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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


wdrag
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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think what CC was seeing could be some partially melted, or flakes with a layer of water on them. Those big fat aggies. It does look like the real mixing is well SW of the city.

That makes sense.  It's consistent with the 3k NAM forecast soundings.  Just barely flirting with 0C at NYC at 17z.  Basically isothermal between about 750 and 800 and not enough of a nudge above to melt anything.  Best chances for a few IP would be around 19z (probably S/IP mix) and then quickly cools it just enough to be all snow with any decent lift.  Assuming the forecast soundings are spot on.

I suspect there are posters who refer to the p-type maps as "soundings" but I can't be sure.

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