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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


wdrag
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The 18z GFS has a solid burst of snow tomorrow afternoon while the 18z 3k NAM has spotty snow at best. The 12z RGEM split the difference and looks similar to the latest long range HRRR. 

Hopefully models are underestimating the snow coverage and intensity tonight, otherwise nobody is getting close to the 7" that was predicted for most.

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1 hour ago, SleetStormNJ said:

I measured about 3.7-3.8 before compaction.

Yeah - a bit of an "under" but not a terrible winter event, definite winter feel still out there.   Looks like some possibility of some nuisance precip through this evening.  

Yeah it was kind of fun. Took the wife to work in the lab and did the "jebwalk" in the sleet for an hour; was kinda neat. Then the ZR arrived; wet at first but now glazing over. Maybe we can eke something else out later ( though I kinda doubt it ).

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z GFS has a solid burst of snow tomorrow afternoon while the 18z 3k NAM has spotty snow at best. The 12z RGEM split the difference and looks similar to the latest long range HRRR. 

Hopefully models are underestimating the snow coverage and intensity tonight, otherwise nobody is getting close to the 7" that was predicted for most.

7 not happening.  Most will be lucky to see another 1-2 inches from this...

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9 minutes ago, doncat said:

Congrats...3.7" here on si.

 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Monmouth magic strikes again ;)  40" on the season?

 

 

Thanks and almost - this event brings me to 38.9" on the season (31.1" since Jan 31st). Today was certainly the definition of a CNJ/Monmouth jackpot. It appears C-NJ/N-NJ, at least through today, has been one of the most favored regions snowfall wise relative to normal, in the DCA-BOS corridor. Our stretch of snow cover was 8 days in December, and Jan 31st-present thus far.

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Back home.  Freezing drizzle in Holbrook.  I'll go with whatever ISP or the other Holbrook guys report as a snow total.  

Didn't bother measuring either.. only interested in +6-inches this year :weenie: it has been drizzling the past hour and a half so I'm sure that has compacted the amounts too by now

wasn't expecting much out here anyway but that burst of heavy snow with huge flakes was nice while it lasted and good to have the snowpack freshen up again..

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NYC members,  think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow?  If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb.  3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK)  and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday.  Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports.  I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP.  

By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80.  Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands.  Let's wait it out and see if they were right. 

Later, Walt

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3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks and almost - this event brings me to 38.9" on the season (31.1" since Jan 31st). Today was certainly the definition of a CNJ/Monmouth jackpot. It appears C-NJ/N-NJ, at least through today, has been one of the most favored regions snowfall wise relative to normal, in the DCA-BOS corridor. Our stretch of snow cover was 8 days in December, and Jan 31st-present thus far.

you'll probably reach 40" tomorrow, I hope NYC does too

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC members,  think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow?  If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb.  3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK)  and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday.  Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports.  I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP.  

By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80.  Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands.  Let's wait it out and see if they were right. 

Later, Walt

I'd be happy getting NYC to 40  JFK looks to be all snow by 7 AM tomorrow- when precip is heavier it'll be snow when it's lighter it'll be something else....this is a typical early spring kind of storm

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since Central Park's 1 pm snowfall report, an additional 0.06" precipitation fell as snow. Yet, unlike JFK and LGA, Central Park reported no additional snowfall. Whether this will result in an undermeasurement remains to be seen, as sometimes Central Park is slow to report its figures.

what are the airport totals so far Don?  No one ever posts them anymore

NYC records are already tainted with regards to wind speed and summer temps, I'm not sure why we continue to use them.

 

 

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