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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


wdrag
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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

its like the storm I talked about that happened near the end of Feb 1974...NYC 2"...Freehold 10"...1973-74 was a usefull analog...

 

Indeed, it was. The stratospheric warming wildcard was fascinating, as if that evolved more-so in a displacement rather than split fashion, January likely would have been colder. Retrospectively, the NAO will be near neutral December, negative January, and positive February. But the SSW prevented us from receiving the cold/snow results until later. I thought we'd have most of our snow this winter within a month stretch, but was off on the timing by about 15 days. The magnitude of the snowy period was more impressive than anticipated due to the -AO/blocking this winter.

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Wantage NJ (this part). A conservative 1.4"    fine snow falling at the 730P report 22F. 

I think we should watch for IR enhancement seeding the deep moisture for larger flake and heavier snow rates. EC modeling has a pretty good baroclinic leaf developing e PA/NJ tomorrow morning.  Without radar indication of precip, or satellite enhancement, then it's just small flake snow, I think. 

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6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

So, we got almost all sleet since this post around 1:00 pm, when I cleared the board (it had been 6 hours), and we got another 1/2" of sleet over the last 1.5 hours, so that makes 4.0" of snow/sleet, which includes about 1" of sleet, which is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow (if one uses a conservative 3" sleet to 1" liquid to 10" snow (some use 2.5:1), 1" sleet is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow).  So I have a "snow equivalent" of 6.3", which I'm pretty happy with.  I usually shovel in shots, but I was out today, so I did it all at once and it absolutely felt like ~6" of snow.  Would've been much prettier to have had all snow, but plenty of models were showing sleet up through the 95 corridor, so can't complain.  Would be nice to get another inch or two tonight/tomorrow morning.  We'll see.  

People need to be careful out there. I just woke up from a nap and missed the freezing rain (ZR). We have a decent glaze (guessing 0.05-0.10") on everything and it's slippery on any untreated surface. Luckily I had put salt down where I had shoveled.  

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29 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Exactly 4 inches here.  @ForestHillWx @rgwp96

Freezing drizzle now, very slick.

Roughly the same here based on spotter reports.  Don't know if it's the old piles contributing to the look, the persistent glazing since about 2PM, or both, but after cleaning it up I can say that for 4" this thing definitely outpunched its weight class.

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This has been a great little storm. I've had every type of frozen precip today and it's been coming down non stop for about 12 hours now. Right now it's tiny flakes packing in super dense and laying down a squeaky carpet. I know that the radar says it isn't snowing here but it is, I love that stuff almost as much as the snowglobe heavy fat flakes snow that was faling with the sun out this afternoon.

23/21/ENE Vrbl/SN-

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