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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

ending here.  The NAM did well with the front end thump idea and sleet intrusion....

If we're riding the NAM looks like there's a second wave that favors interior areas and then a third wave that might give immediate coastal areas another round. We'll have to see if it verifies.

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Don’t get me wrong. I’m very happy with what we got. I just kept hearing a prolonged event with round 2

is it supposed to develop later? 

some models have it late tonight into tomorrow.  I doubt it will come anywhere near what we all had in the initial round....IMO

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Did some "forensics" and closely inspected the snow "column" and I have about 3" of snow underneath about 1/2" of the mixed rimed snow/sleet (was definitely looking like pure sleet in there and others have said we had sleet while I was gone).  If that layer is ~3:1 like most sleet, then 1/2" of it is about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, meaning I would have had about 4.6" of snow if it had been all regular snow, which makes more sense.  Right now it keeps going back and forth between pure sleet (I checked it closely and it's sleet) and giant aggregates of snowflakes - if we could get an hour of these aggregates, we'd accumulate pretty quickly, but I have no clue what we're going to get for the next 1-2 hours whlie we're still getting decent precip.  I did predict "3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period" yesterday for my house, which could end up being close.  

So, we got almost all sleet since this post around 1:00 pm, when I cleared the board (it had been 6 hours), and we got another 1/2" of sleet over the last 1.5 hours, so that makes 4.0" of snow/sleet, which includes about 1" of sleet, which is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow (if one uses a conservative 3" sleet to 1" liquid to 10" snow (some use 2.5:1), 1" sleet is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow).  So I have a "snow equivalent" of 6.3", which I'm pretty happy with.  I usually shovel in shots, but I was out today, so I did it all at once and it absolutely felt like ~6" of snow.  Would've been much prettier to have had all snow, but plenty of models were showing sleet up through the 95 corridor, so can't complain.  Would be nice to get another inch or two tonight/tomorrow morning.  We'll see.  

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17 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

We need a poll after each event for the best new phrase capturing the sentiment "gosh, it's snowing really hard out right now."

My vote is for "righteous poundage."  Credit to whoever coined that one an hour ago.

Nah that's late 80's/early 90's Tahoe/Mammoth verbiage. Think surf crowd lifted 6k feet. Sorry bro ;) 

 

This mist is super fine and encasing everything now. Ick :yikes:

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33 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Hasn't stopped here in Union County NJ (sleet with light snow mix).  Stuck in the stubborn band that might be trying to stretch/fill back in for awhile.

Only the slightest of sleet 2 miles from ya for the last half hour.  Maybe we got 3"?  Very disappointed, was hoping for 6" +, because I'm a greedy duck.  Only reason we got warm air intrusion is because the precip slacked off too quick.

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Just now, Dark Star said:

Only the slightest of sleet 2 miles from ya for the last half hour.  Maybe we got 3"?  Very disappointed, was hoping for 6" +, because I'm a greedy duck.  Only reason we got warm air intrusion is because the precip slacked off too quick.

I measured about 3.7-3.8 before compaction.

Yeah - a bit of an "under" but not a terrible winter event, definite winter feel still out there.   Looks like some possibility of some nuisance precip through this evening.  

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