was WRONG. The se ridge+polar vortex in Maine actually does the opposite of what I thought, it does not create a boundary for cyclogenesis, but it shreds storms. Also we are in a fast flow pattern which makes bombogenesis more difficult to occur. La Niña also apparently doesn’t cool off the oceans like I thought, meteorology is complicated and not intuitive at all. My forecast could still be right, but if it is it will be because of the wrong reasons. I have a confession to make, I don’t really know anything whatsoever about meteorology, but I am trying to learn by making forecasts and when they bust doing a post Mortem to figure out where I went wrong. Regardless it was fun to track this storm and the post mortem analysis will be interesting. A good man, just a bad wizard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This morning I saw you saying that yes.. but all the TV forecasts last night and this morning said very light stuff today with main action tonight and tomorrow. So there’s no way they can claim they forecast that . Yea I don’t think anyone had the 2 per hour quick burst. That was supposed to be over LI from what I heard this morning on TV. But we called it here with that 800-600 band sitting on LI you knew just north was getting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Light snow on and off all night, moderate stuff in the afternoon tapers off around midnight. 4/5 Nice and thanks. Radar looks pretty good so hopefully things continue congealing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea I don’t think anyone had the 2 per hour quick burst. That was supposed to be over LI from what I heard this morning on TV. But we called it here with that 800-600 band sitting on LI you knew just north was getting it They didn’t . They’re claiming that was included in their forecasts but it wasn’t . They all were saying light non road issues today with meat tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I have no idea at this point, I learned today that my beliefs in how the atmosphere works was WRONG. The se ridge+polar vortex in Maine actually does the opposite of what I thought, it does not create a boundary for cyclogenesis, but it shreds storms. Also we are in a fast flow pattern which makes bombogenesis more difficult to occur. La Niña also apparently doesn’t cool off the oceans like I thought, meteorology is complicated and not intuitive at all. My forecast could still be right, but if it is it will be because of the wrong reasons. I have a confession to make, I don’t really know anything whatsoever about meteorology, but I am trying to learn by making forecasts and when they bust doing a post Mortem to figure out where I went wrong. Regardless it was fun to track this storm and the post mortem analysis will be interesting. One things that gives me hope though is often the bands push farther west than expected, which may help my forecast not turn into a total bust. I'm afraid we have no choice but to revoke your "double O" status for the time being. Tough break, chum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm riveted, waiting for your forecast Actually the kid made a great post. I was nostradummass when I started out. That’s why I always say to young newbies, read read read 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol yeah the high res models all had that band tickling the coast. No surprise here. Right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Down at Gillette again for my wife’s turn while I wait in the car. Hit some light snow as soon as I left the house with wisps blowing across the road. Still snow grainy very light here at Gillette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Radar is shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 La Nina's are called such because they are the cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation index. Basically the ENSO is simply a way of determining a warm or cool phase of the Pacific Ocean equatorial coverage of thunderstorm development due to the forcing caused by warming or cooling of the equator in the Pacific Ocean. You have different regions in which the ENSO is measured, the NINO has different locations that mean different things. A cooling of the equator west of Mexico is a La Nina (cold phase), a warming is a El Nino (warm phase). There are research graphics you can look up on google just for simply verifications. Also, a La Nina favors a Southeast Ridge. Now, while the flow does become compressed as a SE Ridge flexes against the northern stream troughs, it does not mean the flow has to remain progressive, or that bombogenesis does not occur, it just means it occurs too late for the NE CONUS. A large boundary does develop along the NC and SC coastlines but not because of the SE Ridge but because of the natural baroclinic (difference in temperature over a short distance) develops from the presence of the Gulf Stream which is still over 65F. Oceans do not warm or cool quickly, instead their minimums and maximums are offset compared to atmospheric climates. Because the ocean absorbs heat or cooler air, it cools and warms at a much larger rate than the atmosphere does. ENSO phases have nothing to do with Atlantic Ocean temperatures warm or cold. OH the PV is not in Maine, but instead in Canada, it is rather rare the vortex even comes as far south as International Falls, Minnesota. What has been happening in the TEXAS and OK regions is quite rare. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Actually the kid made a great post. I was nostradummass when I started out. That’s why I always say to young newbies, read read read He may be 57 years old fwiw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It does here, was that snow on the Cape and Islands? Yes all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Well. Starting to coat streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, George001 said: I have no idea at this point, I learned today that my beliefs in how the atmosphere works was WRONG. The se ridge+polar vortex in Maine actually does the opposite of what I thought, it does not create a boundary for cyclogenesis, but it shreds storms. Also we are in a fast flow pattern which makes bombogenesis more difficult to occur. La Niña also apparently doesn’t cool off the oceans like I thought, meteorology is complicated and not intuitive at all. My forecast could still be right, but if it is it will be because of the wrong reasons. I have a confession to make, I don’t really know anything whatsoever about meteorology, but I am trying to learn by making forecasts and when they bust doing a post Mortem to figure out where I went wrong. Regardless it was fun to track this storm and the post mortem analysis will be interesting. One things that gives me hope though is often the bands push farther west than expected, which may help my forecast not turn into a total bust. Great post George. I recommend you spend some time reading here. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php free training tools 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ripping good under this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: He may be 57 years old fwiw.... he said somewhere that he was 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: He may be 57 years old fwiw.... 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nice little band taking aim for us right now. Just began snowing decently about 5 min ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Been lightly snowing here again for the last 20-30 minutes. 25.1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I was 14 when I started to learn vigorously on my own about the weather, it was the summer of 2004, man I cannot believe that was 17 years ago, and I am 31. I self taught everything I know about the weather, over seventeen years worth of learning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sun is peaking through now. Dimly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 La Nina's are called such because they are the cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation index. Basically the ENSO is simply a way of determining a warm or cool phase of the Pacific Ocean equatorial coverage of thunderstorm development due to the forcing caused by warming or cooling of the equator in the Pacific Ocean. You have different regions in which the ENSO is measured, the NINO has different locations that mean different things. A cooling of the equator west of Mexico is a La Nina (cold phase), a warming is a El Nino (warm phase). There are research graphics you can look up on google just for simply verifications. Also, a La Nina favors a Southeast Ridge. Now, while the flow does become compressed as a SE Ridge flexes against the northern stream troughs, it does not mean the flow has to remain progressive, or that bombogenesis does not occur, it just means it occurs too late for the NE CONUS. A large boundary does develop along the NC and SC coastlines but not because of the SE Ridge but because of the natural baroclinic (difference in temperature over a short distance) develops from the presence of the Gulf Stream which is still over 65F. Oceans do not warm or cool quickly, instead their minimums and maximums are offset compared to atmospheric climates. Because the ocean absorbs heat or cooler air, it cools and warms at a much larger rate than the atmosphere does. ENSO phases have nothing to do with Atlantic Ocean temperatures warm or cold. OH the PV is not in Maine, but instead in Canada, it is rather rare the vortex even comes as far south as International Falls, Minnesota. What has been happening in the TEXAS and OK regions is quite rare.New chapter in your series?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why can’t we get soundings like this? Getting off track here (as usual for me), but this image is from the UMass radar back on Feb 1, 2011, pointed vertically and rotating underneath (birdbath scan)... spectral width is plotted... notice it's very low all the way to like 7km, indicative of snowfall throughout the entire column... We got like a foot in that event, and it was puking snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Down at Gillette again for my wife’s turn while I wait in the car. Hit some light snow as soon as I left the house with wisps blowing across the road. Still snow grainy very light here at Gillette The wife and I had our first shot yesterday at Wegman's. Was surprised when they called Tuesday saying they still had a small supply left. Probably many are refusing to get the shot. Both of us had a sore arm last night, but it is slowly feeling better today. Tender to the touch in the shot area. Second one March 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, DomNH said: Sun is peaking through now. Dimly. up here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I was 14 when I started to learn vigorously on my own about the weather, it was the summer of 2004, man I cannot believe that was 17 years ago, and I am 31. I self taught everything I know about the weather, over seventeen years worth of learning. That’s pretty cool because while I was obsessed with storms as early as age 4, I became self-fluent with NWS products and weather by age 14-15 too. Believe it or not, it seems it’s much cooler and in Vogue to be into weather in the Midwest and East than out west.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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